村落选举、公共性生产与合法性——以陕西Y村为例

转型期中国乡村基层村庄民主选举备受学界关注,学界分别从乡村治理、制度变迁、政治民主等角度考察这一问题。然而这些考察忽略了一个重要维度:乡村公共性主题。笔者认为这一主题才是乡村选举的实质和意涵。通过Y村选举及修路等涉及村落公共事务的个案,笔者考察当前村落选举与村庄公共性生产、村落公意和共识的关系,文章认为当前基层乡村依然延续了差序式的公共性生产模式。这种公共性生产模式与通过选举运作生产公共性的模式之间具有内在张力,正是这种张力导致试图透过西式选举达成村落公意和民众共识的设想在重建当代乡村公共性实践中遇到问题。     

How the Bush and Gore Campaigns Conceptualized and Used the Internet in 2000

Abstract

Political scientists and campaign professionals have been intrigued by the potential of the Internet as a tool for accessing and conveying political information since the mass marketing of the first Web browser in 1993. Optimists have pointed to the possibility for more expansive participation and more substantive, in-depth issue discussions. Pessimists have countered that universal access to the Internet is still years down the road, pointing out there is little reason to believe campaigns will use the Internet either to spice up or to elevate the national political conversation. Such long-term assessments are premature, but we can offer preliminary assessments of how candidates conceptualize and use the Internet. Relying on surveys of online registered voters and interviews with campaign operatives and Webmasters, I examine how the online electorate was perceived and approached by the Bush and Gore campaigns in 2000.1 find that (1) voters were unlikely to seek political information from candidate or party Web sites, (2) voters were skeptical of information presented on these sites, and (3) the campaigns understood this and therefore saw the Internet primarily as a vehicle for internal communication and grassroots activation.     

基于横截面数据的存款保险费率和资本充足率的一致性研究

存款保险费率是评价商业银行风险的重要指标,根据每个商业银行的市场表现可确定其不同的存款保险费率;资本充足率是商业银行抵抗风险的重要保证,资本充足率越高表示商业银行的风险越低。这两个指标对商业银行风险水平的评价本来应该是一致的,但采用多种方法对目前中国上市银行进行检验,都表明其一致性较低。揭示导致这种不一致性的原因,可为这一研究的深入提供新的方向。     

First-order,second-order or third-rate? A comparison of turnout in European,local and national elections in the Netherlands

Second-order elections are characterized by low turnout. According to the second-order theory this is because people feel there is less at stake. This study tests whether the less at stake argument holds at the macro and micro level using panel survey data obtained in three different Dutch elections. Furthermore, it examines whether campaigns' mobilizing potential differs between first- and second-order elections. We find that at the macro level perceived stakes and low turnout go hand in hand and differ strongly between national, local and European elections. At the micro level the impact of perceived stakes on turnout is limited and contingent on the type of election. Also, campaign exposure affects turnout, but the effect is substantially larger in second-order contests.     

A mixed blessing for the left? Early voting,turnout and election outcomes in Norway

Is there a relationship between turnout and election outcomes? Although this is a classic topic in political science, most studies on multiparty systems have important theoretical and empirical shortcomings. First, we argue that the proper implication of the theoretical argument that underpins research on the turnout-vote nexus is that high levels of turnout should typically benefit both traditional social democratic parties and parties of the radical right relative to other types of parties, including not only those of the traditional right, but also ‘left-libertarian’ parties. Second, few have studied the relationship between turnout and election outcomes with a research design that is appropriate for causal inference. In our empirical study, our identification strategy is to exploit a Norwegian reform of early voting rules as an exogenous source of variation in turnout. Our theoretical expectations are largely borne out in our empirical results.     

Distrust as a hindrance to democratic governance in South Korea

This article focuses on the concept of trust and its implications for democratic governance in South Korea. Trust is an elusive concept that is often discussed using such synonyms as confidence, trustworthy, reliance, or anticipation of goodwill. Trust in interpersonal relations is different from trust in institutions. The case of South Korean politics and administration shows that the absence of trust hampers the process of building a mature democratic society and hinders the development of democratic governance. The article concludes by stressing the need to enhance trust in society, government, policy‐makers, and public administrators.     

India 2014: Facebook ‘Like’ as a Predictor of Election Outcomes

Michael Hill and Lian Kwen Fee The Politics of Nation Building and Citizenship in Singapore (London and New York: Routledge, 1995) 285 pp.

Junko Kato, The Problem of Bureaucratic Rationality: Tax Politics In Japan (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).

Joachim Glaubitz, Between Tokyo and Moscow: The History of an Uneasy Relationship, 1972 to the 1990s. (London: Hurst and Company, 1995), pp. XII, 308.

A. Jeyaratnam Wilson, S.J.V. Chelvanayagam and the Crisis of Sri Lankan Tamil Nationalism, 1947–1977 (London: Hurst and Company, 1994).

James Manor (ed.), Nehru to the Nineties : The Changing Office of Prime Minister in India (London : Hurst and Company, 1994), pp. 261.

Shimon Peres, The New Middle East. (Longmead: Element Books Limited, 1993), pp. 224.

R.B. Jain and Heinz Bongartz (eds.), Structural Adjustment, Public Policy and Bureaucracy in Developing Societies. (New Delhi: Har‐Anand Publications, 1994), pp. xvi, 424.

Hendri Supriyatmono, Nasution: Dwifungsi ABRI dan Kontribusi Ke Arah Reformasi Politik (Surakarta: Sebelas Maret University Press, 1994), 190 pp.     

Coalition Politics in India: 2004–2009

Abstract

It is posited here that the coalition imperative of holding the alliances together just to keep in office leads to behavior that is not altogether ethically acceptable. This is not to say that all coalitions are bad by definition; they are not. The issue is: how many partners and what the minimum understanding among them are ideal to run the government? It is suggested that a large and unprincipled coalition on the one hand would debilitate a government, and on the other lead to political corruption and even blackmail. Contrarily, a smaller number of parties with some affinity in ideology and a common purpose would be beneficial for a stable democracy. To glean some insights, the United Progressive Alliance coalitions cobbled together by the Congress Party Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2004, and consequent to the 2009 elections, are studied here.     

The nationalisation of electoral politics: A conceptual reconstruction and review of the literature

This article revisits the theory of the nationalisation of electoral politics from both a conceptual and a methodological perspective. Presenting and evaluating this theory through a critical analysis of the major works, the article focuses on the analytical utility and the theoretical interest of such a re‐examination, and provides a new conceptual and operational definition of this political phenomenon. The concept of nationalisation is discussed in regard to three electoral dimensions: homogeneity of support; uniform swing; and responses to national factors. Combining these three dimensions, the article provides a typology of the different forms of nationalisation, explores the possibilities of its analytical application, and tries to establish the extent to which the operational definition of nationalisation corresponds to the conceptual and theoretical definition.     

How to Win a Lost Election: Malapportionment and Malaysia’s 2013 General Election

Abstract

Allegations of electoral irregularities loomed large prior to and following Malaysia’s 13th general election in May 2013. Yet while these irregularities elicited strong reactions domestically and internationally, they are unlikely to have played a significant role in shaping the election’s outcome. Rather than how the game was played, it was the very rules of the game itself that were responsible for returning the United Malays National Organization and its Barisan Nasional coalition to power for the 13th consecutive time, as Malaysia’s electoral institutions quietly transformed the incumbent coalition’s 4% deficit in the popular vote into a 20% winning margin of parliamentary seats. This is largely the result of substantial variation in the size of electoral districts, which had the effect of delivering parliamentary seats to Barisan Nasional with significantly fewer votes than were required by the opposition to secure its seats. This article has two primary aims. First, it seeks to understand better malapportionment in Malaysia by examining the degree of distortions at multiple institutional levels. It demonstrates these distortions to be exceptionally high from a comparative perspective. Second, it seeks to understand better the factors responsible for the size variation of electoral districts, specifically the extent to which the non-partisan factors stipulated in the constitution can explain the variation. Several tests are conducted using new data on the density of voters in electoral districts. The results strongly indicate a partisan element to malapportionment. This creates an institutionalized bias against the opposition and risks increasing polarization in the Malaysian polity.