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1.
Do individuals believe that an election victory by their favored candidate will improve their personal economic well-being? Previous work has either adopted an approach that is not well suited to determining this relationship, or ignored this question to focus on perceptions of macroeconomic conditions. In this paper we adopt a new approach that allows us to determine the relationship individuals perceive between elections and personal economic welfare, examining the relationship between vote choice, the election outcome, and post-election expectations for personal economic well-being. We find that economic individualism plays an important role in shaping the relationship individuals perceive between election outcomes and their personal economic well-being. Individuals who reject economic individualism do perceive a relationship, with those viewing an election outcome as favorable more optimistic in their expectations for personal economic well-being than those who view the election outcome as unfavorable. Conversely, election outcomes do not influence the expectations of economic individualists. 相似文献
2.
在金融危机影响下,企业常常以经济性裁员来减少企业的人力成本支出,这是企业经营自主权的体现。但这种经济性裁员涉及人数多,稍有不慎就会产生严重的法律后果和社会影响。所以,在劳动合同法规范下,经济性裁员必须符合法定条件,履行法定程序。本文从法律适用的角度出发,在论述金融危机下企业经济性裁员的法律后果与影响的基础上,对我国现行经济性裁员的法律规定及存在的问题进行了具体分析,并对金融危机下完善我国企业经济性裁员制度提出了若干建议。 相似文献
3.
论人民代表大会制度的改革和完善 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
改革和完善人民代表大会制度应从以下方面着手:改革选举制度,扩大直接选举范围,差额选举国家机关正职领导人,实行以竞争为中心的公开公正的选举程序;改革代表制度,人大代表要与企业家身份脱离,政府官员不宜兼任人大代表;调整人大及其常委会的功能,扩大常委会立法权,实行常委会的专职化;改革人代会的议事程序和议事方式,延长会期,由常委会全体会议审议法案;改革人大常委会工作机构的工作方式,为人大代表及常委会组成人员提供更全面有效的服务。 相似文献
4.
泰国2011年大选前的政治格局与他信时期相比并没有太大的改变,因此,完全没有政治经验的英拉的上台也就不会令人感到太意外。但如上届政府一样,英拉上台后面临重重困难。外交方面,英拉政府则表现出色,在短短的时间内构建了包括周边国家、区域大国和国际组织在内的全方位外交体系。 相似文献
5.
Although paid television and radio political advertising is banned in the United Kingdom, parties fielding sufficient candidates are entitled to free air time during election campaigns for a fixed number of party election broadcasts (PEBs). Over the years, parties have experimented with a variety of different PEB formats. But the impact of PEBs on voters is underresearched. This article therefore analyzes the influence of PEB viewing in the 1997 British General Election. Though a majority do not view PEBs, those who do are influenced by them, especially in terms of their evaluations of parties and their leaders: Other things being equal, viewers of a party's PEBs become more favorably disposed to the party and its leader than those who do not see the broadcast. Labour and Conservative PEBs have no impact on vote intentions, however. But viewers of Liberal Democrat broadcasts become more likely to support that party. We speculate that this reflects different background levels of media exposure for the major parties as compared to the third party. 相似文献
6.
Jin-Wook Choi 《Asian Journal of Political Science》2013,21(1):64-81
As information and communications technologies (ICTs) have revolutionised private and public lives in many aspects, to what extent and in what way electronic voting (e-voting) can improve citizens’ electoral participation and deepen democracy has become a critical issue in political science. From the theory of deliberative participatory democracy in conjunction with a rational choice perspective, this article examines the prospect of e-voting in the electoral process in South Korea. Prior experiences in the 2002 presidential election and the 2000 and 2004 general elections in South Korea have shown a meaningful, albeit limited and partial, impact of ICTs on citizens’ election-related information consumption, reshaping of their political stance and beliefs, and voter turnout. This article contends that the premises of e-voting can be attained with a higher degree of probability if the National Election Commission serves as an information gateway, bridges the digital divide, and is ready to provide voters and election officers with necessary and accurate information about voting procedures. 相似文献
7.
When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought. 相似文献
8.
Electoral mobilization and persuasion are often characterized as two-stage processes, where parties activate their core supporters, who then mobilize and persuade larger shares of the electorate. While there is a lot of research on the second stage of this process, the mobilization and persuasion of the wider electorate by party activists, there is little causally identified evidence on whether party elites can encourage campaign activism among party members and sympathizers. To address this question, we conducted a randomized field experiment in cooperation with the Swiss Social Democratic Party in the context of the 2015 cantonal elections in Ticino. The experiment consisted of the randomized administration of telephone calls to members and strong supporters of the party, while their self-reported campaign activism and attitudes towards the campaign were measured in a two-wave online panel survey. Against expectations, we record null effects on various measures of campaign activism, including on the mobilization of relatives, and friends. The results raise questions about omitted variable bias in observational studies of party activism that consistently report large positive effects of party contact on the campaign activism of members and sympathizers. 相似文献
9.
Considerable research argues that voters reward personal vote-seeking behaviors. The expected electoral gain would be the primary driver of MPs' action. Nevertheless, empirical evidence is scarce, and the findings do not always match the theoretical expectations. This article examines the electoral impact of personal vote-seeking behaviors, arguing in favor of integrating party electoral performance into the models. I also propose a new measure of electoral performance based on the evolution of MPs electoral results. Drawing on data from Finland, the findings globally support the theoretical arguments. MPs benefit from personal vote-seeking behaviors, primarily when their party improves its results. The findings have important implications for our knowledge of the personal vote and, more generally, the personalization of politics. 相似文献
10.
To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament. 相似文献