Hidden in plain sight? Irregularities on statutory forms and electoral fraud

The most common method of tabulating election results around the world is manually compiling paper forms at the local level. Recent election disputes in developing democracies, particularly in Africa, have centered on irregularities observed on these forms. However, scholars do not yet have a good understanding of the distribution of these irregularities, nor of their relationship to systematic fraud. In this paper, we theorize a catalog of irregularities that goes beyond simple vote tally editing. We use deep neural networks to identify these irregularities on forms from about 30,000 polling stations in Kenya’s 2013 presidential election. We find that although irregularities manifest differently in government and opposition strongholds, they do not correlate with election outcomes, and they are unaffected by the presence of electoral observers. Taken together, our findings suggest scholars of election integrity should pay greater attention to problems of benign human error and overtaxed bureaucrats.     

注重先进典型教育提高德育的实效性

思想道德教育关系到青年学生自身价值的实现,是树立科学发展观,实现以人为本,建立和谐社会的关键.在德育教育中,恰当的先进典型教育,有利于增强青年学生建设社会主义精神文明,实现和谐社会的信心,有利于在全社会形成崇尚先进、学习先进的良好风气.     

论禁毒情报调研成果的评估及利用

对禁毒情报调查研究的成果进行评估,是对调研获得的情报的内在质量所作的审核、评价,以便更好体现禁毒情报的价值。其评估内容表现在:真实性和有效性;评估方法主要有:分析与综合的方法,归纳与演绎的方法,比较的方法,“人、事、物”联系方法以及提出假设的方法。禁毒情报调研成果的利用主要是:为社会治安综合治理提供依据;为制定打击、预防毒品违法犯罪对策提供依据等七个方面。     

‘Get Brexit Done’: The New Political Divides of England and Wales at the 2019 Election

This article analyses the successful Conservative election campaign of 2019 and how it took advantage of a fractured political and economic landscape. It reviews the unique circumstances around the 2019 election and the ‘surprising death’ of a no-deal Brexit. We then analyse the divergent political communication strategies in the 2017 and 2019 Conservative campaigns showing how the latter was much more coherent and politically unorthodox. Drawing on socioeconomic, demographic and British Election Study data, we argue that Boris Johnson’s messaging was carefully tailored towards the demands of voters in the ‘red wall’ seats. Conservative success was built around an appeal to voters in these economically depressed ‘geographies of discontent’. But while tremendously successful, the coalition this created is potentially fragile. An unconventional, ‘leftish’ Conservative campaign built a new, diverse bloc of voters. It includes a number of left-wingers expecting change alongside traditional Conservative supporters, and will be hard to keep together given the economic turbulence ahead.     

论危害结果与死刑的限制适用

危害结果在很大程度上反映出行为社会危害性的大小,在我国死刑裁量中发挥了重要作用。危害结果在很多情况下是作为酌定量刑情节的形态存在的,其对于死刑的限制适用具有重要意义。充分发挥危害结果情节在限制死刑适用中的作用,应当力戒死刑适用“唯后果论”的倾向;物质性的危害结果不是特别严重的,可以不判处死刑立即执行;危害结果的发生系存在介入因素的场合,应当慎用死刑立即执行。