"客观的超过要素"相关问题研究--与张明楷教授商榷

以危害结果为内容的"客观的超过要素"的犯罪都是过失犯罪,以行为的程度、次数等要素为内容的"客观的超过要素"可以借鉴客观的处罚条件理论,"客观的超过要素"的名称也不合理;"双重结果"的划分导致以危害结果为内容的"客观的超过要素"不可避免地陷入了"双重罪过"的泥潭;提倡者对以危害结果为内容的"客观的超过要素"的罪过形式有误解,使人产生"客观的超过要素"与客观责任相联系的疑问,有必要对相关问题做出说明.     

Precinct resources and voter wait times

The amount of time that voters wait in line while casting their ballots has been a matter of consternation in electorates across the world and a subject of ongoing academic research in the field of election administration. With this as context, we offer here a study of voting lines that combines observed voter arrival times and measures of precinct processes with simulation results. Empirically, we focus on the town of Hanover, New Hampshire, during the 2014 United States General Election. Voters in Hanover initially authenticate themselves to election officials, mark their ballots in secret, and finally insert said ballots into optical scan tabulating machines. These steps are reasonably generic, and thus the way we study Hanover voters is generalizable to the study of voters in democracies across the world. Our simulations show that line voting evolution can be studied after a simple data-collection plan is implemented, and we show how scholars and election officials can evaluate the effects of changing precinct resources, like the numbers of voter authentication stations and voting booths, on the formation and duration of voting lines.     

选举与代际传承的紧张:村干部二代的产生逻辑——基于对湘中Z村的观察

村干部二代并不是世袭父辈的权力,而是在现代民主制度框架内选举产生。肥水不流外人田,村干部首先会选择自己的子女作为村庄权力的继承者;家庭先赋性资本会让其在竞选中赢在起跑线上;打铁还需自身硬,德才兼备才能赢得村民的支持;女大不中留,男性在村庄权力代际传承中有明显的性别优势;得民心者得选票,村干部二代的当选从根本上说是村民选择的结果;朝中有人好做官,村干部二代的产生也离不开乡镇政府的支持与认可。     

To vote or to abstain? An experimental test of rational calculus in first past the post and PR elections

We test the rational choice model of turnout in the lab. We performed laboratory experiments in which participants had to decide whether to vote or not in a number of first past the post and proportional representation elections. We test the predictions of rational choice theory from three different angles:(i) First, we compare aggregate turnout with the Nash equilibrium predictions.(ii) Second, we compare individual decisions with those derived from a rational calculus and count the number of decisions which are consistent with the rational recommendation, and.(iii) Third, we determine, still at the individual level, whether, at the margin, people are more likely to vote as the expected payoff increases.The overwhelming thrust of the evidence is inconsistent with the rational calculus paradigm.     

The effects of election polls in Mexico's 2018 presidential campaign

This research note presents the results of an experimental design to study the effects of poll releases in Mexico's 2018 presidential campaign. Our research design allows us to test the conditions in which polling information can alter voters' reported preferences. The results show that the exposure to polling results makes respondents more likely to identify themselves as undecided. We interpret this change as a sign of voters' willingness to form veridical attitudes. To support this interpretation, we show that the effect is stronger among citizens with the ability and motivation to elaborate on the polling information. The findings contribute to the debate about the consequences of publishing pre-election poll results that show a clear advantage for one of the candidates.     

刑法上业务过失若干问题研究

业务过失是行为人实施基于社会生活的需要而反复继续的专业化而危险的行为时违反注意义务,造成社会危害结果的情形。业务过失的注意义务,并非是基于行为人的身份或者业务知识技能而赋予,而是基于业务行为的危险性特征,并且包含避免危害结果的内容。在立法上,应当就业务过失在刑法中加以明确规定,使之区别于普通过失,在刑罚的设置上,要考虑...     

村落选举、公共性生产与合法性——以陕西Y村为例

转型期中国乡村基层村庄民主选举备受学界关注,学界分别从乡村治理、制度变迁、政治民主等角度考察这一问题。然而这些考察忽略了一个重要维度:乡村公共性主题。笔者认为这一主题才是乡村选举的实质和意涵。通过Y村选举及修路等涉及村落公共事务的个案,笔者考察当前村落选举与村庄公共性生产、村落公意和共识的关系,文章认为当前基层乡村依然延续了差序式的公共性生产模式。这种公共性生产模式与通过选举运作生产公共性的模式之间具有内在张力,正是这种张力导致试图透过西式选举达成村落公意和民众共识的设想在重建当代乡村公共性实践中遇到问题。     

How the Bush and Gore Campaigns Conceptualized and Used the Internet in 2000

Abstract

Political scientists and campaign professionals have been intrigued by the potential of the Internet as a tool for accessing and conveying political information since the mass marketing of the first Web browser in 1993. Optimists have pointed to the possibility for more expansive participation and more substantive, in-depth issue discussions. Pessimists have countered that universal access to the Internet is still years down the road, pointing out there is little reason to believe campaigns will use the Internet either to spice up or to elevate the national political conversation. Such long-term assessments are premature, but we can offer preliminary assessments of how candidates conceptualize and use the Internet. Relying on surveys of online registered voters and interviews with campaign operatives and Webmasters, I examine how the online electorate was perceived and approached by the Bush and Gore campaigns in 2000.1 find that (1) voters were unlikely to seek political information from candidate or party Web sites, (2) voters were skeptical of information presented on these sites, and (3) the campaigns understood this and therefore saw the Internet primarily as a vehicle for internal communication and grassroots activation.     

First-order,second-order or third-rate? A comparison of turnout in European,local and national elections in the Netherlands

Second-order elections are characterized by low turnout. According to the second-order theory this is because people feel there is less at stake. This study tests whether the less at stake argument holds at the macro and micro level using panel survey data obtained in three different Dutch elections. Furthermore, it examines whether campaigns' mobilizing potential differs between first- and second-order elections. We find that at the macro level perceived stakes and low turnout go hand in hand and differ strongly between national, local and European elections. At the micro level the impact of perceived stakes on turnout is limited and contingent on the type of election. Also, campaign exposure affects turnout, but the effect is substantially larger in second-order contests.     

A mixed blessing for the left? Early voting,turnout and election outcomes in Norway

Is there a relationship between turnout and election outcomes? Although this is a classic topic in political science, most studies on multiparty systems have important theoretical and empirical shortcomings. First, we argue that the proper implication of the theoretical argument that underpins research on the turnout-vote nexus is that high levels of turnout should typically benefit both traditional social democratic parties and parties of the radical right relative to other types of parties, including not only those of the traditional right, but also ‘left-libertarian’ parties. Second, few have studied the relationship between turnout and election outcomes with a research design that is appropriate for causal inference. In our empirical study, our identification strategy is to exploit a Norwegian reform of early voting rules as an exogenous source of variation in turnout. Our theoretical expectations are largely borne out in our empirical results.