To vote or to abstain? An experimental test of rational calculus in first past the post and PR elections

We test the rational choice model of turnout in the lab. We performed laboratory experiments in which participants had to decide whether to vote or not in a number of first past the post and proportional representation elections. We test the predictions of rational choice theory from three different angles:(i) First, we compare aggregate turnout with the Nash equilibrium predictions.(ii) Second, we compare individual decisions with those derived from a rational calculus and count the number of decisions which are consistent with the rational recommendation, and.(iii) Third, we determine, still at the individual level, whether, at the margin, people are more likely to vote as the expected payoff increases.The overwhelming thrust of the evidence is inconsistent with the rational calculus paradigm.     

First-order,second-order or third-rate? A comparison of turnout in European,local and national elections in the Netherlands

Second-order elections are characterized by low turnout. According to the second-order theory this is because people feel there is less at stake. This study tests whether the less at stake argument holds at the macro and micro level using panel survey data obtained in three different Dutch elections. Furthermore, it examines whether campaigns' mobilizing potential differs between first- and second-order elections. We find that at the macro level perceived stakes and low turnout go hand in hand and differ strongly between national, local and European elections. At the micro level the impact of perceived stakes on turnout is limited and contingent on the type of election. Also, campaign exposure affects turnout, but the effect is substantially larger in second-order contests.     

A mixed blessing for the left? Early voting,turnout and election outcomes in Norway

Is there a relationship between turnout and election outcomes? Although this is a classic topic in political science, most studies on multiparty systems have important theoretical and empirical shortcomings. First, we argue that the proper implication of the theoretical argument that underpins research on the turnout-vote nexus is that high levels of turnout should typically benefit both traditional social democratic parties and parties of the radical right relative to other types of parties, including not only those of the traditional right, but also ‘left-libertarian’ parties. Second, few have studied the relationship between turnout and election outcomes with a research design that is appropriate for causal inference. In our empirical study, our identification strategy is to exploit a Norwegian reform of early voting rules as an exogenous source of variation in turnout. Our theoretical expectations are largely borne out in our empirical results.     

India 2014: Facebook ‘Like’ as a Predictor of Election Outcomes

Michael Hill and Lian Kwen Fee The Politics of Nation Building and Citizenship in Singapore (London and New York: Routledge, 1995) 285 pp.

Junko Kato, The Problem of Bureaucratic Rationality: Tax Politics In Japan (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).

Joachim Glaubitz, Between Tokyo and Moscow: The History of an Uneasy Relationship, 1972 to the 1990s. (London: Hurst and Company, 1995), pp. XII, 308.

A. Jeyaratnam Wilson, S.J.V. Chelvanayagam and the Crisis of Sri Lankan Tamil Nationalism, 1947–1977 (London: Hurst and Company, 1994).

James Manor (ed.), Nehru to the Nineties : The Changing Office of Prime Minister in India (London : Hurst and Company, 1994), pp. 261.

Shimon Peres, The New Middle East. (Longmead: Element Books Limited, 1993), pp. 224.

R.B. Jain and Heinz Bongartz (eds.), Structural Adjustment, Public Policy and Bureaucracy in Developing Societies. (New Delhi: Har‐Anand Publications, 1994), pp. xvi, 424.

Hendri Supriyatmono, Nasution: Dwifungsi ABRI dan Kontribusi Ke Arah Reformasi Politik (Surakarta: Sebelas Maret University Press, 1994), 190 pp.     

Coalition Politics in India: 2004–2009

Abstract

It is posited here that the coalition imperative of holding the alliances together just to keep in office leads to behavior that is not altogether ethically acceptable. This is not to say that all coalitions are bad by definition; they are not. The issue is: how many partners and what the minimum understanding among them are ideal to run the government? It is suggested that a large and unprincipled coalition on the one hand would debilitate a government, and on the other lead to political corruption and even blackmail. Contrarily, a smaller number of parties with some affinity in ideology and a common purpose would be beneficial for a stable democracy. To glean some insights, the United Progressive Alliance coalitions cobbled together by the Congress Party Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2004, and consequent to the 2009 elections, are studied here.     

How to Win a Lost Election: Malapportionment and Malaysia’s 2013 General Election

Abstract

Allegations of electoral irregularities loomed large prior to and following Malaysia’s 13th general election in May 2013. Yet while these irregularities elicited strong reactions domestically and internationally, they are unlikely to have played a significant role in shaping the election’s outcome. Rather than how the game was played, it was the very rules of the game itself that were responsible for returning the United Malays National Organization and its Barisan Nasional coalition to power for the 13th consecutive time, as Malaysia’s electoral institutions quietly transformed the incumbent coalition’s 4% deficit in the popular vote into a 20% winning margin of parliamentary seats. This is largely the result of substantial variation in the size of electoral districts, which had the effect of delivering parliamentary seats to Barisan Nasional with significantly fewer votes than were required by the opposition to secure its seats. This article has two primary aims. First, it seeks to understand better malapportionment in Malaysia by examining the degree of distortions at multiple institutional levels. It demonstrates these distortions to be exceptionally high from a comparative perspective. Second, it seeks to understand better the factors responsible for the size variation of electoral districts, specifically the extent to which the non-partisan factors stipulated in the constitution can explain the variation. Several tests are conducted using new data on the density of voters in electoral districts. The results strongly indicate a partisan element to malapportionment. This creates an institutionalized bias against the opposition and risks increasing polarization in the Malaysian polity.     

The Ségolène Royal Phenomenon: Political Renewal in France?

This article analyses Ségolène Royal's rise during 2006 to become the first ever female mainstream French presidential candidate in the context of ongoing presidentialising tendencies within the French Fifth Republic. It considers the extent to which Royal's candidacy represented a turning point for the French Left, not only because of her gender, but also because of her challenge to the Left's traditional organisational and ideological norms of presidential electoral politics. Her participatory democratic campaign organisation, Désirs d'Avenir by-passed traditional party authority structures throughout 2006. However, in the face of declining poll ratings, Royal's candidacy reverted to a more orthodox relationship to the PS as 'presidential party'. Ideologically, her novel political language and down-to-earth style combine with a complex blend of egalitarianism and authoritarianism which treads novel ground. Yet the intriguing elements of her political vision have struggled to coalesce into a coherent and credible presidential programme.