论危害结果与死刑的限制适用

危害结果在很大程度上反映出行为社会危害性的大小,在我国死刑裁量中发挥了重要作用。危害结果在很多情况下是作为酌定量刑情节的形态存在的,其对于死刑的限制适用具有重要意义。充分发挥危害结果情节在限制死刑适用中的作用,应当力戒死刑适用"唯后果论"的倾向;物质性的危害结果不是特别严重的,可以不判处死刑立即执行;危害结果的发生系存在介入因素的场合,应当慎用死刑立即执行。     

加强大学生马克思主义信仰教育

在多元经济、政治、文化的影响下,我国当代大学生的信仰逐步呈现多元化的发展趋势,因此,加强大学生马克思主义信仰教育,已成为我国高校当前一项极其重要而迫切的任务。高校教师要从自身出发,做到思想和行为相统一,在教育内容的选择上做到科学和价值相统一,在教育方式的运用上做到原则和灵活相统一,在教育效果的考核上做到理论和实践相统一,从而使更多的大学生逐步树立马克思主义信仰。     

“完善‘一国两制’制度体系,落实‘爱国者治港’根本原则”专题研讨会综述

全国港澳研究会于2021年2月在北京举办"完善‘一国两制’制度体系,落实‘爱国者治港’根本原则"专题研讨会。夏宝龙同志在讲话中表示,习近平总书记关于"爱国者治港"的重要论述,是对香港回归以来"一国两制"实践经验的高度提炼,是对"一国两制"实践规律的深刻揭示,为推动"一国两制"实践行稳致远、保持香港长治久安指明了方向。"爱国者治港"是"一国两制"方针的核心要义,是推进"一国两制"事业的时代呼唤,要坚持"爱国者治港"的客观标准和要求,对相关制度进行完善。与会专家学者表示,"爱国者治港"是在香港特别行政区维护国家主权、安全、发展利益的重要前提。香港现行选举制度还不能为全面落实"爱国者治港"原则提供坚实的制度保障,需要尽快加以完善,修补漏洞。     

Confidence in an election authority and satisfaction with democracy: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of a failed election in Sweden

Contemporary research on electoral integrity has focused on the functioning, evaluation, and legitimacy of electoral processes in emerging democracies. By contrast, this study investigates whether a failed election in a well-established democracy can affect individuals' evaluations of the electoral management body, the Election Authority, and whether those evaluations affect satisfaction with democracy. Using the case of a Swedish regional election in 2010 that had to be rerun due to procedural mistakes in the vote handling, we found that, in the short term, individuals’ confidence in the Election Authority was reduced after it was announced that the election had to be rerun because of the mistakes. Subsequently, this decreased confidence was strongly associated with less satisfaction with democracy at the regional and national level. As good news for the authority, after a successful rerun election, confidence rebounded to the levels prior to the failed election.     

Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions

To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament.     

Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The 1992 debacle all over again?

This article introduces and reviews a set of twelve academic forecasts of the 2015 British general election. Along with the vast majority of others including journalists and betting markets, they failed by a big margin to predict that the Conservatives would emerge with an overall majority of seats. Several suffered from the 1992 scale inaccuracies of the vote-intention opinion polls. Forecasts based on other data sources typically did a bit better, but also fell short. Nonetheless, this was not 1992 all over again. The dramatic collapse of the Liberal Democrats and rise of the SNP, UKIP and Greens were successfully anticipated. Also this collection includes numerous methodological advancements, with several new methods and developments to established approaches.     

Election observer effects: A field experiment in the Russian Duma election of 2011

The literature on elections and election monitoring is divided between those who take a skeptical view, suggesting that monitors are often political rather than objective in their judgments, and those who see monitors as a real force for cleaner, more honest elections. Studies that use field experiments to look for the effect of monitors generally support the optimists, indicating that the mere presence of election observers can have powerful effects. This is surprising given the extent of the resources available to incumbents who wish to conduct electoral fraud. We present the results of an experiment in which 768 observers were randomly assigned to polling stations in 21 cities in Russia in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Unlike most previous studies of election observers, our results suggest that observer effects on turnout and vote for the ruling party are small. The results suggest the need to study more carefully the circumstances that shape the impact of observation missions.     

Political actors,preferences and election rule re-design in Russia and Ukraine

Institutional designers, international organizations and post-Soviet political actors have directed considerable attention to the design and conduct of elections in postcommunist states. This article explores the nature of electoral system re-design by investigating the motives and interactions of legislators, parties and presidents. Following the veto players literature, the analysis focuses on the determinants of policy stability and change. The process of institutional re-design is evaluated in two cases: the successful introduction of the Law on Political Parties in Russia and unsuccessful attempts at major election reform in Ukraine. The article shows that the outcomes of policy reform processes in these 'superpresidential' systems were not solely determined by presidential preferences. Rather, to fully understand election system re-design, it is critical to evaluate the preferences of all relevant veto players.     

The campaign dynamics of economic voting

This paper considers the relationship between election campaigns and the impact of economic evaluations on vote choice. The motivation is the standard expectation that the campaign generally serves to amplify the significance of economic considerations in the voter's calculus—to focus his/her attention on this “fundamental” element of the electoral decision. Drawing on survey data from ten national elections across four countries (Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) and applying both parametric and semi-parametric statistical techniques, the paper finds no support for this proposition. The paper reflects on the significance of this conclusion for work on political learning during election campaigns, the literature on economic voting, and the study of electoral behaviour more generally.