The downstream consequences of long waits: How lines at the precinct depress future turnout

Researchers have increasingly paid attention to the impact that the administrative component of elections has on voter behavior. Existing research has focused almost exclusively on the effect that legal changes--such as voter identification laws--have on turnout. This paper extends our understanding of the electoral process by exploring how one aspect of the precinct experience--standing in line to vote--can shape the turnout behavior of voters in subsequent elections. I demonstrate that for every additional hour a voter waits in line to vote, their probability of voting in the subsequent election drops by 1 percentage point. To arrive at these estimates, I analyze vote history files using a combination of exact matching and placebo tests to test the identification assumptions. I then leverage an unusual institutional arrangement in the City of Boston and longitudinal data from Florida to show that the result also holds at the precinct level. The findings in this paper have important policy implications for administrative changes that may impact line length, such as voter identification requirements and precinct consolidation. They also suggest that racial asymmetries in precinct wait times contribute to the gap in turnout rates between white and non-white voters.     

The conditional effect of personal vote-seeking behaviors on MPs electoral performance: Evidence from an open-list PR system

Considerable research argues that voters reward personal vote-seeking behaviors. The expected electoral gain would be the primary driver of MPs' action. Nevertheless, empirical evidence is scarce, and the findings do not always match the theoretical expectations. This article examines the electoral impact of personal vote-seeking behaviors, arguing in favor of integrating party electoral performance into the models. I also propose a new measure of electoral performance based on the evolution of MPs electoral results. Drawing on data from Finland, the findings globally support the theoretical arguments. MPs benefit from personal vote-seeking behaviors, primarily when their party improves its results. The findings have important implications for our knowledge of the personal vote and, more generally, the personalization of politics.     

注重先进典型教育提高德育的实效性

思想道德教育关系到青年学生自身价值的实现,是树立科学发展观,实现以人为本,建立和谐社会的关键.在德育教育中,恰当的先进典型教育,有利于增强青年学生建设社会主义精神文明,实现和谐社会的信心,有利于在全社会形成崇尚先进、学习先进的良好风气.     

Methods for fusing uncertain results obtained from different models in accident reconstruction

Considering that almost all existing solutions of fusing different reconstructed results require experts’ opinions and the issue of how to fuse probabilistic results and mixed results has not been discussed. Two solutions are proposed. The first is based on the Monte Carlo Method (FMCM), while the second is based on the Sub-Interval Technique (FSIT). The method based on FMCM generates sample points according to the distribution of each uncertain result firstly, and then gives out the cumulative distribution function of the final fused result by statistical analysis. The method based on FSIT gets the result fusion interval set according to lower and upper bounds of all interval results and a given length d of each sub-interval firstly, and then calculate the weighted matrix of the result fusion interval. As a result, the cumulative distribution function of the final fused result can also be given out by statistical analysis. Finally, three real accidents are given to demonstrate the methods of FMCM and FSIT, the results of which show that both work well in practice.     

俄罗斯总统大选及今后4年的内外政策走向

在刚刚结束的俄罗斯大选中,现任第一副总理梅德韦杰夫获胜,普京的支持是梅德韦杰夫获胜的重要原因。新一届政府继续推行普京路线,但是在政治体制上将会出现事实上的调整。在对外关系中将继续以维护国家利益为中心,开展多极化的务实外交;在经济上,新一届政府面临的主要任务是确保经济增长、调整经济结构。     

Hidden in plain sight? Irregularities on statutory forms and electoral fraud

The most common method of tabulating election results around the world is manually compiling paper forms at the local level. Recent election disputes in developing democracies, particularly in Africa, have centered on irregularities observed on these forms. However, scholars do not yet have a good understanding of the distribution of these irregularities, nor of their relationship to systematic fraud. In this paper, we theorize a catalog of irregularities that goes beyond simple vote tally editing. We use deep neural networks to identify these irregularities on forms from about 30,000 polling stations in Kenya’s 2013 presidential election. We find that although irregularities manifest differently in government and opposition strongholds, they do not correlate with election outcomes, and they are unaffected by the presence of electoral observers. Taken together, our findings suggest scholars of election integrity should pay greater attention to problems of benign human error and overtaxed bureaucrats.     

以法治思维推动人民检察院组织法修改

作为人民检察院工作指导总原则的《检察院组织法》逐渐显露出一些结构性缺陷和体系性矛盾,难以适应新形势下保障和规范检察机关履行法律监督职责的需要。建议运用法治思维改革精神,明确检察机关的法律监督属性,对不合时宜的结构和内容进行修改,同时注重吸收和借鉴近年来检察改革实践的成果,有层次、有重点地推动《检察院组织法》修改工作,保障检察权科学运行。     

How voter mobilization from short text messages travels within households and families: Evidence from two nationwide field experiments

Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately 30 percent spilled over to other persons in the household, even parents. The effects are subtle and we cannot with certainty establish that a spillover effect exists. However, we demonstrate, using Bayesian updating, that even an initial skeptic becomes close to convinced that the effect spills over. Our study provides evidence by suggesting that young individuals’ decision to vote affect other household members, including their parents, to do the same. When young voters live without their parents, we find no evidence of spillovers to parents, suggesting that households are more important than families ties for turnout contagion.     

You have to pay to play: Candidate and party responses to the high cost of elections in Japan

What effect does the financial cost of running for office have on candidate entry decisions, and does it differ depending on a candidate's motivations for running? We use a regression discontinuity design and panel data analysis to estimate the causal effect of campaign costs on candidate entry in Japan, where the amount of money required as a deposit for ballot access increased periodically to become one of the highest in the world, and a considerable part of campaign costs. We find that candidates from the major office-seeking parties were likely to be replaced after losing the deposit, and that these parties nominated fewer candidates following increases in the deposit amount. However, we find no such deterrent effect for fringe candidates. This finding calls into question the effectiveness of the deposit at fulfilling its supposed purpose, and sheds light on the differences between the financial and strategic coordination incentives that influence the nomination decisions of parties.