Electoral entry and success of ethnic minority parties in central and eastern Europe: A hierarchical selection model

The paper examines determinants of electoral entry and success of ethnic minority parties in central and eastern Europe. The application of a hierarchical selection model shows that the strategic entry of minority parties depends on their expected electoral success due both to observed and unobserved factors. Drawing on formal models of electoral entry, the electoral success of new (or niche) parties is expected to be influenced by the costs of entry (determined by electoral thresholds) and the potential for electoral support. The latter depends on the reactions of political competitors and electoral demand, measured here as the size of ethnic groups and the saliency of ethnic issues. In line with these expectations, parties only run if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. This finding would have been overlooked by a naïve model of electoral success which does not take self-selection into account.     

Balancing district and party seats: The arithmetic of mixed-member proportional electoral systems

Mixed-member proportional electoral systems (MMP) are widely praised because they combine the direct, personal election of MPs from single-seat constituencies with a proportional seat allocation. However, the size of the proportional tier matters for the question of whether the system's overall proportionality is preserved. Hence, a key challenge for constitution-makers and scholars is finding the right balance between district and proportional seats, so as to maximise district representation and guarantee proportional representation.This paper develops the first theoretical model that helps to locate this sweet spot for district and party seats. The novel solution builds on Taagepera's “logical models” about party sizes. The model is tested on 58 national parliamentary elections under MMP rules.     

Personal attributes and (mis)perceptions of local environmental risk

Individuals' risk perceptions shape their attitudes and behaviors, and to the extent that governments respond to public demands, they also influence public policy priorities. Conversely, risk misperceptions—that is, when risk perceptions do not align with realities—may lead to suboptimal behaviors and inefficient public policy. This study investigates the phenomena of environmental risk misperceptions. Specifically, with an original survey that enables a direct comparison of perceived and actual environmental risks at the local level, it examines the relationships between personal attributes and risk misperceptions. The findings show that individuals exhibit optimism bias in assessing local environmental risk. On average, people rank their communities as experiencing less risk from toxic air pollution than objective measures suggest. Moreover, Whites, males, conservatives, and older people tend to have larger optimism bias and have lower chances of possessing correct risk perceptions than their counterparts, respectively, while respondents who are married, poor, who go to church regularly, and have strong pro-environmental orientation, tend to have smaller optimism bias and have higher chances of possessing correct risk perceptions than their respective counterparts. The systematic misperception of local environmental risk underscores the importance of information provision and risk communication, and the sociopolitical correlates of misperception suggest that targeted and more nuanced strategies are required to correct misperceptions.     

Does the early bird always get the worm? First round advantages and second round victories in Latin America

Runoff systems allow for a reversion of the first-round result: the most voted candidate in the first round may end up losing the election in the second. But do voters take advantage of this opportunity? Or does winning the first round increase the probability of winning the second? We investigate this question with data from presidential elections since 1945, as well as subnational elections in Latin America. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that being the most voted candidate in the first round has a substantial positive effect on the probability of winning the second round in mayoral races – especially in Brazil –, but in presidential and gubernatorial elections the effect is negative, though not statistically significant at conventional levels. The positive effect in municipal races is much stronger when the top-two placed candidates are ideologically close – and thus harder to distinguish for voters – but weakens considerably and becomes insignificant when the election is polarized. We attribute these differences to the disparate informational environment prevailing in local vs. higher-level races.