Economic shocks and democratic consolidation: Historical evidence from party-level electoral volatility in France

The emergence of a stable party system is a central aspect of democratic consolidation. Building a novel historical dataset, we analyze how economic growth affected the party-level electoral volatility during the consolidation of the French democracy over the Third Republic (1870-1940). We document an asymmetric effect in that positive economic shocks produced electoral stability, while negative shocks had not the expected destabilizing effect. Moreover, a positive shock had a disproportionally stabilizing effect during economic prosperity, four times stronger than during an average economic conjuncture. As France experienced strong positive shocks over this period, our results imply that the party system consolidation may have been driven by a few exceptionally high growth episodes. We also find evidence suggesting that positive shocks developed voters’ support for institutionally stable parties.     

竞争时代日本多维度联合防卫力战略构建及其影响

日本新防卫战略把日本的防卫力量从传统的海陆空领域扩展至多维度的太空、网络以及电磁波等新领域,重视各领域之间的彼此融合防卫。作为一个综合性防卫战略,它强调从平时到"有事"各阶段之间、自主防卫与日美同盟及多层次安保合作之间、"前方战场"和"后方体制"之间的综合防卫。为实现"跨领域作战",日本提出了优先项目和强化重点,侧重在太空、网络、电磁波等新领域内获得并强化相关防卫能力。同时日本也加强提升传统领域内的海空能力、导弹防御及防区外打击能力,并对自卫队的体制进行相应调整。新防卫战略与"印太构想"融合,进一步深化了日本立体跨域防卫体系。日本"多维度联合防卫力量"新战略具有深刻的竞争时代背景,为配合美国军事战略调整并强化日美同盟、对竞争时代安全情势的判断与主动应对、积极加入全球军事变革下新领域内的激烈竞争、更好地应对岛屿争端及加强海洋防卫等现实问题,这是日本谋求构建新防卫战略的深刻动因。该日本新防卫战略产生的影响包括:日本的防卫自主或更难实现、进一步改变战后日本的安全战略基点、在新安全领域引发竞争及不利于构建良好的中日建设性安全关系等。对此,中国需进一步增强本国综合性实力,积极推动日本对华安全释疑,扩大中日防卫交流与安全对话,增进两国的安全互信。     

反倾销法与竞争法之冲突与协调

反倾销法与竞争法存在一些天然的联系.然而许多国家的实践表明,对外贸易政策的实施,很有可能与其竞争政策相冲突.随着贸易的自由化、市场全球化和一体化的发展,运用产业政策与贸易政策支持国内的产业发展受到越来越多的限制,反倾销法就是典型的体现.从反倾销法和竞争法的经济理论出发,分析了两者的潜在冲突,并试图指出解决反倾销法与竞争法之冲突的途径.     

论美国潜在竞争理论--兼论构筑我国混合合并控制的理论基准

潜在竞争理论作为对混合合并行为进行规制的基本理论,受到各国学者的广泛重视.从各国的司法实践和法律规定来看,以美国和欧盟的反垄断法为主要理论基础,形成了美国潜在竞争理论与欧盟潜在竞争理论两大理论体系,而目前我国学者们普遍应用的是美国潜在竞争理论,但人们在论及该理论时又经常将两大体系的理论混用.因此,有必要将美国潜在竞争理论进行较详细的介绍和分析,以避免混用现象的发生.同时,也可以为设计我国的混合合并控制理论提供有益的借鉴.     

经济分析如何融入法律过程:欧盟竞争法改革的得失及启示

经济分析是认定垄断行为违法性的主要工具。我国在反垄断法律制度建构过程中,自始十分重视经济分析方法和经济证据的使用,但是,如何将经济分析有机融入规范分析的法律过程,始终是个难题。20世纪90年代以来,欧盟竞争法经历了“基于效果的分析方法”的现代化改革,实现了核心价值目标的转换,构建了较为完备的经济分析规则体系,同时也面临...     

马克思历史哲学的当代意义(上)

随着中国走向市场经济,没有任何问题能比马克思主义的历史命运更能引起人们的关注。本文结合《资本论》三大手稿.以与传统哲学教科书不同的方式,围绕以下十二个问题,展示马克思历史哲学的当代意义:关于市场经济的历史地位;商品经济的两大历史阶段;商品经济的重要历史作用;货币的历史地位;资本的文明面;关于交往方式;关于资本的有限性;关于竞争;关于社会主义所有制;关于重建个体所有制;关于共产主义的历史前提;关于历史唯物主义。我的结论是,马克思是研究市场经济的第一人,他的无穷的思想遗产依然是我们改革开放的指路明灯,马克思在当代依然是不可超越的。     

It’s no longer the economy,stupid! Issue yield at the 2017 German federal election

Abstract

This article demonstrates that the issue-yield concept is able to predict the electoral strategies of mainstream and challenger parties at the 2017 German federal election. While the electorate of mainstream parties favour valence issues, the Greens and the AfD can gain more by concentrating on socio-cultural positional issues. Relying on a unique survey covering 17 positional issues and 10 valence issues as well as an analysis of Twitter accounts, the article shows that contemporary Germany is characterised by a centrifugal competition on the socio-cultural dimension. At the same time, an asymmetric ideological confrontation persists on the socio-economic dimension, because the Left and the SPD still refer to their traditional welfare issues while the bourgeois parties no longer counter this with a contrasting free-market ideology. Thus, the economy is currently not the decisive issue in German politics. Migration, integration, and other socio-cultural issues are rather driving electoral competition.     

How post-imperial democracies die: A comparison of Weimar Germany and post-Soviet Russia

While socioeconomic crisis – like in Germany after World War I and in Russia after the Cold War – is a necessary precondition for democratic erosion resulting in a breakdown of democracy, it is not a sufficient condition. We identify, in the cases of Weimar Germany and post-Soviet Russia, a post-imperial syndrome that includes nationalist irredentism and an ambition to return to the status quo ante of a “great power” as a main reason why democratization faces specific and enormous challenges for former “great powers.” A slide back to authoritarianism in post-imperial democracies takes a high toll. It is facilitated by international political conflicts, including annexation and wars, with new neighbouring states that harbor territories perceived as external national homelands like the Sudetenland or Crimea.     

提高中国出口产业竞争力与生产性服务的发展

生产性服务发展的严重滞后是制约我国出口产业整体竞争力提高的一个重要因素。生产性服务对推动产业技术进步、提高产品的技术和知识含量、增加产品附加价值、形成产品差异性以及推动生产国际化、降低国际贸易的交易费用等方面都发挥着重要作用。大力发展生产性服务 ,是“十五”期间增强我国出口产业国际竞争力的重要措施     

Jurisdictional integration: A framework for measuring and predicting the depth of international regulatory cooperation in competition policy

This article takes a new approach to international regulatory cooperation by developing a concept of the depth of cooperation, jurisdictional integration. A dataset of international competition policy agreements is compiled and ranked against an ordinal index of the depth of de jure cooperation in enforcing competition policies. There has been both a deepening and broadening of de jure cooperation over time. Statistical analysis finds that common membership of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development is a strong predictor of the depth of agreements to cooperate in enforcing competition policies; that we can be confident that the depth of agreements is low when signatories' substantive competition laws are dissimilar; and that the depth of de jure cooperation is a strong predictor of whether an agreement is “intergovernmental” or “transgovernmental.” The article puts forward a new way to map and measure international regulatory cooperation, and a new variable for use in research on its causes and consequences.