Strategic campaigning, closeness, and voter mobilization in U.S. Presidential elections

The scholarly literature on voter mobilization is ambivalent regarding the effects of closeness on turnout. Economic analyses of turnout (i.e. the classic calculus of voting) contend that as elections become closer, voters perceive their participation as more valuable because there is a greater chance that they will cast the deciding vote. Other work argues that voters do not take closeness into account because the probability that their vote uniquely changes the outcome of an election is quite small even in close elections. Still, this second perspective maintains that closeness may increase turnout because elites distribute campaign resources to places where election results could be affected by mobilizing additional supporters. While the latter perspective is theoretically well-developed, empirical support for the notion that elite activity (rather than citizen perceptions) connects closeness and turnout is limited. Using improved measures of closeness and campaign activities, we test for citizen perception and elite mobilization effects on turnout in the context of U.S. Presidential elections. Results show that while closeness has no direct effect on turnout, elites indeed target campaign activities on close states and the asymmetric distribution of resources across states results in higher turnout in battleground states.     

Which democracies prosper? Electoral rules, form of government and economic growth

Electoral rules and form of government have important economic effects, for example on taxation and public spending. However, there are no robust results in the literature when it comes to their effect on economic growth. This paper investigates whether electoral rules and form of government affects economic growth by applying panel data techniques on a very extensive dataset. There is no robust effect of presidentialism or parliamentarism on growth. However, there is very robust evidence for a positive, and quite substantial, effect of Proportional Representation (PR) electoral rules on economic growth. This is partly due to PR systems’ propensity to generate broad-interest policies, like universal education spending, property rights protection and free-trade, rather than special interest economic policies. Also semi-proportional systems seem to enhance growth relative to plural-majoritarian systems.     

Optimists and skeptics: Why do people believe in the value of their single vote?

We investigate the origins of voters' beliefs about the value of their single vote. We construe such beliefs as a function of psychological predispositions and exposure to information about the competitiveness of the electoral race. We test this theoretical model using data from the 2008 Canadian federal election and a new survey question tapping voters' beliefs about whether their vote can make a difference. Our results show that sense of efficacy has a strong effect, efficacious voters being more prone to optimism. Competitiveness of the race also matters, but only among attentive voters.     

Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections: The Salience of Electoral Reforms

Nigeria’s 2015 general elections were followed by positive remarks by trusted local and international observers. The highpoint of the elections was the emergence of the opposition candidate as the winner of the 28 March presidential elections. Clearly, this is unprecedented in the electoral history of Nigeria considering the enormous influence that surrounds the office of the incumbent executive in the country. This article analyses the reforms that enhanced the integrity of the elections. The article illustrates the electoral reforms introduced by the electoral management body and their connection to the improvement of the integrity of the 2015 general elections.     

Signalling issue salience: Explaining niche party support in second-order elections

Why do many mainstream party voters switch to voting for niche parties in second-order elections? I develop a simple framework to explain niche party switching in second-order elections and propose that some voters defect strategically to niche parties as a way to signal the salience of an otherwise overlooked issue to their preferred mainstream party. Using panel data from the United Kingdom and Germany, I find that vote switching in second-order elections is more common among those who perceive a mismatch between the party they feel close to and the party perceived as best able to handle an issue of importance to them, as well as when they believe less is at stake and when they place much importance on an overlooked issue.     

Sequential vote choice: Applying a consideration set model of heterogeneous decision processes

This article analyzes the relative effects of a classic set of long-term and short-term determinants of party choice by treating voters' decision processes as a two-stage heterogeneous process. Departing from a consideration set model of voting behavior (CSM), we use panel data collected in Sweden in 2014 to analyze which voters considered voting for more than one party. To evaluate the CSM approach we estimate the relative effects of long-term and short-term determinants, for different parts of the electorate and at different stages of the decision process.Results confirm that the choice process for the ‘considering kind’ of voters is influenced by another mix of long-term and short-determinants than stable and party identified voters. Findings suggest that continued analyses of multi-stage decision making may bring new insights into electoral behavior. We argue that the core ideas of CSM – the sequential decision-making process and heterogeneity in the impact of long-term and short-term determinants – are generally applicable for analyses of voting behavior.     

中美贸易摩擦对两岸经济关系及台湾经济影响

中美贸易摩擦对两岸经济关系正产生明显冲击,两岸供应链面临局部重整,双方贸易投资下降,并可能影响两岸产业链中长期发展格局。为应对中美贸易摩擦冲击,台商加大全球产能调配力度,台湾相关产业产值大幅上升、对美出口快速增长;但岛内相关产业的实际投资未明显增长,显示台商主要是进行不同出口市场产品的产地调整,而非产能转移;岛内多数产业并未因“转单效应”获益,总体经济受到明显冲击。两岸应深化融合发展、打造两岸共同市场,加快构建两岸主导的创新供应链加以应对。     

论重大事件对目的地旅游业的影响及对策——以济南举办第十一届全运会为例

近年来事件活动给城市旅游业所带来的综合效益已引起学者关注。在分析事件相关概念的基础上把济南第十一届全运会定位在重大事件范畴，并从理论上探讨了重大事件对济南旅游业发展的影响，以及全运会为济南城市旅游业带来的机遇和问题。同时对如何利用全运会的积极效应，促进济南城市旅游业又快又好发展，提出具体建议和措施。