Do large whales have an impact on commercial fishing in the South Pacific Ocean?

Abstract

Although there is evidence that some populations of large whales in the Southern Hemisphere have increased in recent years, differences in feeding behaviour and migration patterns largely precludes direct competition between these and coastal and pelagic fisheries in the South Pacific Ocean. In particular, many of the whales that spend at least part of their year in the South Pacific make feeding migrations in summer to Antarctic waters where some estimates put their food intake at 90% of annual consumption. Others, such as female sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), which do not migrate from tropical/subtropical South Pacific waters, feed at depths greater than that usually occupied by species that are the targets of commercial fisheries, such as the tunas (Thunmisspp.). Thus, even though consumption by whales is high, dietary overlap with commercially fished species is relatively low as much of their feeding is in waters that are not exploited by fisheries. However, there are a number of anecdotal reports that some smaller cetacean species, in particular killer and pilot whales, take fish from longlines set in the region, although more are lost to sharks. However, it should be noted that any assessment of interactions between whales and fisheries is limited by a lack of qualitative and quantitative data. Abundance estimates, particularly for some of the smaller species in the South Pacific region, are only order of magnitude estimates. Furthermore, knowledge of food chains (and their interactions) for many cetaceans in the South Pacific is sketchy making assessment of their impact on local fisheries‐difficult.     

选举诉讼体制比较研究

作为现代民主政治基石的选举,必然要求其过程与结果能真正公平和合法,选举诉讼制度作为选举的一项重要救济制度应运而生。目前对于选举诉讼的具体范围并没有定论,而且各国对选举诉讼管辖的规定也是多种多样。本文通过对以上内容的比较研究,对我国选举诉讼体制的现状进行分析,并提出完善的措施。     

Money Matters: The Financing of the Conservative Party

The article examines the financing of the Conservative Party in the aftermath of the 2001 general election. An examination of the party's income and expenditure shows that pre-2001 patterns remain - the Conservatives are the poorer of the two main parties but continue to be the principal recipient of corporate and in-kind donations. However, the article also demonstrates that income rose sharply in the aftermath of the change of leadership in 2003, suggesting that this change may have stimulated donations. Also, as for other parties, questions of probity continue to arise following larger donations but, like Labour, the Conservatives oppose any caps on political giving.     

Trust in elections and the institutional design of electoral authorities: Evidence from Latin America

It is often assumed that the institutional organization of electoral management bodies (EMB) has an impact on the credibility of elections, but this proposition has been difficult to verify empirically. I examine whether the degree of autonomy from the political process of EMB administrators affects attitudes towards elections among citizens and legislators by analyzing mass and elite surveys across Latin America. I conclude that levels of confidence in the electoral process among political elites are higher in countries with politically autonomous EMBs, but this effect is muted in the analysis of citizen attitudes. This association holds after controlling for individual-level determinants of trust in elections and for other relevant country-level predictors in multilevel statistical models.     

Stumbling block or stepping stone? The influence of direct democracy on individual participation in parliamentary elections

This paper evaluates whether direct democracy supplements or undermines traditional representative democracy. While a first approach assumes that a culture of active direct democracy stimulates citizens’ political interest and ultimately bolsters participation in parliamentary elections, a competing hypothesis proposes a negative relationship between the frequency of ballot measures and electoral participation due to voter fatigue and decreased significance of elections. Our multilevel analysis of the 26 Swiss cantons challenges recent studies conducted for the U.S. states: In the Swiss context, where direct democracy is more important in the political process than the less salient parliamentary elections, greater use of direct democratic procedures is associated with a lower individual probability to participate in elections. Furthermore, by distinguishing between short and long-term effects of direct democracy, we show that the relationship observed is of a long-term nature and can therefore be seen as a result of adaptive learning processes rather than of instantaneous voter fatigue.     

District magnitude and voter turnout a multi-level analysis of self-reported voting in the 32 Dominican Republic districts

Although studies of electoral participation in established democracies are abundant, little attention has been devoted to Latin American democracies and few studies combine individual-level and contextual-level variables. We focus on electoral participation in 32 districts of a Latin American democracy, the Dominican Republic. Our research question is: how to explain the different impact of district magnitude in Latin America? Most importantly, we find that it has a negative effect on electoral participation whereas theories based on established democracies would predict the opposite. We argue that the negative effect is caused by the stronger influence of clientelism in smaller districts, which surfaces at less salient elections. This argument accounts for previously unexplained findings in studies of Latin America.     

人工智能对北京市就业的影响及应对

随着人工智能的快速发展,北京市劳动力市场已经出现就业的结构性变化,使人工智能与北京 市劳动力市场结构的关系由单向影响,被动适应到双向互动,主动适应,最终到动态匹配的理想状态,这将对 促进北京市经济社会的高质量发展具有战略性意义。因此,应系统化构建产业、人才、就业创业、社会保障、 教育培训、区域联动相互协调的政策体系,从产业发展、劳动力市场结构调整、心理疏导、区域联动四条路径 着手,在解决北京市就业结构问题,降低劳动者就业转换成本,提高劳动力就业能力基础上,实现政府科学管 理和劳动力市场平稳过渡的双重目标。除政府的提前应对外,还应充分发挥市场的自组织自适应自调节机制, 厘清政府与市场调节作用的边界。     

Measuring re-election prospects across electoral systems: a general approach applied to Germany

This research note presents a general approach for measuring the electoral safety of individual MPs across electoral systems that is based on predicted re-election probabilities estimated from multilevel logistic regression models. In contrast to existing measures, this method yields estimates on an intuitive and readily comparable probability scale, captures the higher sensitivity of re-election prospects to electoral change in the range of close races, and can accommodate regional differences in context conditions such as volatility. The paper implements the approach for two archetypical electoral systems – first-past-the-post (FPTP) systems and closed-list proportional representation (PR) – and estimates re-election prospects for the FPTP and PR tiers of the German mixed electoral system in all Bundestag elections since 1957. While the empirical data presented here is mainly illustrative, the concluding section highlights various questions that future research can address with the new measure.     

The Political Limitations of Evidence: A Critique of the Electoral Reform Society's It's Good To Talk

The Electoral Reform Society has called for more and better quality information to improve democratic debate in relation to referendums. This article argues that, particularly in relation to the European Union referendum, this would have had a marginal impact, because much of the debate was not reducible to facts and emotional and dispositional factors were of particular significance in the campaign.     

The accountability effect of endorsements: A survey experiment

Do endorsements from incumbent politicians to co-partisans lead to more electoral accountability for the performance of the government? I use a randomized experiment embedded in a national survey conducted before the 2012 Mexican general election to examine the effect of endorsements by the outgoing president Felipe Calderón to the Senate candidates of his Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). Results show that among PAN identifiers, the incumbent vote is more tightly linked to the performance of the president when voters are exposed to the endorsement. I improve on the current standing of the accountability literature by showing that the relationship between an outgoing politician and the candidates of her party matters for electoral sanctioning. My findings imply that politicians’ strategic decisions have an effect on how voters assign responsibility: By nominating candidates without close ties to the endorser in cases of weak government performance, parties can use nominations strategically to diffuse responsibility.