Can hybrid regimes foster constituencies? Ethnic minorities in Georgian elections, 1992–2012

Do ethnic minorities in postcommunist regimes vote in systematic ways? This paper examines ethnic minority voting in Georgian elections from 1992 to 2012, examining the causes for ethnic minorities' high electoral turnout and ruling party support. Although some argue that electoral fraud is the explanatory cause, other interests, such as experience of poverty and party electoral strategy, help explain minority electoral behaviour. This paper uses statistical methods to examine electoral fraud, as well as OLS regression to investigate the role of socio-economic factors such as urban density or poverty on ethnic minority voting behaviour. The paper also draws from in-country field research to investigate the party strategies and programs in ethnic minority areas during the 2008 parliamentary election.     

Institutions and the stabilization of party systems in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe

Most explanations of party system stability focus on the strength of mass-elite linkages. We highlight the role of institutions, focusing on how electoral rules and elected institutions, especially the presidency, impact elites' incentives to coordinate on a stable set of parties or to form new parties, thus affecting electoral volatility. Using Central and Eastern European elections data, we find that directly elected presidents increase volatility and that presidential power magnifies this effect. Absent a directly elected president, high district magnitude is associated with increased volatility, but district magnitude dampens the impact of an elected president on volatility; hence, our findings underscore the interactive impact of institutions on party systems. We also find evidence that bicameralism and concurrence of presidential and parliamentary elections decrease electoral volatility. Our model not only explains persistently high electoral volatility in Eastern Europe, but the extreme stability of Western European party systems.     

A note on electoral competition and turnout in run-off electoral systems: Taking into account both endogeneity and attenuation bias

In this short note, I propose an identification strategy to estimate the causal effect of expected electoral competition on voter turnout in run-off systems taking into account both endogeneity and attenuation bias. I find that electoral competition significantly raises turnout. Not addressing attenuation bias yields estimates that are biased by up to 50%.     

Strategic ballot removal: an unexplored form of electoral manipulation in hybrid regimes

The literatures on electoral manipulation and rejected ballots have yet to engage one another in a compelling manner. This article provides the theoretical foundations for rejected ballots as electoral manipulation by exploring incidents of suspicious rejected ballot rates and practices around the world with a special focus on Zambia. Not only did the rate of rejected ballots in Zambia double between the 2015 and 2016 presidential elections, but a disproportionate increase was observed in president’s home province. Leveraging an original dataset, the article models a largely unnoticed form of electoral manipulation: the strategic rejection of opposition ballots by biased polling officials. Analysis reveals that more rejected ballots were associated with increased vote shares for the ruling party in the president’s home province, indicating probable electoral manipulation. Raising awareness around this difficult to detect, but likely pervasive, form of manipulation should help to improve electoral quality in hybrid regimes.     

Transparency and Political Budget Cycles at municipal level

We analyze the effect of municipal financial transparency on the magnitude of political budget cycles. Our sample covers the Spanish largest municipalities in the period 1999‐2009. While the impact of transparency on the electoral cycle has been studied at the international and regional level, there is no empirical evidence of its effect at the local level. Using the financial transparency index made by Transparency International Spain, we show that municipalities with lower levels of financial transparency present an electoral cycle in total spending, whereas such an electoral impact on total spending does not appear in high transparent municipalities. Furthermore, the magnitude of cycles in capital spending and taxes does not vary among low‐transparency municipalities and high‐transparency municipalities.     

Councillors in Context: The Impact of Place upon Elected Representatives

Abstract

The time investment in council duties and the roles adopted by local councillors in Britain have been studied extensively but rarely has research incorporated information about the type of area represented. This article combines individual-level survey responses from councillors with aggregate-level data that describe characteristics of the wards that elect each councillor. The survey data report each councillor’s social and political characteristics, the average hours per week performing council duties and the range and frequency of activities undertaken. The ward-level data include a measure of relative social deprivation, electoral competitiveness and other features. The analysis shows that councillors representing relatively deprived areas spend more time on council activities than do councillors representing more affluent areas. The activities that councillors pursue, especially whether they are proactive or reactive towards constituents, relate to the ward context. Women and people that are retired from work also invest relatively more time in their work as councillors. These findings establish that assessments of what councillors do and the roles that they might adopt should take account of the types of ward being represented.     

Democratic Electoral Systems around the world, 1946–2011

This research note describes an update to Golder's (2005)Democratic Electoral Systems (DES) dataset. We extend the temporal scope of the original dataset by including all legislative and presidential elections that took place in democratic states from 2001 to 2011. In addition to significantly expanding the size of the DES dataset, we offer a simplified classification scheme for electoral systems. We also provide more detailed information about all democratic elections since 1946, including the dates for each round of elections as well as the rules used in different electoral tiers. A brief temporal and geographic overview of the data is presented.     

Are higher-magnitude electoral districts always better for small parties?

High-magnitude electoral districts are widely believed to lead to greater representation for smaller parties. This article refines the conventional wisdom by taking electoral geography into account. When small political parties have geographically concentrated support bases, then no systematic relationship exists between district magnitude and legislative representation. High-magnitude districts do not advantage small parties whose supporters are geographically concentrated. Evidence in support of this claim comes from India and Israel. The article shows what counterfactual Indian and Israeli legislatures would look like if seats were allocated using electoral districts of varying magnitudes and highlights how parties with geographically concentrated support bases win similar seat totals, irrespective of district magnitude.     

US Presidential Elections: Two Centuries of Constitutional Continuity and Political Change—With an Analysis of the Political Geography of Barack Obama's Re‐election Campaign

The system for electing the President of the United States remains essentially as it was prescribed in the Federal Constitution drafted in 1787. The individual 50 states (plus the District of Columbia) are accorded a number of votes in the (so‐called) Electoral College; each state's Electoral College vote is then attributed to the candidate gaining a plurality (most) of the popular vote in that state; and the candidate with a majority (50% + 1) of these aggregated Electoral College votes is declared the incoming president. What has changed have been the methods of nominating the candidates, chief of which are the political parties from the nineteenth century with their stage‐managed quadrennial conventions and the primary/caucus campaigns from the twentieth century which precede and now determine the formal nomination. President Obama's 2012 re‐election campaign showed both the crucial importance of the much‐maligned Electoral College in winning the presidency and the demographic divisions hidden in the larger American political landscape.     

试论证券市场操纵行为的法律规制

伴随改革开放的深化,证券市场作为媒介融资的必备环节在我国逐步发展起来。其从无到有,逐渐完善的过程亦伴随着我国证券立法的渐趋完善合理。然,市场操纵行为仍是我证券市场的一大危害。这是一种扭曲价格机制,严重损害中小投资者合法权益,破坏证券市场公正性的违法行为。在建立了行政责任制度和刑事责任制度之后,还应建立完善民事赔偿责任制度以有效的遏止操纵市场行为,保护投资者的合法权益。