The Japanese House of Councillors election 1998 in comparative perspective

The Japanese House of Councillors is elected by a two-vote electoral system that is a unique combination of non-unique components. As such, it provides a useful case to examine theories about the impact of electoral systems on the number of parties that will compete nationally and within each constituency, and on the level of proportionality. The election is considered within a comparative context provided by two-vote elections in Germany, New Zealand, Scotland and Wales. It emerges that the level of vote-splitting in Germany, though extensively studied, is relatively low in comparative terms. The extent and impact of malapportionment are also examined.     

Marginal vote seeking in multi member districts

Differences in the number of seats that similar vote shares can deliver make some votes more marginal than others. In multi-member district systems, high-marginal-return votes are very volatile and research has assumed that parties do not go after them. This paper rejects this assumption, introducing a theory of marginal vote seeking across multi-member districts. By leveraging a novel mathematical algorithm and a cross sectional data set, we find evidence that parties seek marginal votes in these systems despite their volatility. In the case of the poverty alleviation programs used here, their use to attempt to secure marginal votes overwhelms the program’s poverty alleviation goals. Estimates suggest that a district’s share of a program’s budget can increase by as much as 8% simply because of this district’s likelihood of delivering marginal votes.     

The personal vote and economic reform

Do electoral rules affect the progress of economic reforms? The students of economic reform have examined the effects of inter-party competition, partly shaped by electoral rules, on economic reform, but have neglected the more direct effects of electoral rules, namely the extent to which they encourage the personal vote. More broadly, studies of the effect of electoral rules on economic policy have relied on the simplistic SMD/PR distinction and have neglected features of electoral institutions that affect the level of intra-party competition. Building on the personal vote literature, we argue that electoral institutions that encourage the personal vote are not conducive to reform progress. We provide the first systematic multivariate cross-country test of the implications of the personal vote literature for economic reform in the context of the post-communist countries from 1990 to 2006. We find that, in line with our theory, countries where electoral rules encourage the personal vote are less likely to reform.     

Beyond personal vote incentives: Dividing the vote in preferential electoral systems

Comparative studies of preferential electoral systems have paid much attention to the incentives for personalized instead of party-centered campaigns, but they have largely ignored how some of these systems allow “allocation errors” and so create incentives for parties to “manage” the vote and intraparty campaigns. We discuss how the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) and single transferable vote (STV) systems create these incentives, and we illustrate the degree to which they affect actual electoral results across seven preferential electoral systems. The analysis reveals statistically significant differences in the vote inequality among incumbent cohorts (members of the same party and district), indicating the strong influence of vote division incentives over candidate-centered electoral environments. The results also have important implications for comparative research on legislative turnover and the incumbency advantage.     

美国文化软战争的实质、运用及其防范

文化软战争是美国攻掠全球地缘战略枢纽的重要手段,本质是一种文化操纵,即通过改变人们的文化观念来实现美国的战略目标。文化软战争的实施一般要经过三个阶段:一是文化渗透,侵蚀目标国家的文化核心,改变民众的文化观念,最终接受美国所设定的文化观念。二是利用蜂拥战术发动街头政治,颠覆现政权。三是扶植亲美政权上台。防范文化软战争的关键是让美国从幕后现身,揭露其文化操纵的真实目标、手法和具体过程。     

颈椎松解手法结合醋热疗法治疗颈椎病疗效观察

目的 观察颈椎松解手法结合醋热疗法治疗颈椎病的临床疗效。方法 将104例颈椎病患者按性别、年龄、病程相匹配的原则分为治疗组和对照组,治疗组以颈椎松解手法结合醋热疗法治疗,对照组采用常规枕带牵引法,10 d为1个疗程,治疗结束后比较两组疗效。结果 治疗组总有效率为100.0%,显著高于对照组（P<0.05 vs.84.6%）。结论 颈椎松解手法结合醋热疗法治疗颈椎病的疗效显著,无不良反应,值得推广应用。     

解读操纵和粉饰现金流量表的陷阱

比起资产负债表、利润表,现金流量表更能全面地反映企业产生现金流量的能力并揭示现金流向所描述的本质。但是,现金流量表也是可以粉饰、操控的,现金流量表的强盗式造假、欺骗性操纵和技巧性包装等是操纵和粉饰的主要表现形式。     

高压氧配合针推治疗重型颅脑外伤后66例

目的:研究高压氧加针灸推拿治疗对重型颅脑外伤恢复的作用。方法:153例重型颅脑损伤后患者分为3组,分别行单纯药物治疗(Ⅰ组)、常规药物 高压氧治疗(Ⅱ组)及常规药物 高压氧 针灸推拿治疗(Ⅲ组)。其中Ⅰ组42例,Ⅱ组45例,Ⅲ组66例。入院时与治疗后进行GCS评分及治疗后GOS评定,比较疗效的变化。结果:Ⅲ组治疗后GCS与治疗前比较及治疗后GOS评定有明显改善(P<0.05)。结论:高压氧配合针灸推拿治疗能显著提高重型颅脑外伤后患者的治疗效果。     

Sequential vote choice: Applying a consideration set model of heterogeneous decision processes

This article analyzes the relative effects of a classic set of long-term and short-term determinants of party choice by treating voters' decision processes as a two-stage heterogeneous process. Departing from a consideration set model of voting behavior (CSM), we use panel data collected in Sweden in 2014 to analyze which voters considered voting for more than one party. To evaluate the CSM approach we estimate the relative effects of long-term and short-term determinants, for different parts of the electorate and at different stages of the decision process.Results confirm that the choice process for the ‘considering kind’ of voters is influenced by another mix of long-term and short-determinants than stable and party identified voters. Findings suggest that continued analyses of multi-stage decision making may bring new insights into electoral behavior. We argue that the core ideas of CSM – the sequential decision-making process and heterogeneity in the impact of long-term and short-term determinants – are generally applicable for analyses of voting behavior.     

Signalling issue salience: Explaining niche party support in second-order elections

Why do many mainstream party voters switch to voting for niche parties in second-order elections? I develop a simple framework to explain niche party switching in second-order elections and propose that some voters defect strategically to niche parties as a way to signal the salience of an otherwise overlooked issue to their preferred mainstream party. Using panel data from the United Kingdom and Germany, I find that vote switching in second-order elections is more common among those who perceive a mismatch between the party they feel close to and the party perceived as best able to handle an issue of importance to them, as well as when they believe less is at stake and when they place much importance on an overlooked issue.