The mechanical and psychological effects of legal thresholds

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the legal threshold on the number of parties and decompose it into a mechanical and a psychological effect. We study the case of Morocco, whose local elections afford a rare opportunity to uncover the causal effect of the legal threshold, using a differences-in-differences approach. Our results show a large effect of the legal threshold on the number of parties. We find a large psychological effect in absolute terms: a 3% increase in the legal threshold leaves almost one effective party out of the council for purely strategic reasons. We conjecture that this large effect is due to the lack of institutionalization and programmaticness of most Moroccan parties.     

L'impact du mode de scrutin sur l'élection des femmes à l'Assemblée fédérale Suisse (1995‐2003)

Cet article analyse l'impact du système électoral sur l'élection des femmes à l'Assemblée fédérale (1995‐2003). La littérature a souvent mis l'accent sur l'importance du système proportionnel en vue de l'amélioration de la représentation des femmes au Parlement en se concentrant souvent uniquement sur le taux de femmes élues. Dans cet article, nous argumentons qu'il est nécessaire d'étudier les trajectoires des candidats et de prendre en compte à la fois les candidats hommes et femmes. Nous montrons que l'effet women‐friendly du système proportionnel au Conseil national semble davantage jouer au niveau de la stratégie de désignation des candidats et des candidates que lors de leur élection, et ce particulièrement pour les partis politiques du centre et de droite.     

Institutional determinants of the largest seat share

The degree of predominance of the largest party in a representative assembly affects government formation and survival. The seat share of the largest party, in turn, is constrained by the interaction of assembly size and electoral district magnitude in the following way. When all S seats in an assembly are allocated in districts of magnitude M, a logical quantitative model proposes that the largest fractional share is s₁ = (MS)^−1/8. As a curve, the model is found to fit with R² = 0.509, considering data from the averages of 46 periods in 37 countries, during which the electoral rules were essentially steady. As a worldwide average, the expression s₁(MS)^1/8 = 1 holds within 1%. Deviations from this average express the impact of various country-specific political and socio-cultural factors that can be investigated once the basic institutional constraints are controlled-for. This means that the degree of largest party predominance may be engineered to hover around a desired average by adjusting assembly size, and district magnitude, while keeping country-specific factors in mind.     

法官独立的具体制度

法官独立是司法独立的应有之义.法官独立的具体制度包括法官选任制度、法官保障制度、法官惩戒制度.我国法官独立的具体制度存在诸多缺失和不健全,应在宪法层面改革审判制度的同时进一步建立健全司法审判具体制度,实现现代法治意义上的法官独立.     

户籍制度的历史回溯与改革前瞻

建国后我国的户籍制度经历了建国初期短暂的自由迁移、195 8年开始的严格限制户口自由迁移特别是限制农民向城市迁移以及改革开放后户籍制度的逐步改革主要是小城镇户籍制度改革三个时期。沿用近半个世纪的城乡分割的二元户籍制度逐步形成了我国特有的二元社会结构。户籍制度改革的重点尚局限于小城镇范围 ,这有其认识上的严重误区。户籍制度改革是政治体制改革的重要内容 ,是尊重和保障人权的重要措施。实行全体公民的居住和迁徙自由 ,是我国户籍制度改革的终极目标。     

Parental Socialization and Rational Party Identification

This article constructs a rational choice model of the intergenerational transmission of party identification. At a given time, identification with a party is the estimate of average future benefits from candidates of that party. Experienced voters constantly update this expectation using political events since the last realignment to predict the future in accordance with Bayes Rule. New voters, however, have no experience of their own. In Bayesian terms, they need prior beliefs. It turns out that under certain specified conditions, these young voters should rationally choose to employ parental experience to help orient themselves to politics. The resulting model predicts several well–known features of political socialization, including the strong correlation between parents' and children's partisanship, the greater partisan independence of young voters, and the tendency of partisan alignments to decay.     

政党制度优越性的比较

对不同类型政党制度进行比较 ,能帮助我们更好地认识中国政党制度的优越性。要进行比较就要有正确的比较方法和衡量标准 ,并满足进行比较的基本条件。在进行比较时要用历史唯物主义和辩证唯物主义的方法进行全面的客观的比较 ;在确定衡量标准时 ,最根本的是要从本国国情出发 ;立足本国实际是进行比较的基本条件。     

Getting a `Get' – the Limits of Law's Authority? N. v. N. (Jurisdiction: Pre-Nuptial Agreement) [1999] 2 F.L.R. 745

This note examines the decision of the Family Division of the High Court in N. v. N. (Jurisdiction: Pre-Nuptial Agreement) in which, in the context of Jewish divorce proceedings, the Court found that it had no jurisdiction to order a husband, by specific performance of a marriage agreement, to go through the procedure to obtain a ‘get’ (a hand-written bill of divorcement) allowing his wife to remarry. First, discussion of the case is contextualised broadly within the debate on the (de)merits of employing legal means in order to redress social wrongs. Secondly, adopting a theoretical perspective upon the difficulties involved in using law to achieve social change, the note goes on to examine more specifically why women from minority cultures may choose to go to the law of the dominant culture in order to obtain relief. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Re-emergence of Asia and the Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economy in Super Long Waves of Capitalist World Systems

ABSTRACT

After the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, we are facing the beginning of the end of the post-war capitalist world system. The 1920s was in the middle of the social, political and economic interregnum, a period of discontinuity in the social order, accompanied by widespread unrest, wars and power vacuums. In this article, that framework of the long and super long waves in the capitalist world systems is used to examine the recent interregnum that marks the re-emergence of Asia. Within the framework of the long and super long waves a new “flying geese” theory is built by incorporating the theory of dynamic industries with Akamatsu’s theory. In the 1980s, Japanese integral production architecture improved quality and productivity in the automobile and electrical machinery industries. In the 1990s, the USA’s open modular production architecture enabled China’s compressed industrialisation, and the China-centric Asian production network replaced the Japan-led Pacific Rim triangular trade regime. In the 2000s, the knowledge-and technology-intensive (KTI) industries have established themselves as the new dynamic industries. The USA is the leading country to develop KTI industries. China is catching up quickly and has leapfrogged Japan in KTI industries. In conclusion, it is argued that these changes mark an approaching second interregnum.     

The five shades of grey: party systems and authoritarian institutions in post-Soviet Central Asian states

ABSTRACT

This article overviews and seeks to explain the processes of party system formation in the post-Soviet Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) by focusing on a crucial party-system property, fragmentation. The analysis reveals that to a much greater extent than in democracies, where party systems are largely shaped by societal factors, the level of party system fragmentation in autocracies is determined by the scope of presidential powers, as entrenched in the formal institutional order and reflected in the national constitution. The level of authoritarianism is largely inconsequential for party system fragmentation, while the role of electoral rules is secondary. Institutionally weak and institutionally strong autocratic presidents have a preference for fragmented party systems, while presidents with an intermediate range of powers seek and obtain low levels of party system fragmentation.