Evaluating partisan gains from Congressional gerrymandering: Using computer simulations to estimate the effect of gerrymandering in the U.S. House

What is the effect of gerrymandering on the partisan outcomes of United States Congressional elections? A major challenge to answering this question is in determining the outcomes that would have resulted in the absence of gerrymandering. Since we only observe Congressional elections where the districts have potentially been gerrymandered, we lack a non-gerrymandered counterfactual that would allow us to isolate its true effect. To overcome this challenge, we conduct computer simulations of the districting process to redraw the boundaries of Congressional districts without partisan intent. By estimating the outcomes of these non-gerrymandered districts, we are able to establish the non-gerrymandered counterfactual against which the actual outcomes can be compared. The analysis reveals that while Republican and Democratic gerrymandering affects the partisan outcomes of Congressional elections in some states, the net effect across the states is modest, creating no more than one new Republican seat in Congress. Therefore, the partisan composition of Congress can mostly be explained by non-partisan districting, suggesting that much of the electoral bias in Congressional elections is caused by factors other than partisan intent in the districting process.     

Barriers to Cross-Systems Collaboration in Child Welfare,Education, and the Courts: Supporting Educational Well-being of Youth in Care Through Systems Change

Cross-systems collaboration between child welfare, education, and the courts benefits when challenges and priorities are identified early. We measured perceptions of educational stability in foster youth with a statewide survey of 1,603 professionals in education, child welfare, and the courts. Results reveal commonalities among perceived challenges to collaboration across systems (e.g., multiple foster care placements; school changes) and differences in perceived importance or significance of a given issue by professional group. Results guided collaborative work in Kansas and may assist other states seeking strategies that inform cross-systems collaboration to improve educational well-being for youth in foster care.     

Electoral entry and success of ethnic minority parties in central and eastern Europe: A hierarchical selection model

The paper examines determinants of electoral entry and success of ethnic minority parties in central and eastern Europe. The application of a hierarchical selection model shows that the strategic entry of minority parties depends on their expected electoral success due both to observed and unobserved factors. Drawing on formal models of electoral entry, the electoral success of new (or niche) parties is expected to be influenced by the costs of entry (determined by electoral thresholds) and the potential for electoral support. The latter depends on the reactions of political competitors and electoral demand, measured here as the size of ethnic groups and the saliency of ethnic issues. In line with these expectations, parties only run if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. This finding would have been overlooked by a naïve model of electoral success which does not take self-selection into account.     

Australia's Progress Undefined: A Critical Review of Measures of Australia's Progress (MAP)

Indicator systems to report on concepts such as sustainability and progress have become a key policy response by governments to concerns over environmental degradation and social and economic instability. When developed by a national bureau, public service imperatives suggest that concepts such as ‘sustainability’ and ‘progress’ should be addressed without offending the ideology of political actors. We offer a case study of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Measures of Australia's Progress (MAP) indicator system. The ABS has chosen to avoid offering a clear definition of what progress means, or a conceptual framework linked to a definition to explain the selection of indicators. ‘Progress’, however, is a socially defined, normative concept. Such concepts cannot be understood without reference to cultural and political processes. By seeking to avoid a perception of cultural or political bias the ABS has limited MAP's capacity to measure progress. We conclude with suggestions on how MAP might be improved.     

反腐倡廉建设的历史逻辑与现实问题

改革开放以来,我们党反腐倡廉建设的理论和实践逐步迈上了科学的发展轨道。但由于当前转型期经济社会的发展特点,宏观制度、文化环境中仍存有一些不利于开展反腐倡廉工作的因素,诱发了很多矛盾与问题。对此,我们应全面总结、吸取改革开放以来反腐倡廉建设的历史经验,坚持正确的反腐倡廉战略方针、原则方法和价值取向。要以规范权力运行为目标,以建立健全科学有效的反腐倡廉制度为核心,以发展党内外民主、提高权力运行透明度、落实反腐倡廉责任为突破,以现代信息技术运用为支撑,以推进惩治和预防腐败体系不断健全和有效运行为重点,与时俱进地推进反腐倡廉建设。     

制度为什么失灵？——从一起典型案例探析我国反腐倡廉制度建设

加强制度建设是深化反腐倡廉建设的必然选择和重要内容。经过几十年的不懈努力,我国有关廉政法律法规制度逐步建立和完善,大大推动了反腐倡廉工作的制度化和科学化水平。但是制度反腐不等于简单的建章立制,开展反腐倡廉制度建设,既要高度重视制度体系本身的建立和完善,更要高度关注制度的执行和落实,特别是要解决好制度执行不力、制度失灵等问题。以发生在干部人事制度改革深入推进大背景下的韩桂芝案为个案,综合运用社会学、法学、管理学等理论框架和研究方法,提出要从制度设计、运行机制、社会认知、制度环境等多方面分析探讨制度失灵的根源,切实推进反腐倡廉制度建设。     

机动车犯罪防控对策——关于机动车强制安装卫星定位系统的思考

随着机动车犯罪案件数量的增多,犯罪手段的智能化、技术化、集团化趋势日益明显,公安机关的传统侦控方式已经不能满足遏制这类犯罪的需要,而追踪机动车的行动轨迹成为侦查此类犯罪的常用程序,故建议在全国机动车上强制安装卫星定位系统,以此来控制机动车犯罪.立法机关应当把“机动车上强制安装卫星定位系统”的建议写入《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》.这一技术手段的应用可能会触及公民的隐私权,但其社会的公益性远远大于个人的隐私权,而且公民的隐私权也能够得到有效的充分保护.     

论基层信访考核指标体系的设定

信访考核指标是社会指标的一种,设定信访考核指标只有遵行一定的要求才能实现指标的功能。就当前基层政府信访考核的指标设定来看,这些指标并没有遵守指标设定的一些基本要求。基层信访考核指标设定的原则主要有指标符合信访价值取向、根据结果的性质设定指标、指标设定与考核目标的一致以及考核指标的范围包括源与流等等。在这些原则的基础上基层信访考核应当重新设定,即围绕着依法行政、立案、办理程序以及三级终结这四个关键指标设定。从而实现信访能够化解矛盾、维护法律秩序稳定等结果。