颠覆型民主化:菲律宾民主转型的力学博弈及依靠力量

通过"二月政变"率先实现颠覆型民主化,是菲律宾政治和社会长期发展的产物.在转型的博弈过程中,菲律宾未能形成体制内改革派集团,体制和反体制势力间的势力平衡急速地倾向于后者,在野党缺乏动员大众并使政府让步的能力.军队的反叛和教会的介入是民主转型最重要的依靠力量,这使得菲律宾颠覆型民主化的实现成为可能.     

The Impact of Fiscal Decentralisation on Education and Other Types of Spending

Scholars have argued about the impact of fiscal decentralisation on public spending for a long time without coming to any firm theoretical and empirical conclusions. In contrast to earlier studies, this paper looks at the impact of fiscal decentralisation across different types of spending. The conventional wisdom of a “race to the bottom” in taxes and spending as a consequence of fiscal decentralization is juxtaposed to the recent literature on expenditure competition, which posits that expansive local competition results in higher spending in fiscally decentralized countries. We argue that the effects of fiscal decentralization should be seen most clearly for those types of policies which are provisioned mainly on the local/regional level. Empirically, we find a robust and positive association between fiscal decentralization and aggregate levels of education spending. However, when looking at public policies provided at the national level (e.g. pension policies), fiscal decentralisation is associated with lower levels of aggregate spending. The argument is tested empirically by means of cross‐sectional regressions as well as a pooled time series analysis of education, pension, social and total public spending in OECD countries from 1980 to 2001.     

蒙自“8．01”特大杀人案犯罪心理痕迹探析

犯罪心理痕迹是犯罪行为的客观反映,是一种客观存在的能被认识的特殊形态。从侵害对象、作案工具、现场的特殊环境等方面,特别是被害人的损伤分布、损伤特征来分析蒙自"8.01"特大杀人案的犯罪心理痕迹,以刻画作案人心理、生理身份及其社会身份特征,从而划定犯罪嫌疑人范围并进而锁定犯罪嫌疑人。     

批评与反思：师生冲突的社会学分析

社会学的分析无疑为师生冲突研究提供了重要的认识视角。但既有的研究,却存在着明显的不足：师生冲突界定理应是“有限定的”而非“宽泛的”,师生差异只是构成师生冲突的一个必要条件,并不必然导致师生冲突;师生冲突的产生尚需对合法性的消解这一充分条件的支撑;师生冲突功能的定位必须是具体的而非抽象的。     

The identification of credit card encoders by hierarchical cluster analysis of the jitters of magnetic stripes

The relative bit density variation graphs of 207 specimen credit cards processed by 12 encoding machines were examined first visually, and then classified by means of hierarchical cluster analysis. Twenty-nine credit cards being treated as 'questioned' samples were tested by way of cluster analysis against 'controls' derived from known encoders. It was found that hierarchical cluster analysis provided a high accuracy of identification with all 29 'questioned' samples classified correctly. On the other hand, although visual comparison of jitter graphs was less discriminating, it was nevertheless capable of giving a reasonably accurate result.     

新旧工会预算制度对比分析研究

随着国家预算管理制度的日益完善和新形势下工会工作发展需要,旧版《工会预算管理办法》已经无法适应当下工会财务预算管理工作的需求,修订工会预算制度迫在眉睫。旧版预算制度存在预算管理职权不明晰、预算期限过短、未实施全面预算、未开展预算绩效管理、收支范围过于笼统、部分预算调整范畴可操作性差等问题。通过对比新旧《工会预算管理办法》在预算管理职权、收支范围、编制与审批、执行与调整等方面的内容,分析两者之间存在的差异,将有助于各级工会组织深入了解新制度的优势,缩短工会预算政策时滞。     

老挝万象市西勐娘娘庙文化特征探析

老挝有着悠久的历史和灿烂的文化。西勐娘娘庙是老挝万象市的一座古庙。而融汇在西勐娘娘庙里的各种信仰的表现,就是老挝文化的一个缩影。透过老挝万象市西勐娘娘庙所蕴含的文化特征,可以看到老挝文化的特点,从而加深对老挝的了解,促进中老两国的文化交流。     

我国商业银行资产业务绩效影响的实证研究

通过对我国上市商业银行资产业务创新与经营绩效的实证研究,发现个人信贷创新业务与商业银行的经营绩效是正相关的,而公司信贷业务以及证券投资业务与商业银行的经营绩效是负相关的。根据研究结果,提出目前我国商业银行应大力发展具有特色的个人信贷产品,注重客户需求、拓宽产品的销售渠道、做好产品的售后服务,走个性化发展道路;同时,要注意风险的防控。     

国际私法上的“政府利益分析说”探微

柯里教授的＂政府利益分析说＂诞生于上世纪美国冲突法＂革命＂时期,并一举成为美国现代法律选择方法论中重要的学说之一。虽然＂政府利益分析＂理论存在概念难以确定、保护观念过于狭隘、不确定性和理论根基不牢固等缺陷,但它提出对法律的内容和＂政府利益＂进行分析,并将此作为法律选择的基础,突破了传统的冲突规范选法理论,给国际私法理论研究带来了一个全新的视角,影响了美国现代冲突法理论和美国法院的司法实践。＂政府利益分析说＂所提出的分析法律实体内容,以及＂利益分析＂方法符合未来国际私法的发展趋势。