伊拉克外交政策中的认同因素探析

认同是国家利益的来源,从两个途径制约着国家的外交政策。以阿拉伯认同对伊拉克外交政策塑造为主线,伊拉克外交可以分为前萨达姆时期、萨达姆时期与后萨达姆时期三个阶段,在此三个阶段中,库尔德民族认同、伊斯兰宗教认同、逊尼派和什叶派的宗派认同对外交政策的影响力也同时存在。伊拉克国家认同缺失正是其外交政策导向多变的原因,重新构建强大的国家认同,在国家认同指导下展开自主的外交交往,是伊拉克消除内乱、提高国际信用度的可取出路。     

Escaping the merchant/missionary dilemma: an imperial policy for the Asia-Pacific

The Asia policy of the Bush administration follows from two principles: its preference for ‘hub-and-spoke relationships’ led from Washington, and the restored priority of security issues over the mixture of trade interests and human rights that was the hallmark of the Clinton presidency. The initial focus of the administration on the restoration of political and strategic ties with old allies such as Japan, and on strategic competition, has been mitigated by another realistic approach: the need to seek new allies and partnerships. This policy was already evident towards India before September 11, 2001, but has been magnified with the onset of a coalition against terrorism, and almost as importantly, against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The resumption of strategic and military ties with China, the priority of anti-terrorist cooperation over human rights issues with Southeast Asia, the increased support for India that is of more strategic value than America's tactical involvement with Pakistan, are developments that overshadow the US relationship with traditional allies such as Japan or the European Union. The major weakness of the Bush Asia policy, however, is its relative neglect of major economic and social issues in the region. Although support for some weakened ASEAN economies has increased, there is neither a more intense coordination of economic policies with Japan, in spite of initially declared intentions, nor a major economic and social strategy for Southeast and South Asia that would support the fight against terrorism.     

China's reform,internal trade and marketing

Abstract

This article analyses Macau's casinos as an example for accumulation by dispossession, in which they serve to transfer wealth from Mainland China to Macau and the casinos' foreign investors. They also represent a model for economic development and this model has migrated to Singapore, where it also operates as a form of accumulation by dispossession. By requiring citizens to pay an entrance fee, Singapore's casinos explicitly appropriate other people's money. The efficacy for the use of casinos as economic development is interrogated here because Macau's casino experience has emerged as a model for economic development in Asia beyond simply Singapore.     

Innovation and growth in traditional agriculture of the lower Volta,Ghana

This article addresses the important question of whether foreign direct investment enhances economic growth and labour productivity in Mexico, both from a theoretical and empirical perspective. After briefly reviewing the Mexican experience with net FDI inflows during the 1990s, the article presents a simple endogenous growth model which explicitly incorporates any positive (negative) externalities generated by additions to the foreign capital stock. Using cointegration analysis, the article estimates a dynamic labour productivity function for the 1960-95 period that includes the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and foreign capital (as opposed to the flows) and the economically active population (EAP) (rather than the rate of population growth). The error correction model (ECM) estimates suggest that increases in both private ad (lagged) foreign investment spending, as well as the rate of growth in exports, have a positive and economically significant effect on the rate of labour productivity growth. In addition, the results show that increases in the EAP have a negative and statistically significant effect on the rate of labour productivity growth, while changes in the government consumption variable have a negative but marginally significant impact. The error correction terms of the estimated models are negative and statistically significant, thus suggesting that deviations of actual labour productivity growth from its long-run value are corrected in subsequent periods. Finally the article generates historical simulations from the estimated ECM's and offers some policy recommendations to enhance the positive externalities associated with FDI inflows.     

Making sense of EU comprehensive security towards conceptual and analytical clarity

Abstract

European leaders frequently vaunt the European Union's distinctiveness in adopting and pursuing a comprehensive approach to security. The EU's profile as an international actor is designed to span across all dimensions of security. As a result, its security policy portfolio involves a large number of institutional actors and policies that need to be coordinated. The ambition of the EU to provide security in a comprehensive manner raises challenges at the politico–strategic level, at the level of operational and policy planning and in day-to-day implementation. So far, the field is lacking an inclusive analytical framework for the analysis of providing security through a distinctively comprehensive civil–military, economic and political organisation. This article seeks to close this gap by providing suggestions for how the wide range of issues related to comprehensive security could be structured, and by framing the matter theoretically and with reference to existing conceptual work and empirical research.     

Reinterpreting India's Rise through the Middle Power Prism

Abstract

India's spectacular rise in recent years has been the source of hyperbolic theorising and speculation on its major power status. Middle power theory offers a set of dynamic analytical parameters which allow for re-evaluating India's global influence and identifying both strengths and weaknesses of its power projection and resources. Placing emphasis on themes of Third World leadership, good international citizenship, multilateral activism, bridge-building diplomacy, and coalition-building with like-minded states, the middle power concept can encapsulate key aspects of India's contemporary agency and account for structural dynamics which constitute a reformist world-view through the reconfiguration of the Indian state within the existing world order. Overall, middlepowermanship delineates fundamental continuities in India's foreign policy tradition, epitomises India's existing position in the neoliberal world order, while providing a good indication of the directions India will take on the global stage in the short and medium-term.     

The profitability life-cycle of direct investment: an international panel study

In this paper we test competing hypotheses about the shape of the time-profile of foreign direct investment profitability on a panel of countries. Using partial linearization method we derive the time-profile of the cumulative profitability for the stock of direct investment from aggregate macroeconomic data. By testing the non-linearity hypothesis of the cumulative profitability life-cycle of direct investment we find a cubic curve.

“脱钩论”背景下的中美金融断裂——以《外国公司问责法案》为切入

《外国公司问责法案》经美国总统特朗普于2020年12月18日签署而正式生效。该法案直指在美上市的中资企业,将两国证券监管合作的矛盾和分歧上升到金融脱钩,使得在美上市的中资企业面临下市和被迫退出美国资本市场的风险。《外国公司问责法案》是近年来中美两国贸易摩擦向金融领域的延伸,也是美方提出的“脱钩论”在贸易和投资领域之外的纵向发展。中美贸易冲突不仅没有随着《中美经贸协定》(第一阶段)的签署而得到缓和,反而在新冠疫情之后继续加剧,并且向金融、科技和教育等领域蔓延,中美两国“脱钩论”甚嚣尘上。美国加紧在金融领域通过法律战的方式推进中美“脱钩”,对中资企业在美上市融资构成现实威胁。中国应该通过法律的方式,在技术层面应对中美监管合作,化解和弱化双方的监管合作矛盾。     

试论中日关系的新向度——以前首相福田康夫对中外交遗产为中心

近年来,从小泉、安倍、再到福田,日本政府都非常重视构成两国关系之潜流的精神和价值理念领域。特别是前首相福田转变了小泉和安倍的"价值本位"外交方向,并从"回归古典"着手,力图通过重构中日两国的精神、价值大厦,使中日关系不仅仅是一种利益、利害关系的存在,而是建立在双方共同理解、追求并能够互相接受的价值阈值的基础之上。这样,中日关系才可能从根本上克服其脆弱性的一面,从而走得更远。而中日两国在第四个政治文件中就此所达成的共识,即为实现这一目标的"新向度"。无疑这是前首相福田对中外交的重要遗产。     

Single-party government,Prime Minister psychology,and the diversionary use of force: theory and evidence from the British case

ABSTRACT

This paper develops expectations about the likelihood of diversionary conflict initiation by parliamentary democracies with single-party majoritarian (SPM) governments. While most of the literature on diversion and governmental arrangement claims that SPMs have little incentive and/or limited capacity to execute diversionary gambits, we contend that the structural and environmental impetuses for diversion in such states are in fact largely indeterminate. We posit that the psychological attributes of prime ministers under SPM – in particular, their level of distrust – is the most important predictor of how they view structural and environmental constraints, and thus of whether they will militarily divert from poor economic conditions. Distrustful prime ministers are predisposed to the use of force, will dwell on the costs of economic problems, and fear that co-partisan MPs (especially in the cabinet) have designs on their office. Thus, despite having a legislative majority, these leaders will choose diversionary conflict over economic policy fixes. We conduct a partial test of this hypothesis in the British case from 1945 to 2007, and our analyses provide robust support.