Leveraging trade opportunities with non-traditional partners: the Malaysia–GCC perspective

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of economic factors on bilateral trade flows between Malaysia and the GCC through estimations of panel data using a gravity model. In particular, the paper compares the determinants of bilateral trade and trade potentials between Malaysia and two regions, the non-traditional Gulf alliance and the traditional ASEAN counterpart, to provide insights for leveraging opportunities through trade with the former. The gravity estimates imply the importance of size effects, similarities in GDP and differences in factor endowments as drivers of trade flows between Malaysia and the GCC, underlying the fact that inter-industry trade dominates these flows. The opposite holds in the case for the Malaysia–ASEAN trade. Though export potentials for industrial products per se appear exhausted in trade with both regions, the Gulf region provides opportunities for Malaysia to export quantity-based final (end-use) products and to diversify its exporting strategy away from quality-based parts and components.     

东盟-海合会经贸合作关系：现状、基础及特点

东盟与海合会之间从早期的零散经济接触发展到深入的以＂粮食换石油＂为核心内容框架、多类商品贸易为基础的经贸合作领域;在此过程之中,东盟和海合会内部分别建立了自由贸易区和共同市场,并且建立东盟-海合会自由贸易区开始成为双方的共识,新加坡-海合会自由贸易区的建立以及随之而来马来西亚的诉求可以视作渐进式推进东盟与海合会关系发展的具体步骤。不仅如此,东盟与海合会之间的制度建设也取得重大进展,双方部长级会议已经成型,互派大使也将实现。所有这些对于进一步保障东盟和海合会的安全利益有着切实的积极意义。东盟-海合会自由贸易区未来的建立将会成为全球诸多自由贸易区之间相互连接的重要一环。     

主权财富基金与海合会金融合作

海合会作为区域一体化组织,一方面推进区域货币和金融一体化,另一方面又是主权财富基金的发源地和分布最密集的区域。海合会成员国主权财富基金在区域内的投资呈现出促进区域金融合作的潜能,它不仅投资广泛,而且出现了合资主权财富基金。但是,这种促进作用也面临诸多挑战,比如产业结构趋同导致投资品种单一、区域大国的影响,以及政治发展的障碍等。     

The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

ABSTRACT

The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.     

中国与海湾合作委员会国家经济关系探析

与海合会国家的经济关系在中国与中东国家经济关系中占有重要地位。中国经济的快速发展增加了对能源的需求,而海合会国家经济以能源为支柱产业的特点决定了其经济发展需要稳定的能源市场。能源合作成为双方经济合作的核心,并通过双边贸易、投资和工程承包得以体现。能源关系的发展推动了贸易、投资和工程承包合作的发展,使双方经济合作规模不断扩大。保持和发展中国与海合会国家双边经济关系,促进石油美元的顺利回流,在增加从海合会进口石油的同时保持国际收支的基本平衡以及保持稳定的石油进口,有利于促进中国经济的良性运行。中国与海合会国家经济关系发展前景广阔。     

Testing EU Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Since 2011, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been confronted with increasing challenges stemming from the Arab uprisings. Internally, they have had to face popular mobilisation and discontent, triggering a mixed reaction, including economic handouts, patronage, limited political and economic reforms as well as military intervention and repression. Externally, they have actively intervened in support of the protest movements in Syria and Libya and enthusiastically facilitated President Saleh's departure from Yemen. At first sight these responses may seem schizophrenic. Upon closer inspection, however, managing instability by shoring up friendly regimes on the inside and expanding the GCC's influence outside represent two sides of the same coin.