Symposium on “The nationalization of electoral politics: Frontiers of research”

This editorial introduces the theme of the symposium which addresses the most recent advances in the field of the nationalization of electoral politics. After a decade of an increasing number of contribution in this field, the symposium takes stock of the diversity of applications of nationalization studies, the progress in data collection, and its innovative methods in designs including it as both a dependent and independent variable and analyzing it both for legislative and presidential elections. The editorial reviews the growth and diversification of the literature over time and illustrates in what directions it has evolved mapping out an increasingly rich and complex theory. It links the articles of the symposium to this evolution of the literature and discusses their innovative character.     

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters’ likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters’ party ambivalence.     

How Measurement Error in Content Analysis and Self-Reported Media Use Leads to Minimal Media Effect Findings in Linkage Analyses: A Simulation Study

In the debate on minimal media effects and their causes, methodological concerns about measurement are rarely discussed. We argue that even in state-of-the-art media-effects studies that combine measures of media messages and media use (i.e., linkage analyses), measurement error in both the media content analysis and the media use self-reports will typically lead to severely downward-biased effect estimates. We demonstrate this phenomenon using a large Monte Carlo simulation with varying parameters of the content analysis and the survey study. Results show that measurement error in the content analysis and media use variables does indeed lead to smaller effect estimates, especially when the media messages of interest are relatively rare. We discuss these findings as well as possible remedies and implications for future research.     

Does it matter if those who matter don't mind? Effects of gang versus delinquent peer group membership on labeling processes

Despite renewed interests in the labeling perspective and the impact of official intervention on individuals’ future outcomes, scant attention has been given to potential conditioning factors for theorized labeling processes. We argue that, when viewed through a symbolic interactionist lens, variations in the nature of primary social groups, through which individuals filter official labels like arrest, may generate patterns for subsequent self-concept and delinquency that are contrary to what labeling theory indicates. To test our rationale, we offer a moderated mediation model in which gang membership is expected to differentially impact the effect of arrest on future delinquency through an intermediary mechanism: self-esteem. We test a gang–nongang dichotomy and then probe further to test whether hypothesized effects are gang specific or occur similarly for nongang youths with highly delinquent peer groups. Analyzed using Rochester Youth Development Study (RYDS) data (N = 961), comparisons between gang members and nonaffiliated youths with similarly highly delinquent peer groups revealed no significant differences in conditional indirect effects of arrest on self-esteem and future delinquency; the two groups were similarly insulated from any negative impact of arrest on self-esteem. For nongang youths with fewer delinquent peers, however, arrest significantly reduced later self-esteem, which in turn increased their future delinquency.     

Territorial reforms in Europe: effects on administrative performance and democratic participation

Territorial reform is the most radical and contested reorganisation of local government. A sound evaluation of the outcome of such reforms is hence an important step to ensure the legitimation of any decision on the subject. However, in our view the discourse on the subject appears to be one sided, focusing primarily on overall fiscal effects scrutinised by economists. The contribution of this paper is hence threefold: Firstly, we provide an overview off territorial reforms in Europe, with a special focus on Eastern Germany as a promising case for cross-country comparisons. Secondly, we provide an overview of the analytical classifications of these reforms and context factors to be considered in their evaluation. And thirdly, we analyse the literature on qualitative performance effects of these reforms. The results show that territorial reforms have a significant positive impact on functional performance, while the effects on participation and integration are indeed ambivalent. In doing so, we provide substantial arguments for a broader, more inclusive discussion on the success of territorial reforms.     

论“附保护第三人作用的契约”

自德国产生“附保护第三人作用的契约”以来,其在德国的判例与学说中不断发展、繁荣。我国现也有不少学者在对其加以研究。其中最困难之处在于如何解释“附保护第三人作用的契约”与“债权相对性”之矛盾。笔者从契约效力根源的角度提出“系统契约论”,解释了“附保护第三人作用的契约”之理论根基,认为我国应引进此制度,并将其继续应用到“附保护第三人作用的契约”的构成要件、法律效果、与侵权法之边界等问题,也附带地以“系统契约论”解释了契约法上之其他问题。     

To Give or Not to Give: Modeling Individuals' Contribution Decisions

Employing data from a recent national survey on campaign finance, we examine the contribution behavior of individual citizens in the 2000 election. By disaggregating types of contributions, our model enables us to observe potential heterogeneity in the determinants of giving money to parties and candidates. We find that for both types of contributions, the effects of informational resources and solicitation on the decision to contribute outweigh those of financial resources. In addition, we propose both a theoretical and an empirical distinction between the selection effects of solicitation and the stimulus effects of solicitation. By distinguishing between these dual dimensions of solicitation, our analysis provides new insight into the causal linkages between income, solicitation, and contributions. We find that while solicitation increases the likelihood of contributing through selective targeting or rational prospecting, it also does so through a stimulus mechanism.     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

行政行为对民事审判的拘束效力研究

在民事诉讼中,民事争议与行政争议交叉处理问题实质上是行政行为对民事审判的拘束效力问题。通过分析其成因及借鉴域外之经验,可以找到解决这一问题的思路：首先要判断该行政行为是否构成＂先决问题＂,即行政行为是否具有先决性,是否是尚未发生形式确定力的非无效行政行为。在构成＂先决问题＂的前提下,以行政行为对私法关系的作用效果为依据确定民事审判权的审查限度,即对确认性行政行为、形成性行政行为、裁决性行政行为分别适用民事先行、先行后民、行政附带的司法审查机制。