How do established voters react to new parties? The case of Italy, 1985–2008

The Italian party system largely collapsed in the early 1990s, providing us with a natural experimental situation in which voters were confronted with new parties – indeed, with an entirely new party system. How did they react? This paper develops a number of expectations on the basis of existing theory and tests these expectations using a dataset consisting of election studies conducted in Italy between 1985 and 2008. We find that a new party system causes confusion as to where parties stand in left-right terms, making it difficult for voters to make their choices on the basis of ideological cues. The confusion is greatest among older voters – those already set in their habits of voting, but only the very oldest cohorts (containing voters over 60 years old) are significantly debilitated.     

Racial composition,sentencing reforms,and rates of incarceration, 1970–1980

Association with delinquent peer groups is one of the most salient predictors of delinquent behavior. Despite the widespread documentation of these effects, little is known about whether the delinquent peer effect is conditioned by individual‐level characteristics. Using data from a multi‐wave survey of Mexican‐American adolescents, this study explored the interactive effect of susceptibility to peer influence and differential association with delinquent peers on delinquent outcomes. Results suggested that the delinquent peer effect on self‐reported delinquency is amplified when an adolescent is highly susceptible to peer influence. Analyses also indicated that this moderating effect varies according to offense seriousness. Specifically, the conditioning effect is most important when considering acts of serious delinquency.     

论全力推动农机专业合作社发展的综合效应和重要意义——以农业大省河南省为例

该文认为发展农机专业合作社,有利于加强农民合作、推进土地流转、引导农业投资、促进农民增收以及强化基础设施建设等,对完善统分结合双层经营体制、开展适度规模经营、促进合作经济组织健康成长、保障国家粮食安全以及加快转变农业发展方式等方面具有重大意义。为此,该文建议,全力推动农机专业合作社的发展。     

欧亚经济共同体经济一体化及其效应分析

欧亚经济共同体是以俄罗斯为主导的独联体框架内最重要的经济一体化组织。自2000年诞生以来,该组织在建立关税同盟方面取得了重大实质性进展,建立统一运输空间、统一能源市场和统一社会经济空间的工作稳步推进,金融和货币领域合作有所加强,经济一体化的静态效应、动态效应,以及非传统经济效应和外溢效应开始逐步显现。但由于成员国经济发展水平差距较大,多数成员国的经济规模很小,且共同体内实行的是不同速度的一体化进程,共同体的一体化效应因而又具有一定的局限性。随着欧亚经济共同体内俄白哈关税同盟的正式启动,欧亚经济共同体的一体化效应将明显改观。     

Why are highly informed citizens sceptical of referenda?

Past work on attitudes toward the use of referenda finds that the most politically informed citizens are more sceptical of its use than their less informed counterparts. An intriguing tension presents itself in that those citizens who may be best equipped for referendum voting, the highly informed and politically sophisticated, are the least likely to support the use of this tool of direct democracy. Using data from Canadian Election Studies, we consider three explanations for relative referenda scepticism among political sophisticates. Our analyses provide evidence to support a confidence in government explanation and a concern for minority rights explanation, but not an incompetent public explanation – a curious finding considering the centrality of citizen competence in the theoretical literature on referenda.     

我国省域装备制造业的空间计量经济分析

基于2005-2007年中国省域装备制造业的面板数据,运用空间计量经济学方法,对中国省域装备制造业相互作用机理进行了分析。结果发现:我国省域装备制造业在空间上相互依赖,装备制造业工业增加值不仅受当地装备制造业发展状况的影响,同时也受相邻省域装备制造业发展状况的影响,技术创新和外贸出口对我国装备制造业的工业增加值的增长有显著的促进作用。     

假日旅游效应分析

假日旅游具有拉动国内消费、提高旅游业总体管理水平、带动相关行业发展等正面效应，同时也存在着破坏自然资源、旅游资源等负面效应。因此，旅游管理部门应遵循自然规律，控制环境容量；利用市场机制，调节客流量，从而把假日旅游变成一种长效机制，推动国民经济的发展。     

Vota por tu Futuro: Partisan Mobilization of Latino Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election

Over the past two presidential elections, the major parties have been making a push at appealing to Latinos, airing over 3000 political advertisements in Spanish in the 2000 presidential election. In this paper, we ask whether the political ads used in the 2000 election had any effect on Latino turnout. We argue that the effectiveness of ads on the likelihood of turnout depends on how targeted the ad is to Latinos and the individual’s process of acculturation. We test our hypotheses using data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group, merged with data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey. We find that the effectiveness of the ads on the likelihood of turnout was mediated by the individual’s dominant language, which is taken as a proxy for the process of acculturation.

Interoperator test for anatomical annotation of earprints

As part of the Forensic Ear Identification (FearID) research project, which aims to obtain estimators for the strength of evidence of earmarks found on crime scenes, a large database of earprints (over 1200 donors) has been collected. Starting from a knowledge-based approach where experts add anatomical annotations of minutiae and landmarks present in prints, comparison of pairs of prints is done using the method of Vector Template Matching (VTM). As the annotation process is subjective, a validation experiment was performed to study its stability. Comparing prints on the basis of VTM, it appears that there are interoperator effects, individual operators yielding significantly more consistent results when annotating prints than different operators. The operators being well trained and educated, the observed variation on both clicking frequency and choice of annotation points suggests that implementation of the above is not the best way to go about objectifying earprint comparison. Processes like the above are relevant for any forensic science dealing with identification (e.g., of glass, tool marks, fibers, faces, fingers, handwriting, speakers) where manual (nonautomated) processes play a role. In these cases, results may be operator dependent and the dependencies need to be studied.     

Improving impact evaluations through randomised experiments: The challenge of the National Research Council report for European criminology

The National Research Council (NRC) report on Improving Evaluation of Anticrime Programs presents and discusses a wide array of techniques of evaluation. Although recognising the very high internal validity of randomised experiments, it considers, under certain conditions, quasi-experiments and observational studies as equally valid approaches. This conclusion is critically reviewed from a European perspective, where only a few randomised trials have been realised so far. It is argued that many critiques routinely addressed to randomised experiments, such as ethical concerns or low acceptance among practitioners, are either unfounded or can be adequately dealt with through imaginative adjustments. On the other hand, randomised controlled trials need to take the challenge of broadening the perspective, especially by looking at long-term effects that no other method can consider with comparable internal validity. Other recommendations include using innovative measures of re-offending, considering dynamic rather than static criteria of re-offending, and looking, beyond re-offending, at rehabilitation in other areas of life. Particular challenges are the possible placebo effects that evaluators in criminal justice have not yet found appropriate ways to deal with.