From voter ID to party ID: How political parties affect perceptions of election fraud in the U.S.

This paper uses a survey experiment to assess what individuals understand about election fraud and under what circumstances they see it as a problem. I argue that political parties are central to answering both these questions. Results from the 2011 CCES survey suggest respondents are able to differentiate between the relative incentives of Democrats and Republicans where fraud tactics are concerned, but whether voters see these tactics as problematic is heavily influenced by partisan bias. The results show little support for the notion that partisan ideology drives fraud assessments, and suggest support for the idea that individual concerns for fraud are shaped a desire for their preferred candidate to win. These results offer insights that might be applied more broadly to questions of perceptions of electoral integrity and procedural fairness in democracies.     

Prediction of violent and sexual offences: A replication study of the VRAG in Switzerland

Abstract

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument and has been validated in different countries. However, there is no investigation supporting the predictive accuracy of the VRAG in the German language area. The VRAG scores of 79 violent and sexual offenders in Switzerland were assessed based on data from their psychiatric expert opinions. The VRAG scores were compared to subsequent recidivism as shown in the official criminal records. Consistent with past research in the English language area, the VRAG yielded a satisfying predictive accuracy (ROC area = .73), demonstrating its usefulness for risk assessment of violent delinquency in the Swiss cultural and German language area.     

优化公安院校培训模式的路径

公安院校应从强化培养双师型教师队伍、面向实战,创新教学模式、突出公安工作使命,更新教学内容来构筑公安在职民警教育培训模式;依托"金盾工程"建立数字网络化交流平台,让公安院校学报与公安机关联办专业刊物和研究课题,将科研纳入民警考核机制,走面向公安实战的"警、学、研"之路。     

Age,period and cohort analysis in a comparative context: Political generations and political participation repertoires in Western Europe

This paper presents a method for studying age-period-cohort effects in a comparative context where repeated cross-sectional data are available covering a suitably long period of time. The method consists in the application of multi-level models with country as the higher level of analysis and random coefficients to model variables which vary at the country-level. Additionally, the application of generalized additive models (GAMs) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) provides robust empirical tests of cohort categorizations applied in this and previous studies to estimate otherwise collinear effects. To illustrate the method, I derive and test the theory that generations will be differentiated in their patterns of participation based on the ascendancy of certain repertoires in the era of their political socialization.     

海西“两岸经贸合作紧密区域”建设相关问题研究

目前，海西建设面临重要的发展机遇期，也是基础性投入的重点时期，更多需要仰赖外源性投入和政策性投入。因此，借重与海峡东岸台湾地区之间的“五缘”优势和先行先试的政策优势，通过建立、完善不同特色、不同层级的“两岸经贸合作载体功能区”，促进海西对台产业的深度对接，推进海西“两岸经贸合作紧密区域”建设，以尽快形成多个具有功能特色、梯度分工合作的地域增长极，推进海西建设快速启动和高效发展，至关重要。其策略取向在于充分发挥闽南地区的作用，科学统筹对台产业深度对接，大力完善、提升既有政策型对台经贸合作“载体功能区”的功能，设立新政策型“载体功能区”。     

当前我国警察史研究的几点思考

探究不同历史时期警察制度的性质、结构、职能以及警察与警政运作的关系，能真实反映各时期的社会治安状况，同时透过警政建设的表象，探究国家政权建设与社会发展状况，为现实公安工作提供历史借鉴，因此，深化警察史研究具有学理与实践层面的双重意义。针对当前我国警察史研究的不足，需要借鉴其他学科理论，从新的视角，以更全面的研究方法做深入探讨，拓展其研究的广度和深度。     

我国高速公路突发事件应急机制研究

目前，我国高速公路突发事件应急机制存在应急机构不健全、预防机制不完善、缺乏有效的预警机制和应急处置机构联动效率有待进一步提高等问题，应健全应急组织机构、完善应急预防机制、健全预警机制和建立健全应急联动机制，以进一步提高公安机关应对高速公路突发事件的能力。     

庭前会议中非法证据排除处理方法研究

2013年1月施行的《刑事诉讼法》中增加了庭前会议程序,其中对于非法证据排除的相关内容引起了法学理论界和司法实务部门的广泛关注,对庭前会议司法实践的实证研究表明庭前会议程序本身还存在法规模糊、制度欠缺等问题,其中对于非法证据的处理更是争议的焦点.在系统分析我国现行法律法规体系中有关庭前会议中非法证据排除的相关条款的基础之上,通过对司法实践以及法学理论界的不同观点的考察,本文从我国当前刑事司法体系发展阶段及特点出发,提出除控辩双方争议较大的情况以外,非法证据排除问题原则上应当在庭前会议中解决,同时法律法规应明确庭前会议中非法证据排除决定的效力.     

Tominaga Nakamoto and the Origin of Japan's Oriental Studies

Tominaga Nakamoto, a Japanese scholar of the early 18th century, changed the basic pattern of Japans Buddhist and Confucianist studies with his books Shutsujō Kōgo (Words after Enlightenment) and Okina no Fumi (The Writings of an Old Man). In the former book, based on his analysis of Chinese culture in terms of Confucianism and Indian culture from the viewpoint of Buddhism, he compared Indian, Chinese and Japanese culture and summarized their characteristics with the words “fanciful”, “elegant” and “simple” respectively. In the meantime, in combing through the development of Buddhism he put forward a set of key concepts in relation to his research methodology, extending his domain from country-specific studies to Asia regional studies and finally Oriental studies. In the latter book, he used the concept “makoto”, roughly meaning “practicing the good”, to synthesize the Way of the three nations. His study transformed Japanese Confucianism and Buddhism from a system of belief to an academic field. Despite his rational analysis and criticism of the traditional oriental culture, Tominaga consciously identified with it and inherited it. As the first scholar in early modern Japan who developed his own research methodology, Tominaga is the trailblazer of Oriental studies.     

自然法思想对民法和国际法的贡献

自然法理论与罗马法学相结合,使罗马法优越于同时代其他国家的法律;自然法观念促使人们发出对法典化的呼唤,著名的《法国民法典》和《德国民法典》得以诞生;自然法是国际法的基础或渊源。