Winds of Change: Voter Blame and Storm Gudrun in the 2006 Swedish Parliamentary Election

Can a natural disaster shift long-standing party support for the long-term? Studies of political behavior indicate that, as elections approach, voters punish or credit governments based on their responses to severe weather phenomena. It may still be considered an open question, however, if poor crisis response could trigger more durable shifts in long-standing party support. I provide empirical evidence suggesting that it could. I exploit a crucial case for the study of change in party support, Storm Gudrun (Erwin), to examine long lasting punishment effects over crisis response. The estimated effect is of a magnitude that equals the largest block-transfer of voters in Swedish history and can be seen over three parliamentary elections (2006, 2010 and 2014).     

海洋经济:“十二五”期间中国经济发展的新动力

实现经济可持续发展的关键在于挖掘新的经济增长动力。海洋产业对国民经济的需求结构、产业结构和区域结构产生至关重要的影响,发展海洋经济是中国实现可持续发展的重要载体。本文从海洋经济对国民经济作用、海洋产业升级的影响以及海洋开发的区域联动效应三个方面分析海洋经济增长绩效,从调整海洋产业结构、升级海洋经济发展模式、提高海洋环境保护等方面提出对策建议。     

现代法治与民主宪政的金融解释

金融发展对一国的现代法治与民主宪政有着深远的促进作用。金融格局与工商文明构建了现代民主、法治的基石,内生化了市场对法律制度、民主宪政制度供给的需求。欧洲式的现代民主法治的建构与金融市场的发展有着极为密切的联系。正是由于有着与金融财富增长相匹配的金融民主模式,欧美国家的民主宪政得以确立。文章以金融秩序与工商文明的发展为主线,从金融视角,解读中国社会工商文明的系统累积与法律制度供给,金融工商文明的话语体系与思维方式,政府公权力与民间私权利的互动,对深刻理解与构建中国社会的现代法治与民主宪政,具有重要意义。     

Comment on Anthony Downs's “Have Housing Prices Risen Faster in Portland Than Elsewhere?”

Abstract

Forms of urban containment are found in more than a hundred jurisdictions across the United States. The lightning rod for the debate over urban containment is metropolitan Portland, OR, which has had an urban growth boundary for a generation. In the early 1990s, housing prices there soared, providing fodder to interests opposed to public interference in the private development market. Downs contributes to the debate by finding that over the long term, metropolitan Portland's housing prices are more in line with its West Coast and national contemporaries than not.

This comment first reviews some of the literature associating growth controls and growth management with housing price changes. I then examine how Oregon's and metropolitan Portland's particular institutional measures ameliorate potential price effects, offering lessons for containment programs everywhere. I caution that urban containment is here to stay and that the best way for development interests to protect themselves from undesirable outcomes is to advocate Portland‐style urban containment.     

Comment on Carl Abbott's “The Portland region: Where city and suburbs talk to each other—and often agree”

Abstract

The Portland, OR, area's urban growth boundary is an idea whose benefits to the region may depend on a willingness to expand the boundary occasionally. The parable contained in this comment suggests that the declared unwillingness to expand the urban growth boundary could have contributed to Portland's recent sudden increase in housing prices. It further suggests that an inflexible attitude toward the boundary could cause long‐run losses in employment in the Portland region, with few if any offsetting environmental benefits. Other regions should be aware of the potential drawbacks of installing such a boundary.     

The Rise of India: Overcoming Caste Society and Permit-License-Quota Raj,Implementing Some Economic Freedom

Two or three centuries ago most of mankind was still very poor. When the West outgrew mass poverty, India was a British colony and suffered from stagnation. When East Asian economies exploited the advantages of backwardness and benefited from export-led growth, India remained inward-looking and poor. The ‘Hindu rate of growth’ preserved mass poverty. Since the reforms of the early 1990s India has exploited the advantages of backwardness and some global markets. In this article, the roots of India's failure to grow rapidly before the end of the twentieth century are analyzed. Stagnation is blamed on restrictions of economic freedom, whereas growth is explained by the expansion of economic freedom. Before the mid-twentieth century, the caste system and the legacy of sultanism curtailed economic freedom and contributed to economic stagnation. Thereafter, democratic socialism distorted incentives and generated ‘permit-license-quota raj’ or a rent-seeking society. When some obstacles to growth were dismantled, vigorous growth followed. Although expanding economic freedom remains limited. India's growth potential is not yet fully exploited. Indian infrastructure and human capital formation remain inadequate, regulations intrusive, and the budget in deficit. The rule of law looks better on paper than from the ground. Compared to China Indian public policy still has a lot of room for improvements. ‘Maoists’ or Naxalites threaten political stability and economic freedom. Geopolitics may explain India's late, slow and incomplete reforms. The rise of Asia, in particular of China and India, generates geopolitical challenges of its own. Conceivably, the global expansion of economic freedom permits not only the rise of Asia, but the peaceful management of the coming power transition between Asia and the West.     

Varieties of capitalism and the Estonian economy: Institutions,growth and crisis in a liberal market economy

This article examines Estonia's economic institutions, performance and vulnerability to the global economic crisis in the context of the varieties of capitalism framework. It shows that Estonia shares many characteristics of a liberal market economy, but that there are also some features which do not fit the classical model, notably its corporate governance institutions. It also suggests that the varieties of capitalism framework can account for key features of Estonia's economic performance, including its growth trajectory and adjustment to the global financial crisis. The article also reflects on the broader significance of these findings for understanding post-communist capitalism.     

Changes in surveillance of regulatory enforcement progragrammes in Singapore

In recent years Myanmar underwent drastic political changes. While many see these changes as first tentative steps towards democratization, we argue that the current political transformation is not a deliberate process of liberalization, but a survival strategy of the military regime. Using arguments of the ‘new institutionalism’ as a theoretical foundation, this article explores the hypothesis that the high degree of professionalization of the Burmese military creates the incentive to institutionalize power-sharing among the ruling elite. Our empirical analysis finds evidence for both a highly professionalized military and institutions that by securing the military's continuing dominance serve the purpose of institutionalizing military power- sharing. These results imply that further democratization is unlikely as it must be initiated from within the still dominating military itself.     

The entrepreneurial society

This paper explains why and how entrepreneurship has emerged as an engine of economic growth, employment creation and competitiveness in global markets. The entrepreneurial society reflects the emergence as entrepreneurship as an important source of economic growth.

经济增长的因素分析——基于中国的经验研究

实证分析表明,现阶段影响中国经济增长的各要素中,物质资本的贡献率仍然最大,而R&D投入、人力资本和外商直接投资对中国经济增长的贡献率相对较小.因此,努力提升人力资本、市场化改革等非物质资本对经济增长的贡献份额是下一阶段我国经济增长要竭力解决的难题.