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41.
Apart from the studies that focus on public attitudes toward higher courts in advanced democracies, we know little about the factors that can explain public confidence in the judiciary in a comparative setting. In this regard, the goal of this study is to explain whether, and to what extent, the country's level of democracy moderates the impact of political awareness on public confidence in the judiciary. This study uses hierarchical linear models to analyse the interaction between individual and country level factors by using the World Values Survey (2005–2009) data for 49 countries and various other data sources. Our empirical results show that in advanced democracies political awareness variables like education and political participation have a positive impact on public confidence in the judiciary, whereas in countries with weak levels of democracy higher political awareness leads to increased cynicism about the judiciary. These results suggest that a one-size-fits-all approach to explain confidence in the judiciary is not possible when we are dealing with a wide range of societies that vary in terms of many characteristics, both institutional and cultural. 相似文献
42.
Loess:: a nonparametric, graphical tool for depicting relationships between variables 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Loess is a powerful but simple strategy for fitting smooth curves to empirical data. The term “loess” is an acronym for “local regression” and the entire procedure is a fairly direct generalization of traditional least-squares methods for data analysis. Loess is nonparametric in the sense that the fitting technique does not require an a priori specification of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Although it is used most frequently as a scatterplot smoother, loess can be generalized very easily to multivariate data; there are also inferential procedures for confidence intervals and other statistical tests. For all of these reasons, loess is a useful tool for data exploration and analysis in the social sciences. And, loess should be particularly helpful in the field of elections and voting behavior because theories often lead to expectations of nonlinear empirical relationships even though prior substantive considerations provide very little guidance about precise functional forms. 相似文献
43.
Gabriel Escarela Brian Francis Keith Soothill 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2000,16(4):385-414
A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders. 相似文献
44.
Poland's major post-Communist party, the SLD, was an electorally successful legacy party during the 1990's. An analysis of Polish National Election Studies data and data from a separate study of new firm creation in Poland indicates their success was built on two important and related factors. One is the growth of new firms, which stimulated the growth of a centrist constituency who voted for parties supporting economic reforms. Second, the SLD adapted to this constituency by themselves becoming more economically liberal, as documented by Grzyma?a-Busse (2002). A conditional logit model of voter choice in the 1997 and 2001 elections relates votes to the distance between voters' preferences on economic policies and the positions of the competing parties. From this analysis we estimate that if the SLD had remained an ideological non-reformist party as did the KS?M in the Czech Republic and the CPRF in Russia it would have been a far weaker party as measured by vote and seat shares. Without the new firm creation, an ideological SLD cum KS?M could have been electorally successful as was the CPRF. The paper concludes by contrasting the the Polish, Czech and Russian post-Communist parties and extending the implications of the results to other developing and industrial economies faced with the need for structural change. 相似文献
45.
A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction 下载免费PDF全文
Louise Corron Ph.D. François Marchal Ph.D. Silvana Condemi Ph.D. Kathia Chaumoître Ph.D. M.D. Pascal Adalian Ph.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2017,62(1):18-29
Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0–12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. 相似文献
46.
47.
Tardivo D Sastre J Ruquet M Thollon L Adalian P Leonetti G Foti B 《Journal of forensic sciences》2011,56(3):766-770
Canines are usually used in anthropological and forensic sciences for sex and age determination. The best methods to estimate age are based on secondary dentine apposition, evaluated from periapical X-rays. The aim of this study was to propose a new method of sex and age estimation using 3D models to obtain more precise predictions using tooth volumes. Fifty-eight dental CT scans of patients aged 14-74 with a well-balanced sex ratio composed the sample. One hundred and thirty-three healthy canines were modeled (Mimics 12.0). The sample was divided into a training sample and a validation sample. An age formula was determined using the "pulp volume/tooth volume" ratio. Sex prediction was adjusted with total volumes. Applying the equations to the validation sample, no significant difference was found between the real and predicted ages, and 100% of the sex predictions were correct. This preliminary study gives interesting results, and this method is worth being tested on a larger data sample. 相似文献
48.
Grzegorz Zadora Ph.D. Tereza Neocleous Ph.D. Colin Aitken Ph.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2010,55(2):371-384
Abstract: Likelihood ratios (LRs) provide a natural way of computing the value of evidence under competing propositions. We propose LR models for classification and comparison that extend the ideas of Aitken, Zadora, and Lucy and Aitken and Lucy to include consideration of zeros. Instead of substituting zeros by a small value, we view the presence of zeros as informative and model it using Bernoulli distributions. The proposed models are used for evaluation of forensic glass (comparison and classification problem) and paint data (comparison problem). Two hundred and sixty‐four glass samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer method and 36 acrylic topcoat paint samples by pyrolysis gas chromatography hyphened with mass spectrometer method. The proposed LR model gave very satisfactory results for the glass comparison problem and for most of the classification tasks for glass. Results of comparison of paints were also highly satisfactory, with only 3.0% false positive answers and 2.8% false negative answers. 相似文献
49.
研究性教学旨在通过学生主体参与,培养学生理论研究与创新工作的能力。德美法学教育改革中逐步凸显的理论指向与实践指向平衡发展的研究性教学,对我国当前的法学教育深有启迪。借鉴德美研究性教学经验,发展适合我国法学本科研究性教学的具体模式,将为完善我国当前的本科法学教育提供新的思考。 相似文献
50.
Kyle L. Grazier 《国际公共行政管理杂志》2013,36(14):1532-1547
Although mental illness treatment protocols exist, the organization and financing of screening and treatment services inhibit access. These challenges are compounded for refugees, immigrants, and other groups vulnerable due to their ethnicity, race, or culture. By creating a system-wide, collaborative, integrated model that recognizes and addresses critical clinical and economic aspects in the delivery of services, high quality, evidence-based care can be made available to groups susceptible to the burdens of mental illness. Clinically and financially aligning primary and specialty care offers a viable alternative for improving access and quality of mental health services to vulnerable populations. 相似文献