Overlapping polarization: On the contextual determinants of the interplay between ideological and affective polarization

Previous literature has distinguished two types of polarization: ideological and affective. However, little is known on how the interconnection of these two polarizations (which we call overlapping polarization) varies depending on the political context. Is affective polarization always associated with ideological polarization? What is the role of the institutional framework (i.e., democratic age and popular election of the head of state) and the party system (i.e., elite polarization and number of parties) in determining how wide this overlap is? This article examines the contextual determinants of overlapping polarization by using information from the four first CSES waves. According to our analyses, the individual-level positive effect of ideological polarization on affective polarization is stronger when the party system is ideologically polarized and in older democracies, and is weaker in presidential democracies and when the number of parties is higher.     

Generational replacement and Green party support in Western Europe

Over the past decades, electoral support for Green parties has gradually increased in Western Europe, especially among young people. This begs the question whether there are systematic differences between generations in support for Green parties, and whether there are also life-cycle effects. We answer this question by separating age, period and cohort effects on Green party support using CSES data covering 40 elections in 11 Western European countries. We find that when controlling for period and age, each new generation is more supportive of the Greens than the generation before. We also find negative age effects. While Green parties can expect to benefit in the future from generational replacement, the consequences of aging societies are to their disadvantage.     

几种"社会主义"模式的比较和科学社会主义在中国的实行

介绍西方在一百多年来探索优于资本主义制度的几种社会主义模式的情况,并阐述了他们寻找到的科学社会主义的模式,这种模式被中国的知识分子接受并广为传播,而最终成为中国共产党人的选择.     

The role of mitigation and strengthening cognitive operations in brand names design: a case study of Spanish and American wine brands

Despite the relevance of powerful brands in the present-day market, research on the process of brand name design from a cognitive perspective focuses almost exclusively on the effects of the use of conceptual metaphor, and to a lesser extent, metonymy, overlooking the role played by other cognitive strategies. This paper analyzes the potentiality of mitigation and strengthening cognitive operations as tools for the systematic, risk-free design of new brand names with highly predictable and felicitous connotations. In particular, it focuses on their role in the systematic generation of axiologically positive brands in both Spanish and American wine labels, thus largely reducing the need for the costly and time-consuming cultural checks that branding companies need to run on new brand names before their commercial launching. In so doing, the interaction of the two aforementioned cognitive operations with a number of pragmatic principles and cultural models of social interaction, and their subservience to other cognitive operations, like those of comparison, correlation, and domain expansion and reduction, are also considered. The results of the study offer new insights on the semantics of commercial brand names which should prove useful for branding professionals, as well as data of interest to linguists dealing with inter-linguistic issues and cognitive modeling alike.     

Female Officers and Community Policing: Examining the Connection between Gender Diversity and Organizational Change

This study aimed to evaluate the temporal relationship between gender diversity and the adoption of community policing. The results from three separate structural equation models suggest that gender diversity is the stronger temporal predictor. The findings highlight the potential importance of gender diversity in organizational change. In theory, increasing the number of female officers may increase organizational agility through the creation of an alternative cultural ethos. More research is needed to understand how gender diversity affects police agencies, as well as how calls to reform the institution of policing affect women in law enforcement.     

Moderate,extreme, or both? How voters respond to ideologically unpredictable candidates

Candidates and parties often face a choice between endorsing policies that appeal to their core constituencies or generate support from more diverse groups of voters. While the latter strategy may make overtures to a wider set of citizens, existing literature says little about how the overall mix of issue positions affects electoral support. We argue that candidates who endorse diverse sets of policy positions appear unpredictable to voters and incur subsequent electoral penalties. Using data from the 2006 congressional elections, we find that ideological predictability substantially increases electoral support at both the individual and aggregate levels and that voters perceive greater ideological congruence from more predictable candidates. Our results have important implications for candidate and party strategies and suggest that voters are responsive to the mean and the variance of candidates’ policy stances.     

Earnings prospects,matching effects,and the decision to terminate a criminal career

This study represents an effort to investigate the age pattern of criminal involvement from an economist's perspective. It presents a dynamic stochastic model of sequential search and match evaluation which is used to explain the reasons for, and the timing of, the decision to terminate a criminal career. The behavioral implications derived from the theoretical model are tested using individual National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. Estimation results strongly support the prediction of a negative relation between theoption value of retaining a criminal career and desistance decisions. More specifically, the effects of current and future expected criminal earnings are shown to be negative, substantial, and statistically significant in determining desistance probabilities. Retiring behavior is also significantly responsive to variables measuring personal costs of punishment and the availability and attractiveness of a legal income-generating activity in ways consistent with theoretical expectations.     

加入WTO后西北地区产业技术选择的可能模式初探

本文较为系统的分析了我国加入WTO后 ,西北地区所面临的来自发达国家和地区的产业挤压 ,西北地区难以按常规模式发展的原因 ,以及西北地区重新进行技术选择的原则和可能条件。初步探讨了西北地区技术选择的模式。     

The criminal career: Estimates of the duration and frequency of crime commission

This paper deals with measuring two dimensions of the criminal career: residual duration and frequency. It reports results from estimating the parameters of a model in which offenders have a probability of desisting from further participation in crime following a conviction and, if they persist, a rate of crime commission. The probability of desisting and the rate of commission are seen as varying with offenders' personal characteristics and criminal records. Moreover, this paper discusses the difficulty of estimating models in which failure to commit a new crime might be attributable either to termination of the criminal career or to a censored follow-up period. The paper reports both successful and unsuccessful estimation attempts and discusses complications when distinguishing empirically between duration and frequency.     

Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.