Bayesian networks and the value of the evidence for the forensic two-trace transfer problem*

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.     

Economic and elections in Spain (1982–2008): Cross-measures,cross-time

In other leading Western democracies, the effects of economic voting are well-established. However, for Spain, a strong scholarly current argues against economic voting in that nation. Unfortunately, these various studies are limited, because they are based on incomplete survey cross-sections, which use individual subjective measures of the economy. We employ a full survey pool (of eight elections, 1982–2008), to examine the effects of two national economic measures (one objective and one subjective). In a carefully specified, and estimated, general voting model, the impact of economic conditions, variously measured, reveals itself to be statistically and substantively significant. After all, national economic voting in Spain appears to operate much as it does elsewhere.     

“侗族合款”研究

"侗族合款"是古代侗族社会独特的社会组织制度和组织形式,是维系侗族社会运转的重要机制,具有规范个体行为、调整社会关系的功能。随着社会的变迁,形式完整的侗款已经消失,但是"款"作为一种"活"的文化,并没有完全消亡,只是其表现形式发生了演变。对侗族款制度的变迁进行合理的分析和揭示,有利于深化对少数民族地区的本土治理资源和治理方式的认知,有助于加强农村基层组织建设和维护民族地区的社会稳定。     

社会主义模式的历史回顾和理论思考

要搞清莫衷一是的中国模式,首先应搞清社会主义模式提出的来龙去脉和科学内涵。剖析和反思世界上第一个社会主义模式——苏联模式怎样从成功走向失败,有助于社会主义国家选择适合自己的发展模式。中国模式突破苏联模式的局限并取得巨大成功。实事求是地正确认识和评价中国模式,可增强我们走自己道路的信心,鼓舞和支持社会主义国家,也为世界其他国家提供借鉴。     

Preventing discrimination in the automated targeting of job advertisements

On the background of the increasing amount of discriminatory challenges facing artificial intelligence applications, this paper examines the requirements that are needed to comply with European non-discrimination law to prevent discrimination in the automated online job advertising business. This paper explains under which circumstance the automated targeting of job advertisements can amount to direct or indirect discrimination. The paper concludes with technical recommendations to dismantle the dangers of automated job advertising. Various options like influencing the pre-processing of big data and altering the algorithmic models are evaluated. This paper also examines the possibilities of using techniques like data mining and machine learning to actively battle direct and indirect discrimination. The European non-discrimination directives 2000/43/EC, 2000/78/EC, and 2006/54/EC which prohibit direct and indirect discrimination in the field of employment on the grounds of race or ethnic origin, sex, sexual orientation, religious belief, age and disability are used as a legal framework.     

Modèles de citoyenneté et mobilisation politique des migrants en Suisse: Le rôle des cantons

La littérature récente sur la mobilisation politique des migrants a mis en évidence l'impact des modèles de citoyenneté nationaux sur celle‐ci comme structure des opportunités politiques spécifique au champ de l'immigration et des relations ethniques. Cette approche contient néanmoins des limites, particulièrement pour le cas de la Suisse caractérisée par le fédéralisme d'exécution dans le domaine de la naturalisation et de l'intégration des migrants. Ainsi, la marge de man?uvre laissée aux cantons en la matière permet de construire une typologie de modèles de citoyenneté cantonaux inspirée de la typologie nationale. L'hypothèse est que les modèles de citoyenneté cantonaux influencent la mobilisation des migrants sur le plan local en Suisse, non seulement au niveau de la participation mais également au niveau thèmes abordés. Une analyse des revendications politiques des migrants dans les cantons suisses nous permet de vérifier cette hypothèse. En effet, nous montrons que la participation et les thèmes abordés diffèrent selon les pratiques cantonales en matière de naturalisation et d'intégration des migrants.     

Sex differences in self-reported delinquency and official records: A multiple-group structural modeling approach

There has been a large increase in research in the last 10 years or so on the nature, extent, and causes of female delinquency, especially on how patterns differ from those of male delinquency. Few research efforts, however, have systematically examined sex differences in the reliability and construct validity of the most common technique used in causal research-the self—report method. The present study addresses this issue by empirically examining male-female differences in self-report reliabilities and the effect of the prevalence and incidence of delinquent behavior on official contact (i.e., arrest, court referrals). Multiple-group covriance structure models are employed to test hypotheses of measurement and structural invariance. The major conclusion is that while self-report measurement parameters (e.g., reliabilities) may differ, the structural link between the prevalence and incidence of delinquent behavior and official contact is generally invariant with respect to sex.     

Latent-variable models in criminological research: Applications and a generalization of Joreskog's LISREL model

This paper examines issues in LISREL models involving latent, or unobserved, variables. We discuss estimating parameters in multiple-indicator models, various approaches to assessing goodness of fit, different types of linear measurement models, using LISREL to correct for attenuation in models involving single indicators with known reliabilities, and estimating parameters in structural equation models involving latent exogenous and endogenous variables. Finally, we present a generalization of the standard LISREL model which explicitly identifies implicit constraints on parameters in the standard LISREL model. We argue that the generalization can accommodate a wider range of models and provide additional diagnostic information on some assumptions in the standard LISREL model. By example, we show how the more general model can be estimated using Joreskog's LISREL program.     

Models and methods of cost-effective child custody evaluation

Child custody evaluations (CCEs) are often seen as a necessity by the legal system when caregivers cannot find a resolution to their child custody disputes. In many instances, these evaluations are quite costly for the litigants and cost can act as a barrier to equal access to justice. Affluent families are better able to access private evaluators while families with lesser means may encounter delays in receiving services or be unable to afford an evaluation at all. This can, in turn, prolong resolution of league disputes, increasing the emotional toll on families, and hamper courts in making decisions in the best interests of the children involved. This article examines models of providing CCEs outside of an isolated individual provider private practice format. It examines the benefits and considerations for lower-cost evaluations, while discussing how to maintain high quality services that adequately assess family systems. Broader issues that impact the courts and overall access to justice through offering cost effective evaluations are also discussed.     

浅议秘密侦查之立法

秘密侦查手段是对付走私、贩毒、贩运假币,有组织犯罪等无被害人的隐蔽性、复杂性案件的一项卓有成效的侦查措施。然而,秘密侦查措施由于其方式的隐蔽性,手段的技术性,视角的穿透性等特点导致了侦查机关在实施秘密侦查时不规范,秘密侦查手段的效率难以发挥。我国应该借鉴外国的经验,对秘密侦查在立法上进行授权,对秘密侦查适用范围、条件、程序等进行规定,尽快制定有关法律,把秘密侦查纳入法制化的轨道。