论海运条约冲突的解决模式——以联合国货物运输法草案为中心

针对联合国货物运输法草案诞生后海运条约冲突存在的必然性,分析草案制定历程中先后公布的6份文本所呈现出的三种海运条约冲突解决模式:回避模式、优先模式和退约模式。认为回避模式太消极,应首先予以排除;优先模式和退约模式,均只能解决部分条约冲突,同时没有虑及未来新的条约。提出改进之途在于应一并考虑后法优于前法原则、善意履约原则、条约相对效力原则,同时适当运用条约优先地位条款。     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

Multiple democracies: political cultures and democratic variety in post-enlargement Europe

Democratization studies endorses a liberal view of democracy and political culture. Insufficient notice is taken of alternative models of democracy. I argue that a ‘multiple democracies’ approach that takes potential variety in democratic political cultures into account has three advantages over the conventional approach: it is sensitive to the historical and contextual nature of democratic regimes, it takes a dual imaginary into account, and it is able to conceptualize the emergence of innovative forms of political culture. Instead of a ‘model approach’, I suggest a multiple democracies approach that identifies political cultures by means of available patterns of cultural repertoires or ethics of democracy.     

What consideration sets can teach us about electoral competition: A two-hurdle model

Consideration set models (CSMs) offer a novel way to study electoral behavior. Until now, they have been mostly studied at the micro-level of the voter's decision process. By contrast, we focus on the implications of CSMs for understanding the phenomenon of party competition. We propose a two hurdle model whereby parties compete for both consideration and selection, pursuant the consideration and choice stages of the CSM. We operationalize these hurdles in terms of a party's inclusivity—is it being considered?—and exclusivity—is it considered on its own?—and formally derive lower- and upper-bounds for the electoral fortunes of the party. We also show how consideration set data can be used to sketch the competition landscape in an election and to characterize the system-wide competitiveness of a political system. We illustrate our concepts and ideas using data from the 2010 Dutch and 2014 Swedish parliamentary elections.     

Automated detection and classification of counterfeit banknotes using quantitative features captured by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography

Counterfeiting of banknotes is still a severe crime problem in many countries. One of the most significant issue for solving the crime is to classify the counterfeit types and identify the sources. Most of the current methods to classify counterfeit banknotes rely on manual examination that is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Moreover, these methods only detect surface features which can be easily imitated through advanced printing technology. In this study, an automated method based on optical coherence tomography (OCT) and machine-learning algorithms was proposed to classify different types of banknotes based on the internal features. A spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) system was employed for sub-surface imaging and quantitative assessment of banknotes. A total of 29 Chinese 100-Yuan banknotes were collected, in which 4 of them were real and 25 of them were counterfeiting by three different printing processes. Each banknote was imaged 10 times in 3 distinct regions, which resulted in a dataset of 290 samples. Each sample was characterized by extracting 2 A-scan (OCT signal intensity along depth) based features and 14B-scan (cross-sectional OCT images) based features. Several machine-learning models, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and random forest (RF), were built and optimized as the classifiers that were trained using 203 samples and applied to predict 87 testing samples. The best performance was achieved by SVM classifier in which the sensitivity of 96.55% and specificity of 98.85% were obtained in discriminating between authentic and counterfeit banknotes, and the sensitivity of 94.67% and specificity of 98.22% were obtained in predicting the types of counterfeit banknotes. These classifiers were also evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study where A-scan and B-scan derived features from OCT images have been used for the detection and classification of different types of counterfeit banknotes.     

痕检技术实验教学如何体现公安特色

公安院校应正确理解公安教育痕检技术实验课的性质,针对目前各公安高校课程实置和实施的现状,结合公安实践中的需要,改革公安痕检技术实验课的教学模式,分类设置,实施多种教学方法,提高教学效果。     

自愿、强制与控制引导--戒毒模式研究

控制引导模式是在现有的自愿模式与强制模式的基础上采用控制与引导这两种手段,将社区与强制戒毒区两方面的力量结合起来,相互配合,互助互动,创造一种协商参与的戒毒机制.应该在吸毒者从社区进入强制戒毒区、从强制戒毒区回归社区以及在社区实行自愿戒毒的过程中,一方面完善社区预警体系,加强社区控制功能,另一方面加强宣传引导,创造和谐的社区氛围,实现控制与引导兼顾,标本兼治的效果.     

THE CONTEXT OF MARRIAGE AND CRIME: GENDER,THE PROPENSITY TO MARRY,AND OFFENDING IN EARLY ADULTHOOD*

Marriage is central to theoretical debates over stability and change in criminal offending over the life course. Yet, unlike other social ties such as employment, marriage is distinct in that it cannot be randomly assigned in survey research to more definitively assess causal effects of marriage on offending. As a result, key questions remain as to whether different individual propensities toward marriage shape its salience as a deterrent institution. Building on these issues, the current research has three objectives. First, we use a propensity score matching approach to estimate causal effects of marriage on crime in early adulthood. Second, we assess sex differences in the effects of marriage on offending. Although both marriage and offending are highly gendered phenomena, prior work typically focuses on males. Third, we examine whether one's propensity to marry conditions the deterrent capacity of marriage. Results show that marriage suppresses offending for males, even when accounting for their likelihood to marry. Furthermore, males who are least likely to marry seem to benefit most from this institution. The influence of marriage on crime is less robust for females, where marriage reduces crime only for those with moderate propensities to marry. We discuss these findings in the context of recent debates concerning gender, criminal offending, and the life course.     

Exploring Some Analytical Characteristics of Finite Mixture Models

Finite mixture models have become increasingly prevalent in criminology over the past two decades. Yet there is no consensus about the appropriate criterion for model selection with finite mixture specifications. In this paper, we use simulation evidence to examine model selection criteria. Our focus is on mixture models for event count data like those often encountered in criminology. We use two indices to measure model selection performance. First, we examine how often each criterion chooses the correct specification. Then, we investigate how closely the finite mixture models selected by these criteria approximate the true mixing distribution used to simulate the event count data. We consider three sets of simulations. In the first set, the underlying model is itself a three component Poisson-based finite mixture model. In the two other sets of simulations, the underlying distribution of the Poisson rate parameter follows a continuous distribution. The analysis shows that both AIC and BIC perform well under certain sets of circumstances likely to be encountered by criminologists.