Outlook: The subprime lending crisis: Focus on the problem: Subprime borrowers in trouble

Abstract

Public policy should be directed at serving the large number of borrowers who have recently taken out subprime loans and who are at serious risk of losing their homes when their mortgages reset. Practicing forbearance and providing counseling for defaulting homeowners, as well as allowing them to refinance into a Federal Housing Administration loan, can be particularly helpful. Broad changes in housing programs and in the structure of the mortgage market should be considered on their merits as good or bad public policy for the long term, not simply as solutions to the subprime problem.     

Responding to the foreclosure crisis

Abstract

Regional economic downturns, speculation on skyrocketing home prices, and rampant unfair and deceptive mortgage lending practices have combined to create the perfect foreclosure storm in America. More than 2 million foreclosures are expected to occur during the next 12 to 18 months. Common to all three of these contributing factors is the reality that effective regulation of the mortgage market would have greatly limited damage from foreclosures.

This article traces the origins of the subprime market crisis and the resulting impact of foreclosures on the housing market, minority households, and the economy. The article also reviews the effectiveness of current interventions to mitigate or limit foreclosures and recommends broader solutions to help families maintain their homes.     

Nativity status and racial/ethnic differences in access to quality housing: Does homeownership bring greater parity?

Abstract

In this article, we use data from the 2001 American Housing Survey to evaluate whether nativity‐status differences in housing conditions vary by tenure and whether nativity status or race/ethnicity plays a more important role in determining housing conditions. Overall, when compared with native‐born households, recently arrived immigrant households are significantly more likely to be crowded, but either as likely or significantly less likely to live in poorer‐quality housing.

Further analysis revealed, however, that race/ethnicity is a stronger indicator than immigrant status in predicting housing outcomes. Among homeowners, black and Hispanic households, regardless of nativity status, exhibited lower‐quality housing outcomes than native‐born and, frequently, foreign‐born whites. Thus, we find that minorities are doubly disadvantaged: They are less likely to attain homeownership than whites, and once they do, they are almost always significantly more likely to live in poorer‐quality housing.     

Homeownership and neighborhood stability

Abstract

A major objective of many neighborhood revitalization programs is to increase homeownership. Conventional wisdom holds that this is one of the best ways to stabilize areas in decline. This article questions convention by presenting a conceptual model of how homeownership rates might affect various indicators of neighborhood stability and by determining whether there is support for this model in the literature. The article also presents an original analysis of the relationship between homeownership rates and two measures of neighborhood stability.

The literature review finds considerable support for an association between homeownership and both improved property maintenance and longer lengths of tenure. The analysis of census data similarly indicates less residential mobility and greater property value appreciation in areas with greater home‐ownership. Although initial values and citywide value changes appear to have much stronger effects on changes in property values than the tract home‐ownership rate, modest changes in homeownership rates are clearly associated with increased property values.     

Foreclosure filings and sheriff's sales experienced by low‐income first‐time home buyers

Abstract

This paper examines the recent history of supply‐side subsidies. The first section describes the programs that have had a major impact on the supply of low‐income housing over the last 20 years. The second section looks in some detail at the recent history of tax subsidies to low‐income housing and attempts to quantify their magnitudes. The third section presents some data on recent syndication deals to shed light on the return rate that seems to have been required in recent years to attract private investors into low‐income housing. The final section turns to the literature on rent‐seeking behavior and proposes a more efficient way to subsidize low‐income housing production.     

Comment on Donald A. Krueckeberg's “The Lessons of John Locke or Hernando de Soto: What if Your Dreams Come True?”

Abstract

Krueckeberg's critique of de Soto's paean to homeownership in Third World countries is well taken; his use of John Locke's rationale for private ownership provides support for the critique. But then Krueckeberg puts forward a proposal to extend homeowner‐ship benefits through a National Homestead Trust, with Individual Development Accounts or a tax like Social Security, to help renters accumulate a down payment. Abandoning a broader approach, Krueckeberg reverts to supporting homeownership as a central tenet of U.S. housing policy and wants to extend its real and perceived benefits to low‐income households. He recognizes the shortcomings of U.S. property law and tax policy that may leave low‐income owners with threats to shelter security.

To provide security for low‐income residents, fundamental changes are required. Attention should be paid to protection from evictions and from foreclosure; income/employment support; guarantee of services from utilities to schools; and, as needed, direct subsidies for housing.     

Demographic dynamism and metropolitan change: Comparing Los Angeles,New York,Chicago, and Washington,DC

Abstract

The fluid dimensions of demographic status—age, career progression over time, geographic redistribution, and growing duration of residence—have not been sufficiently recognized in urban theory and policy. Demographic dynamism deserves special attention because it is through the presumed consequences for people that we judge the desirability of economic, political, and physical changes in a city. To explore the magnitude and significance of these issues, population dynamics and associated poverty and homeownership trends in four major metropolitan regions are compared.

Los Angeles may be changing more rapidly, but its dynamics only accentuate trends under way elsewhere. Rising proportions of the population that are neither in the white “majority” nor black “minority,” the low proportion of longtime residents, and the new challenge of immigration call into question fundamental assumptions about links between people and urban policy. The meaning of both poverty trends and homeownership attainments must be reassessed.     

Estimation of housing needs amid population growth and change

Abstract

This article proposes a theoretical framework and more accurate methods for projecting the household growth component of estimates of housing needs. These estimates combine empirical evidence with normative assumptions about the quantity of housing expected with population growth. Recent California experience illustrates the theoretical and practical issues involved. Alternative empirical methods are used to model changes in per capita household formation and homeownership rates over time.

The results show great instability between 1960 and 2000 in the linkage between population and housing needs, casting doubt on which linkage to use for future projections. Past changes in housing growth are attributed to changing population composition and occupancy patterns for subgroups. Estimates based on a cohort method are lower than those using constant rates of housing consumption and conform much more closely to recent experience, but it may not be desirable to lock in the deficiencies of the past when projecting needs.     

Property values in inner‐city neighborhoods: The effects of homeownership,housing investment,and economic development

Abstract

This article examines the determinants of property values in Cleveland with a focus on three approaches to improving or maintaining neighborhood quality: investing in new housing, attracting and retaining homeowners, and encouraging economic development. Data comprise home sales in 1996 and 1997, investments in new housing from 1991 to 1995, homeowner migration between 1991 and 1995, and changes in the number of business establishments from 1991 to 1995.

The results suggest that (1) investments in new houses have a positive impact on housing values, especially for houses close to the new investment; (2) homeowner out‐migration has a negative effect; and (3) growth in the number of business establishments, except for social service establishments, also has a negative effect. These results further suggest that while programs to encourage housing investment and homeowner‐ship can increase neighborhood property values, care should be taken to avoid an inappropriate mixing of land uses.     

Homeownership and Nontraditional and Subprime Mortgages

This article documents the growth and geographic distribution of nontraditional mortgages (NTMs) and subprime mortgages during 2000-2006, and examines the association between these products and homeownership at the county level between 2000 and 2012. It finds a significant relationship between the origination of NTM and subprime mortgages during the boom and changes in the number of homeowners (positive during the 2000-2006 period and negative during the 2006-2012 period) but no significant relationship with the change in the homeownership rate. Looking at specific categories of the population, the results indicate a positive relationship between the presence of NTMs and subprime mortgages and increased numbers of homeowners for young households as well as for low income and minority households, but the relationship is smaller than for the general population. Overall, the relationship between NTMs and homeownership is stronger than the relationship between subprime mortgages and homeownership during the boom and it is less negative during the bust.