Mobilizing the Seldom Voter: Campaign Contact and Effects in High-Profile Elections

Decades of research suggests that campaign contact together with an advantageous socioeconomic profile increases the likelihood of casting a ballot. Measurement and modeling handicaps permit a lingering uncertainty about campaign communication as a source of political mobilization however. Using data from a uniquely detailed telephone survey conducted in a pair of highly competitive 2002 U.S. Senate races, we further investigate who gets contacted, in what form, and with what effect. We conclude that even in high-profile, high-dollar races the most important determinant of voter turnout is vote history, but that holding this variable constant reveals a positive effect for campaign communication among “seldom” voters, registered but rarely active participants who—ironically—are less likely than regular or intermittent voters to receive such communication.

可追溯机制的逻辑与运用——公共治理中的信息、风险与信任要素分析

可追溯机制在食品质量和药品安全的公共治理中逐渐浮出水面,成为2007年流行的治理模式创新.这一机制主要是一个信息记录的体系,包括了生产者、流通者、消费者和政府监管者四方面要素在内.形成了一个产品循环的网络图.这一机制就是要建立全方位的信息跟踪机制,以产品质量电子监管网为基本栽体,及时追溯每个产品的产地、时间以及其他各方面的信息,一旦出现质量和安全问题, 可以及时追溯主要责任人,让该责任人来承担相关责任.该机制的逻辑是以信息、风险和信任三大要素为基础,并根据这三大要素建立起相应的信息风险责任机制.这一机制对地下市场的治理也有着重要作用.     

The Cartography of Opportunity: Spatial Data Science for Equitable Urban Policy

As evidence of the contextual effects of place upon individual outcomes has become increasingly solid over time, so too have urban policies and programs designed to connect underserved people with access to spatial opportunity. To this end, many attempts have been made to quantify the geography of opportunity and quite literally plot it on a map by combining evidence from studies on neighborhood effects with spatial data resources and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. Recently, these opportunity maps have not only become increasingly common but their preparation has been encouraged and facilitated by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. A closer look at the foundations and methods that underlie these exercises offers important lessons I examine the practice of opportunity mapping from both theoretical and methodological perspectives, highlighting several weaknesses of the common methods. Following this, I outline a theoretical framework based on Galster’s categorization of the mechanisms of neighborhood effects. Using data from the Baltimore metropolitan region, I use confirmatory factor analysis to specify a measurement model that verifies the validity of the proposed theoretical framework. The model provides estimates of four latent variables conceived as the essential dimensions of spatial opportunity: social-interactive, environmental, geographic, and institutional. Finally, I develop a neighborhood typology using unsupervised machine learning applied to the four dimensions of opportunity. Results suggest that opportunity mapping can be improved substantially through a better connection to the empirical literature on neighborhood effects, a multivariate statistical framework, and more direct relevance to public policy interventions.     

Do Neighborhood Effects on Low-Income Minority Children Depend on Their Age? Evidence From a Public Housing Natural Experiment

We analyze data from a natural experiment involving Denver public housing that quasirandomly assigns low-income Latino and African American youth to neighborhoods. Intent-to-treat and treatment-on-treated models reveal substantial effects of neighborhood socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and safety domains on youth and young adult educational, employment, and fertility outcomes. Effects are contingent on when a youth was first assigned to public housing and the neighborhood characteristic in question. Benefits from neighbors of higher occupational prestige are stronger if a child begins experiencing them at a younger age, whereas negative consequences of neighborhood crime are only manifested for teens. Neighborhood effect sizes apparently depend on the interaction among exposure duration, disruption effects of mobility, and developmental stage-specific differences in vulnerability to the given neighborhood effect mechanism operative. Our results hold powerful and provocative implications for where assisted housing should be developed and how applicants should be assigned to neighborhoods.     

网络安全法体系中关键信息基础设施边界识别

为贯彻公安部《贯彻落实网络安全等级保护制度和关键信息基础设施安全保护制度的指导意见》,关键信息基础设施保护应当从基于对象的保护、基于后果的保护转变为基于过程的保护,区别关键信息基础设施的识别与认定两个阶段.在识别中,考虑互为依赖的类型、运行状态、耦合程度、基础结构特征、故障类型、反应模式等识别因素,在工程上基于过程评价...     

分家与分家单研究

在中国分家是有其特定含义的,仅指兄弟之间以及兄弟与父母之间的分家,而不包括女儿在内.分家行为是属于民事行为,主要属于处分行为.分家行为本身也是一项法律事实.从本质上看,分家单不具有合同的根本属性,不是合同,只是一般的民事协议.分家单只要有主体、客体和内容三要素就能成立.分家单的效力表现在三个方面:从财产的归属方面看,有权利证明的效力.对当事人而言,产生约束力.依法成立并生效的分家单,对于在其上签名的当事人有约束力,应当自觉遵守.从诉讼过程来看,有证据效力.对于分家单中记载的对父母赡养义务的分配,原则上有效.     

信息信义义务理论之批判

“信息信义义务”理论已掀起网络平台监管争论的汹涌波涛,该理论经由杰克·巴尔金(Jack Balkin)教授发展,旨在“一碗水端平”一般用户与搜集、分析、出卖个人信息为业的数据公司之间的关系。在处理医患关系、律师与客户、会计师与客户的关系时,法律课以医生、律师和会计师特殊的注意、保密和忠实义务。巴尔金教授主张,与之相类似,在处理脸书(Facebook)、谷歌(Google)和推特(Twitter)等公司与终端用户的关系时,也应课以公司类似的特殊义务。过去数年里,该论断赢得了广泛的支持,鲜有敌手。但信息信义义务理论存在潜在矛盾和模棱两可之处,其是否有能力解决上述问题使人生疑。故此,本文揭示上述理论缺陷,意在瓦解“信息信义义务”新理论共识。尽管我们同意巴尔金教授“占主导地位的网络平台造成损害,由此呼唤法律的介入管制”的论断,但我们质疑信息信义义务这套理论是否能充分、恰当地回应所谓的信息不安全问题,更勿论一些更为根本的问题——建立于监视渗透基础上的优势市场份额以及与商业模式相关的根本问题。我们也呼吁重视信息信义义务这一理论框架的潜在成本——我们担心,该理论框架会对网络平台的结构性权利产生一种盲目的自满,也过早地放弃了对公共监管的更美愿景。     

台湾地区的东南亚新娘问题分析

早在上世纪七八十年代就有东南亚女性嫁到中国台湾.上世纪90年代以来,大量东南亚女性通过中介公司远嫁台湾.这种特殊的人口迁移现象源于台湾地区人口中的性别比失衡、台湾当局推行"南向"政策以及台湾与东南亚经贸关系日益密切等因素.这些跨区婚姻对于台湾解决适婚男女比例不平衡、提高人口出生率、增加劳动力起了一定的作用,但也带来一些社会问题.为此,台湾当局与民间组织采取了相关的辅助措施,以帮助东南亚新娘尽快适应台湾生活,促进"新台湾之子"的健康成长.     

Political judgments,perceptions of facts,and partisan effects

We test two competing hypotheses about the impact of partisanship and information on people's political judgments and perceptions of facts using Canadians' reactions to a major scandal. Our findings with respect to subjective political judgments confirm the argument that partisan predispositions are crucial. But there is no evidence to support the argument that the polarizing effect of partisanship is most evident among the most informed. When it comes to perceptions of “objective” facts, the results are consistent with Zaller's reception axiom: the more informed people are, the more likely they are to correctly perceive objective facts. Partisanship does not appear to affect these perceptions.     

Contracting out local road and park services: economic effects and their strategic,contractual and competitive conditions

ABSTRACT

The economic rationale for contracting out local services is increasingly contested by empirical research. This article aims to contribute to this literature, first by scrutinising the economic effects of contracting out in local road and park services and, second, by exploring how characteristics such as markets, contracts, municipal strategies and contracting history influence these outcomes. Drawing on original survey data from Danish municipalities, we find that competitive tendering has on average reduced costs. Further analysis shows that savings are not associated with lower quality, thus indicating that ‘quality shading’ was not taking place. Another finding is that municipalities that repeatedly contract the services experience smaller savings, suggesting that competitive tendering is subject to declining marginal returns. Finally, we find that larger municipalities and those emphasising expenditure cuts realise larger savings, whereas the characteristics of markets and contracts do not seem to explain variations in cost savings.