浅谈警务信息采集分析研判机制的完善

完善信息采集分析研判机制,提高公安机关信息主导警务的能力就必须要:加强领导,提高认识,建设现代化的信息处理系统;完善制度,专人负责,构建全新的警务信息分析处理模式;周密采集,科学研制,发挥信息在突发应急公共事件指挥与处置工作中的作用;建立健全情报信息工作的激励机制,推动情报信息工作规范化发展。     

可追溯机制的逻辑与运用——公共治理中的信息、风险与信任要素分析

可追溯机制在食品质量和药品安全的公共治理中逐渐浮出水面,成为2007年流行的治理模式创新.这一机制主要是一个信息记录的体系,包括了生产者、流通者、消费者和政府监管者四方面要素在内.形成了一个产品循环的网络图.这一机制就是要建立全方位的信息跟踪机制,以产品质量电子监管网为基本栽体,及时追溯每个产品的产地、时间以及其他各方面的信息,一旦出现质量和安全问题, 可以及时追溯主要责任人,让该责任人来承担相关责任.该机制的逻辑是以信息、风险和信任三大要素为基础,并根据这三大要素建立起相应的信息风险责任机制.这一机制对地下市场的治理也有着重要作用.     

Mobilizing the Seldom Voter: Campaign Contact and Effects in High-Profile Elections

Decades of research suggests that campaign contact together with an advantageous socioeconomic profile increases the likelihood of casting a ballot. Measurement and modeling handicaps permit a lingering uncertainty about campaign communication as a source of political mobilization however. Using data from a uniquely detailed telephone survey conducted in a pair of highly competitive 2002 U.S. Senate races, we further investigate who gets contacted, in what form, and with what effect. We conclude that even in high-profile, high-dollar races the most important determinant of voter turnout is vote history, but that holding this variable constant reveals a positive effect for campaign communication among “seldom” voters, registered but rarely active participants who—ironically—are less likely than regular or intermittent voters to receive such communication.

警方线人及其法律规制

作为侦查机关控制的搜集与提供犯罪信息的隐蔽力量,警方线人在侦破有组织犯罪、恐怖犯罪等特定案件中发挥了不可替代的作用。然而,对警方线人法律规制上的欠缺,加之侦查机关在使用线人侦查中也疏于规范和管理,线人侦查中暴露出许多亟待解决的问题。总结我国刑事侦查中的实践经验,借鉴外国的立法,建立与完善我国的警方线人制度已成为刑事侦查制度改革的一个重要课题。     

论上海公安教育训练工作的信息化建设

公安教育训练工作中的信息化建设对培养高素质的公安人才、开展有效的教育训练活动、提高管理水平和工作效率都具有巨大的促进作用。与“培训”、“师资”、“考试”和“远程教育”相关的四个管理信息系统是支撑起上海公安教育训练工作信息平台的四根坚实支柱。     

Succession effects in presidential elections

What is the impact of ex-presidents on the electoral performance of their party's successor candidates for the office and how long after a president has left office are successor effects electorally significant? Mattei and Weisberg (1994) argue that successor effects are large primarily when the vice president runs for office immediately at the end of the term of the president under whom they served. Timeliness and the association between presidents and their vice presidents account for succession effects. This paper challenges the Mattei-Weisberg successor effects perspective, arguing that significant successor effects can be possible for non-vice presidential candidates and long after a president has left office. Using American National Election Study data, I add numerous successions to those Mattei and Weisberg investigated. Analysis finds that succession effects apply to non-vice presidential candidates. Further, some ex-presidents may influence voting decisions long after they left office. There is also a hint in these data that succession effects have climbed over time, because as polarization has increased, the linkage between presidents and their parties has tightened.     

法律文书中的模糊词语初探

法律文书在大量使用确切性词语的同时,还必须适当选用模糊词语,选用模糊词语的目的其实也是为了更确切的表意。法律文书在表述难以具体确定的时间空间、无法或不必确定的程度范围、难于或无需准确描述的频率数量、带有预测推断性质的内容情节、不便或不宜直言的情景事实等状况时宜用模糊词语。运用模糊词语可以使法律文书的语义更确切、表述更严谨、文风更庄重、章法更协调。法律文书在使用模糊词语时一定要注意不能超越一定的“模糊度”,不能偏离具体的题旨语境,不能忽略其与确切性词语的对立统一。     

Personal Criminal Victimization in the United States: Fixed and Random Effects of Individual and Household Characteristics

The present research is concerned with multilevel modeling of personalvictimization rates. Data from the 1994 National Crime Victimization Surveyare employed. Following the routine activities and lifestyle victimizationtheory, individuals' profile and lifestyle as well as characteristics oftheir household comprise the set of explanatory variables. The results ofestimated multilevel negative binomial models, which explicitly disentanglethe unexplained heterogeneity between individuals and between households,are discussed. The estimated random effects of household characteristicsshow that the unexplained heterogeneity for the average number of personalcrimes differs across household types. Further, the individual covariateswith between households random effects become less influential the more thebase personal crime rates are high.     

Developmental Trajectories and Intentional Actions

The article turns a critical eye on problems arising from use of largesamples and complicated statistics to handle multilevel designs. I arguethat although these have a legitimate role to play in discovering causalrelations, valuable information can be lost or distorted in the processof their use. Exploratory classification and tree diagrams show howtransitional analyses can unpack effects of community, family, priormisbehavior, juvenile delinquency, and incarceration on adult criminalbehavior. The analyses showed that in the worst neighborhoods, disruptivebehavior had little discriminating power with regard to juveniledelinquency or adult crime. They showed also that good family interactionsserve as protection against crime in all types of neighborhoods. ConstructTheory, I suggest, is a way to understand the influences that seem toproduce criminal behavior.     

信息系统安全与人员的教育培训

分析了我国信息系统安全的现状,介绍了美国在这方面所做的工作,指出了我国在维护信息系统安全方面存在的问题,对我国开展信息安全教育培训工作提出了几点建议。