Predictive crime mapping

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have emerged as a key tool in intelligence-led policing and spatial predictions of crime are being used by many police services to reduce crime. Break and entries (BNEs) are one of the most patterned and predictable crime types, and may be particularly amendable to predictive crime mapping. A pilot project was conducted to spatially predict BNEs and property crime in Vancouver, Canada. Using detailed data collected by the Vancouver Police Department on where and when observed crimes occur, the statistical model was able to predict future BNEs for residential and commercial locations. Ideally implemented within a mobile GIS, the automated model provides continually updated predictive maps and may assist patrol units in self-deployment decisions. Future research is required to overcome computational and statistical limitations, and to preform model validation.     

Off-Label Prescribing by Psychiatrists: What is the Practitioner's Liability?

In psychiatry, the molecules available and the dosages recommended when a drug receives marketing authorization are not always adequate to treat patients with major behavioral disturbances. Off-label prescribing is frequent in this context, with regard to the indications and the dosages given as well as to the drug combinations used. However, if complications or death occur, the practitioner's liability may be engaged. The authors report three deaths attributed to off-label prescribing in psychiatry and which led to charges against the physicians. They review the precautions to be taken when prescribing in such conditions (no other possible treatment, existence of sound scientific evidence, consent obtained from the patient, or their legal representatives except in cases of force majeure) and the physician's liability if adverse events occur that could be attributed to off-label prescribing.     

IDENTIFYING MECHANISMS BEHIND POLICY INTERVENTIONS VIA CAUSAL MEDIATION ANALYSIS

Causal analysis in program evaluation has primarily focused on the question about whether or not a program, or package of policies, has an impact on the targeted outcome of interest. However, it is often of scientific and practical importance to also explain why such impacts occur. In this paper, we introduce causal mediation analysis, a statistical framework for analyzing causal mechanisms that has become increasingly popular in social and medical sciences in recent years. The framework enables us to show exactly what assumptions are sufficient for identifying causal mediation effects for the mechanisms of interest, derive a general algorithm for estimating such mechanism‐specific effects, and formulate a sensitivity analysis for the violation of those identification assumptions. We also discuss an extension of the framework to analyze causal mechanisms in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized evaluation studies. The methods are illustrated via applications to two intervention studies on pre‐school classes and job‐training workshops.     

The Contingency of Voter Learning: How Election Debates Influenced Voters’ Ability and Accuracy to Position Parties in the 2010 Dutch Election Campaign

Election campaigns are expected to inform voters about parties’ issue positions, thereby increasing voters’ ability to influence future policy and thus enhancing the practice of democratic government. We argue that campaign learning is not only contingent on voters’ characteristics and different sources of information, but also on how parties communicate their issue positions in election debates. We combine a two-wave panel survey with content analysis data of three televised election debates. In cross-classified multilevel auto-regression models we examine the influence of these debates in the 2010 Dutch parliamentary election campaign on voters’ knowledge of the positions of eight parties on three issues. The Dutch multiparty system allows us to separate voters’ ability to position parties from their accuracy in ordering these parties. We reach three main conclusions. First, this study shows that voters become more able and accurate during the campaign. However, these campaign learning effects erode after the elections. Second, whereas voters’ attention to campaigns consistently contributes to their ability to position parties, its effect on accuracy is somewhat less consistent. Third, televised election debates contribute to what voters learn. Parties that advocate their issue positions in the debates stimulate debate viewers’ ability to position these parties on these issues. In the face of the complexity of campaigns and debates in multiparty systems, campaigns are more likely to boost voters’ subjective ability to position parties than their accuracy.     

Assessing the Influence of Political Parties on Public Opinion: The Challenge from Pretreatment Effects

Despite generations of research, political scientists have trouble pinpointing the influence of political parties on public opinion. Recently, scholars have made headway in exploring whether parties in fact shape policy preferences by relying on experimental designs. Yet, the evidence from this work is mixed. I argue that the typical experiment faces a design problem that likely minimizes the extent to which parties apparently matter. Because parties have policy reputations, experimental participants may already know from real-world exposure to political debate where the parties stand before they are told in the experiment—they are “pretreated.” This study investigates how real-world political context interferes with party cue stimulus in experiments. In two experiments I show that two types of “pretreatment” from outside the experiment—exposure-based and reputation-based—dramatically moderate the effects of party cues in experiments. Moreover, the politically aware participants—who are most likely to have been pretreated before entering the experiment—are the most sensitive to this interference from real-world context. Paradoxically, experimenters are most likely to find no effect of parties at the very time that their influence is strongest outside the experiment. These findings emphasize the importance of keeping real-world context in mind when designing and analyzing experiments on political communication effects and might help reconcile disparate results of previous party cue experiments.     

Can you keep a secret? Introducing the RT-based Concealed Information Test to children

The present study validates a novel version of the Reaction time-based Concealed Information Test (RT-CIT) adapted for young children (7–10 years). Their ability to deny the possession of relevant information was related to individual differences in intelligence, processing speed, executive functioning and affective problems. The comparison between the knowledgeable group of children (N = 84) who took part in a mock surprise scenario and the unknowledgeable group (N = 78) indicated that by early school-age the RT-CIT can be considered a relatively reliable diagnostic tool for detecting concealed information. We found evidence indicating that executive functions are predictors of children's proficiency in concealing information; however, the specific interrelations were complex (children with lower inhibition and spatial working memory, but with better shifting performance were easier to detect as possessing concealed information). Finally, we found limited evidence for a substantial association between parent-reported emotional problems and children's proficiency in concealing information. This investigation has practical implications for the development of rigorous protocols to detect children's concealed knowledge within legal environments.     

Ballot position and election results: Evidence from a natural experiment

Candidates listed first on the ballot paper regularly receive more votes than other candidates, but what role does ballot layout play in this connection? Experimental studies from first-past-the-post systems show that the ballot position effect is causal as the order of names functions as a cue to voters. Does this also hold for PR systems where voters may vote for a party instead of a specific candidate? We identify a natural experiment in Danish local and regional elections involving more than 10,000 candidates on 103 different ballot papers using ballot layout to study ballot position effects. We find indeed, the ballot position/layout has a causal effect on election results in PR systems. Our findings indicate that the empirical domain of ballot position and layout effects is much wider than suggested by previous research.     

When trust matters—a multilevel analysis of the effect of generalized trust on political participation in 25 European democracies

Generalized social trust has been argued to have positive effects for both individuals and society, but despite solid theoretical arguments in favour of different contextual effects, the empirical evidence remains scant. We here examine whether and how the effect of generalized trust on the propensity to become politically active is moderated by the level of generalized trust in society. We inspect two different causal mechanisms: The rainmaker effect, which entails that the effect of generalized trust is weaker at the individual level when there is a high level of generalized trust in society; and the sunmaker effect, which entails that the effect of generalized trust is strengthened by a high level of generalized trust in society. We examine the links for three forms of political participation: voting, institutionalized participation, and non-institutionalized participation. The data come from the fourth round of the European Social Survey from 2008 [European Social Survey. (2008 European Social Survey. (2008). Data file edition 4.0. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data. [Google Scholar]). Data file edition 4.0. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway—Data Archive and distributor of ESS data], and we include 47,489 respondents in 25 democratic countries. The results from a series of multilevel logistic regressions suggest that the effect of generalized trust varies depending on the level of generalized trust in the surrounding community but the causal mechanisms differ for different kinds of political participation.     

Housing Voucher Take‐Up and Labor Market Impacts

Low participation rates in government assistance programs are a major policy concern in the United States. This paper studies take‐up of Section 8 housing vouchers, a program in which take‐up rates are quite low among interested and eligible households. We link 18,109 households in Chicago that were offered vouchers through a lottery to administrative data and study how baseline employment, earnings, public assistance, arrests, residential location, and children's academic performance predict take‐up. Our analysis finds mixed evidence of whether the most disadvantaged or distressed households face the largest barriers to program participation. We also study the causal impact of peer behavior on take‐up by exploiting idiosyncratic variation in the timing of voucher offers. We find that the probability of lease‐up increases with the number of neighbors who recently received voucher offers. Finally, we explore the policy implications of increasing housing voucher take‐up by applying reweighting methods to existing causal impact estimates of voucher receipt. This analysis suggests that greater utilization of vouchers may lead to larger reductions in labor market activity. Differences in take‐up rates across settings may be important to consider when assessing the external validity of studies identifying the effects of public assistance programs.     

作为劳动基准的个人信息保护

劳动者的个人信息保护问题存在特殊之处,具体表现为资强劳弱和人格从属性背景下知情同意规则的失灵、工作数字化后劳动者被透视和被操控的风险、有组织生产的合作关系中个人信息处理的需要,因此不能完全适用《个人信息保护法》的一般规则。劳动基准法已经纳入立法规划,在其中就劳动者个人信息保护做专门规定,这是对数字时代人权保护新挑战的回应,对于其他劳动基准的实现也有重要意义。在劳动关系中仅遵循私法路径不足以保护个人信息,还需要配备公权力保障,劳动基准法的双重保护机制也契合了这一需求。作为劳动关系中保护个人信息的特别法,劳动基准法的相应条款应该考虑如何对一般规则进行调整,包括限制知情同意规则的适用,满足人力资源管理的正当需求,修改删除权、可携带权和自动化决策条款,协调主管机构、救济方式和法律责任。由于"必需"是一个语境依赖型概念,将来还应该通过配套文件来规制工作场所的视频监控等典型的应用场景。