西部生态脆弱与地区扶贫政策调整

随着我国西部大开发战略的实施,研究有关西部生态脆弱地带可持续发展问题的重要性日益突出。西部生态脆弱地带与贫困地区之间存在高相关性。缓解经济贫困与生态脆弱矛盾的主要途径是发挥贫困地区劳动力比较优势,振兴教育,调整扶贫政策,平衡贫困人口数量与资源供给能力。     

Challenging Institutional Denial: Psychological Discourse,Therapeutic Culture and Public Inquiries

ABSTRACT

The damaging effects of abuse in childhood were repeatedly emphasised in public hearings and in media coverage of the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse. Testimony from earlier Australian inquiries, which documented widespread experiences of child maltreatment, particularly in institutions, also underscored the ongoing and often intergenerational impact of abuse. Taking institutional child abuse inquiries as a case study, this article examines how psychological and therapeutic concepts have been mobilised politically. It argues that therapeutically oriented and psychologically informed cultural narratives of childhood trauma and its ongoing effects have provided a framework for making sense of long-term experiences of adversity and suffering and have enriched attention to “the question of justice” for survivors of historical institutional child abuse.     

论京津冀区域旅游特征及天津的区域比较优势

旅游产业经历了景点竞争、线路竞争和城市竞争,开始进入区域竞争的阶段。目前中国国内区域旅游合作掀起了新的热潮。从京津冀区域旅游的优势与增长速度看,发展潜力巨大。2005-2010年是天津城市十一五规划发展时期,也是天津旅游产业实现跨越式发展的关键时期,更是天津在京津冀、环渤海、东北亚区域经济中发挥重要作用的战略机遇期。我们应抓住机遇,根据天津城市在京津冀区域中的比较优势,塌下心来做好“天津城市在京津冀区域旅游中的发展战略”,包括天津旅游发展战略的市场定位、产业定位、旅游产品形态定位、旅游目的地形象定位,以及旅游资源开发战略和政策支持体系等。     

理事会能够提升社会组织绩效? ——基于全国691家社会服务类组织的实证研究

【问题】社会组织内部治理是其有序、有效参与社会治理的基本前提。针对社会组织内部治理的实证研究并不多,且存在中观与宏观割裂的问题。社会组织内部治理机制究竟如何,内部治理主体多大程度上影响组织目标达成,又如何受到宏观制度环境的影响?【方法】论文使用稳健回归分析数据。数据来自于2019年实施的全国性社会服务类组织调查,该数据采用简单随机抽样方法,涵盖56个规模不等的城市。【发现】(1)理事会治理能力与治理表现既能影响社会组织的财务指标,也显著影响其公共输出。(2)制度环境能够显著调节理事会与组织绩效间的关系。在支持性制度环境中,理事会治理能力、治理表现对组织财务指标和公共输出影响效应被强化。在消极制度环境下,组织自身的成长韧性可能是一种重要的替代机制。【贡献】即使成长于“强制性制度变迁”背景下的社会组织,内部治理结构仍然具备组织共性,核心治理主体能够显著影响组织绩效,尽管这种自主性受到宏观制度环境的塑造。这质疑了关于中国社会组织内部治理结构缺乏规范性、理事会形同虚设的研究结论,也为“依附式”自主这一概念提供了经验支持,增进国家与社会组织关系的整体性理解。     

稳步推进警察职业化教育体制机制改革

云南警官学院适应构建公安"大教育、大培训"工作体系需要,对不符合、不适应学院建设发展需要的体制机制进行了改革创新,为争取学院新一轮建设发展的主动性,推动学院公安教育实现战略性转变,更好地实现为全省公安工作和公安队伍建设服务目标提供了坚实保障。     

关于股指期货两种发展模式的比较分析

从股指期货发展制度的角度,股指期货市场有两种发展模式：诱致性演进和强制性演进。探讨股指期货两种发展模式的实例,用制度变迁理论对股指期货的两种发展模式进行比较分析。     

Is Incumbency Advantage Gendered?

Do incumbents have an electoral advantage and if so, do these advantages differ across gender? In this study, I estimate the electoral advantages enjoyed by incumbents in 10 Canadian federal elections, across 3059 ridings, from 1990 to 2021. Using a regression discontinuity design, I compare men and women who have very narrowly won or lost elections on three different indicators: propensity to run again, probability of winning the next election, and vote share. I find that women incumbents are just as likely to run again in subsequent elections as men incumbents. However, women who lose an election appear to be more likely to quit politics compared to men who lose an election. I do not find clear incumbency effects for probability of winning at the next election and vote share.     

Sustainable fiscal policies and budgetary risk under alternative monetary policy arrangements

Early work on the theory of economic policy stressed the importance of the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy. Tinbergen, and Cooper, showed us that there would be costs in instability and protracted imbalances, in particular fiscal imbalances, if this was not recognised. Yet most models we use today treat fiscal or monetary policies as if they operated alone. This paper reviews the advantages of recognising those interactions. We consider three possibilities: fiscal leadership (in the sense of acting first), monetary leadership, and simultaneous decision making, each underpinned by independence at the central bank. This temporal separation is important because it creates an opportunity for punishment by the follower (a result from asynchronous games). Making fiscal policy lead, and monetary follow, provides fiscal precommitment and the best results for output, inflation and fiscal balances. In particular, it ensures sustainable public finances without the need for arbitrary (and easily evaded) external restrictions. We show these results are proof against override by rational governments; and robust to changes in structure caused by flattening of the Phillips curve, globalisation, market reforms, and changes in savings.

In the right place,at the right time: Opportunity structures and candidates’ chances of getting elected for the first time

The foundational principle of representative democracy is that legislative elites can be replaced in elections. Yet, first-time parliamentary entries have received little attention. We present the first systematic attempt to examine the conditions of first-time parliamentary entry in multimember district PR systems. We introduce an overlooked explanatory factor, candidates' short-term opportunity structure. While controlling for personal vote-earning attributes (PVEAs), we examine how competitive context shapes newcomers' chances in a pure OLPR system where party elites cannot skew competition between candidates. Our register-based analysis of candidacies in seven Finnish parliamentary elections (1995–2019, n = 7548) shows that while personal qualities enhance candidates’ chances, first-time entry is restricted by the competitive context, especially the decisions of incumbent MPs. The strong impact of exceptional PVEAs suggests that other “big fish” candidates may also shape competitive contexts. Overall, the study indicates that electoral competition can be rather restricted even in the most competitive electoral systems.     

崛起的中国如何应对美国的全球霸权战略

美国全球霸权战略由实力、联盟政策和混合霸权三大支柱支撑,这三大支柱都具有明显的双重性,其双重性又使美国的对华政策表现出鲜明的两面性。崛起的中国要洞悉美国的全球霸权战略,全面发展综合实力,积极树立正面形象,牢牢把握发展的主动权,按大国是关键、周边是首要、发展中国家是基础、多边是重要舞台的外交总体布局,以“和而不同”的外交理念,最大限度地扩展国际影响,全面融入国际社会,走与国际社会互相契合、共同发展的道路,在积极应对美国的全球霸权战略中全面崛起。