从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。     

Renewing IMF surveillance: Transparency, accountability, and independence

In this paper, we present a vision for IMF surveillance that seeks to produce a more accountable, transparent, and independent surveillance process. First, to make surveillance more focused, the IMF’s assessment should be principles-based; that is, the Fund should assess the overall coherence of exchange rate, monetary, fiscal and financial policies, with a view to analyzing their effects on external stability. Second, the IMF should have a governance structure that increases incentives to support candid, transparent assessments of surveillance. In practice, this entails a different role for the Executive Board: the Board will set out the Fund’s strategic framework for surveillance; the Managing Director and the staff will conduct surveillance. These reforms clarify the roles and responsibilities of the IMF and its member countries in the surveillance process. Also, our proposed reforms aim at making surveillance more even-handed and objective. We believe that this principles-based approach can bolster the credibility and legitimacy of surveillance, giving the Fund greater influence on the economic policies of members.

从国际金融危机的影响机制看扩大内需的必要性及其路径选择

国际金融危机对各国经济的影响机制不尽相同,相应的治理机制也会有很大变化。与美国相比,国际金融危机对我国经济的影响机制几乎完全相反,主要表现为从实体经济向金融系统传导,从下游产业向上游产业渗透,从国外向国内、从沿海向内地扩散。相应地,应对国际金融危机,我们不会以金融治理为重点,而是以实体经济为重点、重心下移。在应对的内容和措施方面,必须综合治理,出台扩大内需的系统化解决方案。     

建立国际统一的管辖权和判决承认与执行制度--海牙《选择法院协议公约》述评

海牙国际私法会议于2005年6月所通过的<选择法院协议公约>系迄今为止国际社会在法院管辖权和外国法院判决承认和执行方面意义最为深远的一个公约.本文首先介绍了本文公约产生的背景以及公约的结构.之后,作者就公约中关于统一管辖权的规定进行了较为详细的评述被选择法院行使管辖权的权利和应该行使管辖权的义务、未被选择法院不行使管辖权的义务以及临时保护措施不受公约约束的例外规定.关于公约中所规定的外国法院判决的承认与执行制度作者从六个方面进行了探讨承认与执行外国判决的一般义务、承认与执行外国判决的例外情形、不审查与事实认定、先决问题、损害赔偿问题以及承认和执行外国判决的法律适用问题.     

东亚-北美经济失衡与再平衡分析

本文从国别结构和产品结构分析了20世纪90年代以来东亚—北美经济失衡的变化,认为美国贸易逆差不断扩大是其对外产业转移的结果,东亚地区贸易顺差与日俱增是其承接产业转移的结果。其中,东亚内部再次产业转移导致中国顺差迅速膨胀。为了实现东亚—北美经济再平衡,美国需要采取一些措施扩大出口,控制过度的信贷消费,并对美元采取更加负责的政策;东亚地区需要努力实现由外需驱动型向内需驱动型增长方式的转变,加快产业调整与升级,并把产业链向其他地区延伸。     

Evaluation of canine training aids containment for homemade explosive and components by headspace analysis and canine testing

While canines are most commonly trained to detect traditional explosives, such as nitroaromatics and smokeless powders, homemade explosives (HMEs), such as fuel–oxidizer mixtures, are arguably a greater threat. As such, it is imperative that canines are sufficiently trained in the detection of such HMEs. The training aid delivery device (TADD) is a primary containment device that has been used to house HMEs and HME components for canine detection training purposes. This research assesses the odor release from HME components, ammonium nitrate (AN), urea nitrate (UN), and potassium chlorate (PC), housed in TADDs. Canine odor recognition tests (ORTs) were used with analytical data to determine the detectability of TADDs containing AN, UN, or PC. Headspace analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) with solid-phase microextraction (SPME) or online cryotrapping were used to measure ammonia or chlorine, as well as other unwanted odorants, emanating from bulk AN, UN, and PC in TADDs over 28 weeks. The analytical data showed variation in the amount of ammonia and chlorine over time, with ammonia from AN and UN decreasing slowly over time and the abundance of chlorine from PC TADDs dependent on the frequency of exposure to ambient air. Even with these variations in odor abundance, canines previously trained to detect bulk explosive HME components were able to detect all three targets in glass and plastic TADDs for at least 18 months after loading. Detection proficiency ranged from 64% to 100% and was not found to be dependent on either age of material.     

从法律适用条款看冲突法对国际格式合同的规制

国际格式合同分为国际示范合同和国际附和合同。随着各国对外民商事交往的发展 ,国际格式合同使用得越来越频繁。尤其是世界贸易组织的建立 ,服务贸易的迅猛发展 ,更是为国际格式合同的使用搭建了广阔平台。分析国际格式合同的法律适用条款 ,旨在冲突法方面规制格式合同 ,保护当事人的合法权益     

对条约在国际法中的地位、缺陷与发展趋势问题的探讨

在今天 ,随着国际社会各个成员之间的相互联系、相互依赖程度的不断加深 ,条约在国际法和国际关系中占有重要地位。可以说 ,一部国际法的产生和发展的历史 ,同时也是一部条约产生和发展的历史。由于条约具有能够快速、及时、明确地确定各类国际法主体之间的权利和义务关系的优点 ,条约已经成为当代国际法上的最重要的渊源。另外 ,条约不但是国际法主体参与国际关系和进行国际交换的主要工具 ,而且成为国际法主体解决彼此之间各种争端的必不可少的法律工具。最后 ,条约争端的解决机制既是对现行国际争端解决机制的发展 ,又有利于维护国际社会的和平与安全。但是 ,另一方面 ,不可否认的是 ,条约也存在诸多不大可能克服的缺陷 ,如条约的非普遍性、条约执行的非自动性以及条约往往不能得到很好的遵守和执行等等。     

“金砖五国”服务贸易竞争力比较分析

本文在综合既有关于国际服务贸易的理论及实证研究成果的基础上,以贸易竞争优势指数(TC指数)和出口比较绩效指数(CEP指数)为分析工具针对1997~2011年"金砖五国"各个服务贸易部门国际竞争力进行了纵向比较分析;再分别对按照生产要素密集度划分的劳动、资本及技术密集型服务的TC指数和CEP指数进行加权综合得到五个国家的综合国际竞争力指数并进行横向比较研究。通过对巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非贸易数据的分析及比较研究,总结这五个新兴市场国家服务贸易的发展现状、竞争优势及发展趋势。     

Secrecy and Self-Interest: When Mediators Act Deceitfully

3rd party intervention in interstate conflict is a common strategy for mitigating conflict and obtaining a final agreement. However, not all mediations are successful, leading to the development of a rich literature on the mechanisms which decrease the probability of failure in a 3rd-party intervention. Within this literature, some studies examine how a mediator’ behavior and incentives affect the result of the mediation. Virtually all these studies assume that the mediator is virtuous such that peace is the most desired outcome of a conflict for her. However, this study challenges this assumption and contends that a mediator can gain benefit from the conflict between disputants. If this benefit is adequately large to overcome the benefits of peace, then the mediator has enough incentive not to conduct the mediation toward a peaceful outcome. We develop a signaling game model to study this issue formally and test the proposed hypothesis empirically.