Political stability,transition and conflict: Tajikistan compared with Georgia

Tajikistan and Georgia, in Central Asia and the South Caucasus respectively, are both small Soviet successor states with a recent history of political volatility and instability until the mid-2000s. Nevertheless, these independent countries have eventually developed diverging policies, notably with regard to their political alliances and world orientations. The Tajikistani Civil War resembles in many ways that of the Chechen conflict and also helps us understand the Syrian conflict. Similar to Georgia, Tajikistan had experienced the collapse of state institutions more intensely than other Soviet republics. Although contingent and actor-driven factors may have influenced the outcome, the influence of structural factors has been far greater than those agency-driven factors. This review article discusses, and tries to offer understanding and explanations for, political stability, transition and conflict in these two countries.     

Backsliding and Reversal: The J Curve Revisited

In this article we argue that democratic transitions can reverse, oscillate, or simply stall. These transitions are exemplified in the different types of states we categorize. We construct a model of stability vs openness using three dimensions of stateness, namely authority, legitimacy, and capacity. With the additional application of a six-fold typology of states, we offer a robust analytical framework with which to identify and explain changes in state status. Our construct of stability and openness leads to a novel development of a global conflict damage index, which is built upon conflict risk, but considers a state’s capacity to deal with conflict. The paper concludes with implications for policy and the application of the model to conflict prediction when states under go transition.     

Regime Change and Conflict Recidivism within Rivalry: Interludes in Disputes

How does regime change affect the risk of militarized disputes? Within the democratic peace literature, there is disagreement over whether it is democratization, autocratization, political dissimilarity or political instability that is particularly perilous. I distinguish four perspectives from this literature and test their attendant hypotheses on a dataset of conflict episodes within enduring rivalry from 1816 to 2001 using survival analysis. I find that both democratization and autocratization reduce the hazard of dispute recurrence in enduring rivalries. After controlling for selection bias, the effect of democratization was robust whereas the effect of autocratization was not. Democratization also has the additional property of terminating rivalries; autocratization does not. Together, the results imply that democratization is better at promoting a transition from rivalry to peaceful relations than is the autocratization of a rivalry dyad.     

宗教、冲突与国际政治

对暴力的看法、评价、运用的矛盾性是世界各大宗教所固有的特征,宗教与冲突不具有因果关联性。在人类历史上,大多数宗教冲突都是打着宗教旗号,但本质上属于政治、经济利益的冲突。当今国际冲突主要表现为西方和伊斯兰极端主义之间的矛盾和斗争,其中最突出的是美国霸权主义和打着伊斯兰教旗号的国际恐怖主义的较量,而且两者具有互动特征,道高一尺,魔高一丈,对国际安全构成了严重威胁。因此,只有反恐和反霸同时并举,才能建设一个持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界。     

The Why and What of Intimate Conflict: Effect of the Partners’ Divergent Perceptions on Verbal Aggression

The aim of this study is to explore the effect on expressions of verbal aggression of intimate partners’ divergent perceptions of what the conflict is about (its subject) and why fight over it (its motive), together with the effect of the period of cohabitation. The study focused on the couple as the unit of analysis. A structured self-report questionnaire was administered to a stratified probability sample drawn from the general population in Israel, including 452 couples (904 men and women). Findings show that there is an association between the couples’ divergent perceptions of the conflict motive and of its subject, and that these disagreements amplify the partners’ aggression toward each other. However, the perception of conflict motive has a stronger effect on the expressions of aggression than that of conflict subject, while duration of cohabitation has a moderating effect on the divergent perceptions of conflict subject and on aggression between the partners. The discussion embraces both the theoretical and practical implications of the findings, as well as the limitations of the study.     

The discordant voices of ‘security’

This article examines the links between development and ‘security’, situating these concepts within their philosophical and political contexts, particularly in relation to contemporary wars, including the ‘war on terror’, and the so-called ‘securitisation’ of development. The security of states does not necessarily ensure the security of their citizens, and the very concept of security is both complex and contested. The author provides a succinct summary of various interpretations of security – of states, collectivities, and individuals – showing how each is double-edged or ambivalent.     

“划一”与“创新”的制度困境及其消解以组织理论的视角审视现代西方社会制度的变革

制度创新有其必然性。西方技术理性的片面化发展,使社会政治制度也陷于标准化的技术理性控制之下,最终表现为制度创新与技术理性标准化的冲突,并导致组织冲突的形成与发展。而组织冲突的消解将最终依赖于制度创新,实现制度创新则应该以所有制关系变革为前提。     

Accountability,autonomy, and authenticity: assessing the development waltz conducted to a ‘kwaito’ beat in Southern Africa

For the purposes of accountability and uniformity, and as a way of giving insight into their intellectual capital regarding development practices, NGOs in Southern Africa are required by donor agencies to describe their intended activities in very clear, unambiguous terms. These requirements may include the expression of theoretical approaches, the development of logical frameworks, clear objectives, indicators for success, criteria for sustainable development, and relationships to government policies. However, the interface between reality and these planning measures and tools, most often completed without the input and contributions of the communities whom they are to serve/service, produces a much more messy, dynamic, and involved picture of the development process. None the less, the NGOs are still required to be accountable on the basis of their original proposal and planning. The author presents examples of this phenomenon and discusses the challenges facing an evaluator when dealing with competing principles of accountability, autonomy, and authenticity.     

Beyond the log frame: a new tool for examining health and peacebuilding initiatives

How do we move from identifying ethical principles to enhancing development practice? How can donors and NGOs move beyond the reporting of technical outputs to explore less tangible aspects of their health projects: contributions to rebuilding trust, promoting social cohesion, and enhancing good governance at community level? This article considers these questions in relation to health and peace-building activities in conflicted settings. It describes difficulties facing practitioners and donors seeking to undertake health and peace work, in particular focusing on the lack of appropriate tools for screening, monitoring, and evaluating projects. It critiques the logical framework, a tool commonly used in project planning, monitoring, and evaluation, and considers it alongside a new tool, the Health and Peace Building Filter, which has been designed to reflect on health programming in fragile or conflicted settings. The authors argue that such tools can help to move us beyond focusing on inputs and outputs to examining processes, relationships, and the indirect consequences of aid programmes.