Priming Presidential Approval: The Conditionality of Issue Effects

Variations in the effectiveness of media priming are traditionally attributed to individual differences in political sophistication and news exposure. We contribute to this literature by considering the degree to which the content of an issue prime drives its use in presidential approval. Using a macro level approach, we combine public opinion data on presidential approval from 1981 to 2000 with content analyses of presidential news coverage to see how media attention affects the way issues are weighted in presidential approval. We find that the effectiveness of issue primes depends on issue content, such that familiar and understandable issues are more likely to be primed than more complex and difficult issues.

地缘政治中的中美关系与台湾问题

台湾所处的地理位置决定了它在东亚-西太平洋地区的地缘政治与地缘战略中具有 特殊重要的意义。中美冷战时期,台湾成为美国遏制中国的地缘战略工具。随着中美关系的缓和, 台湾在该地区地缘政治中的重要性大幅下降。冷战结束以来,随着中美关系被美国的战略决策者 定位成战略上的竞争关系,台湾对美国而言的地缘战略价值再次上升。这正是台湾问题具有长期 性、复杂性的根本原因之一。     

美国“印太”战略对南海问题的影响——以“印太”战略支点国家为重点

随着印度洋战略价值的上升,美国在"重返亚太"战略基础上推出了"印太"战略,其战略实质是美国在印太地区缔造战略支点,并将其塑造成美国霸权下的多极格局。印度、澳大利亚、日本作为美国在印太地区的战略支点国家,它们自身在南海地区具有重要的战略利益。在美国"印太"战略的引导下,战略支点国家将对南海问题产生深刻的影响,尤其是将加剧中国周边安全环境的复杂化。在中美战略博弈的背景下,考察美国"印太"战略特别是其支点国家对南海问题的影响,有助于我们把握美国"印太"战略的实质,也有益于我们全面地分析南海地区的安全形势,提出应对策略。     

Do female legislators have different policy priorities than their male colleagues in an undemocratic/semi-democratic legislature? The case of Hong Kong

This article investigates the impacts of democratic transition on gender outcomes in Hong Kong, which has a unique path of transition. The author studies whether democratic transition in Hong Kong since the mid-1980s has brought positive gender outcomes. Specifically, this article examines the extent to which Hong Kong’s female legislators acted for women’s interests from 1970 to 2012. The study finds that after the introduction of legislative elections, female legislators were more likely to represent women’s interests than male legislators. Apart from gender, the study also finds that political orientation of a legislator significantly affected legislator policy priorities and/or gender outcome. Liberal legislators proposed significantly more motions related to women’s interests than conservative legislators. Finally, the study highlights that as the legislature was transited from an undemocratic to a semi-democratic body, legislators were significantly more likely to propose motions related to women’s interests.     

股票公开发行的监管合约选择——交易费用视角下中国股票公开发行审核制度的变迁

随着股权分置改革的顺利进行,我国股票公开发行审核制度改革已被提上议程。但与实践的迫切需求不相适应的是,我国学界对于股票公开发行审核制度的研究尚处于一个不成熟的阶段,现有研究文献未能对我国股票公开发行审核制度的变迁予以有说服力的解释,因此,无法为决策者提供可资借鉴的改革方案或思路。运用交易费用理论框架,对中国股票公开发行审核制度的变迁过程进行梳理,识别出在审批制和核准制下政府为降低交易费用而选择的监管合约,剖析了这些监管合约的内容和选择的原因,并在此基础上对我国股票公开发行审核制度的改革方向及可行性予以分析。     

检察一体化中“上命下从”的限度

目前,我国正在推进的检察一体化改革具有极端性,要求下级检察机关必须绝对服从上级检察机关的指令。但是,域外各国为了防止上级检察官滥权,对指令权进行限制。同时,下级检察官具有相对独立性,对上级检察官的指令有异议权;表示异议后,上级检察官应行使职务承继权或职务移转权;下级检察官违反指令作出的决定依然具有法律效力。我国应当借鉴上述经验,纠正片面强调上级检察机关指令效力的极端化改革。     

Policy signals and strategic voting for minor parties: Evidence from Germany

How does executive power-sharing in multiparty democracies influence voter decision-making? The current scholarship has identified two strategies that voters use to target coalitions and that involve voting for a minor party: Coalition insurance voting and compensatory voting. Yet these strategies are not differentiated conceptually, and empirically, are observationally equivalent. By foregrounding the role of policy signals in strategic voting for minor parties, the present study disentangles these strategies at the theoretical and empirical levels. It also proposes a new, hybrid, strategy. To do so, it uses data on the 2013 and 2017 German federal elections from campaign-period surveys, polls and an original dataset of the candidates’ tweets about policy issues. The results show evidence of policy-driven voters using a hybrid strategy in 2013 and a compensatory strategy in 2017. There is no evidence of coalition insurance voting in these elections.     

民事诉讼预决事实效力理论基础之选择

关于预决事实在后诉中的效力理论基础,主要有三种:既判力、争点效和事实证明效理论。我国应当采纳哪种理论,学术界分歧严重。《关于民事诉讼证据的若干规定》《关于适用〈中华人民共和国民事诉讼法〉若干问题的解释》《关于审理环境民事公益诉讼案件适用法律若干问题的解释》《关于审理消费民事公益诉讼案件适用法律若干问题的解释》充分反映出制定主体在上述三种理论间摇摆不定、难以抉择的心态。鉴于三种理论各有所长、各有所短,且无法将各种理论优点集于一身,综合权衡,我国未来立法还是应采纳争点效理论为佳。     

Vote choices of left-authoritarians: Misperceived congruence and issue salience

Often lacking parties with a corresponding profile, citizens with economically left and culturally authoritarian, or nationalist, policy orientations face a trade-off between congruence on economic and on cultural issues. How such left-authoritarian voters resolve this trade-off depends on which issues are more salient to them, previous research argues. We extend this line of research by considering the role of (mis-)perceived party positions. Using a survey in the context of the 2017 German election, we show how perceived congruence and issue importance interactively shape the left-authoritarian vote. Our findings indicate that many left-authoritarians vote for a party simply because they misperceive it to hold a congruent left-authoritarian position. In this case, issue importance matters little. Yet when voters are aware that parties match their position on only one dimension, vote choices are shaped by whether they care most about the economy or immigration. We discuss several implications.     

府际结构下领导注意力的议题分配与优先:基于公开批示的分析

注意力成为政策过程研究的关键要素,领导注意力的分配与优先性表达是理解政策变迁与体制运作的新维度。论文通过构建中央-省-市级政府首长的批示文本数据库,比较了府际间领导注意力在政策议题上分配的稳定性和多样性,并检验了议题优先性在中国府际结构中的呈现。研究结果表明:核心议题作为领导注意力焦点对其他议题具有挤出效应即存在议题优先性,并且随着领导层级的降低,其挤出效应愈发显著;府际间领导注意力在议题分配上的稳定性、多样性分别与领导层级呈现出正相关性,这亦与政府职责分工体系特点深刻关联;政治周期变化对于领导注意力变迁具有显著的“间断效应”。论文探索了多层次主体的注意力比较研究,为解释中国体制运作中的“议题优先”及其运作提供了注意力层面的证据。