现代教育技术在教学应用中的问题与对策

从现代教育技术应用的现状来看,在如何认识应用现代教育技术、更新教育观念、创新教学模式,运用教育技术思想、方法来分析和处理教育、教学中的问题等方面还存在一定的问题。解决这些问题,要重视对教师进行现代教育技术应用的培训;在实际应用中注意借鉴国内外先进经验,加强对教学模式的探索和研究,从整体上改进教学结构;同时在教学中教师要有效地应用教育技术。     

Explaining Regulatory Non-compliance: A Survey Study of Rule Transgression for Two Dutch Instrumental Laws, Applying the Randomized Response Method

Within a rational choice framework, secondary data analysis of a survey study on compliance with two Dutch regulatory laws is carried out. Selection of explanatory variables to be considered is guided by a heuristic device, called the Table-of-Eleven. Using adapted logistic regression analysis, we show that self-reported compliance, measured by means of a randomized response procedure, can be explained in terms of benefits of non-compliance, social norms and deterrence, while knowledge and general norm-conformity have no role to play. The impact of various contributing factors turns out to be rather different in size for the two laws.     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

对影响我国服务业发展因素的实证分析

当今世界经济,尤其是发达国家的经济发展轨迹中显示：服务业已成为各国着重发展的重要产业。这使得各国学者对服务业发展影响因素和服务业发展模式的研究逐渐兴起。本文通过对我国1994--2008年间三类服务业数据进行计量回归,得出实证模型,分析出影响我国服务业发展的重要因素。     

侦查错误的理性分析

侦查错误指的是侦查中证据材料所含信息的冲突,包括证据材料内的错误与证据材料间的错误。这些错误可以区分为独立性的侦查错误和关联性的侦查错误、根本性错误与一般性的错误。侦查错误产生的原因,既有证据材料改变和侦查技术不足而导致的客观不能,也包括侦查人员主观上有意或无意的歪曲。侦查错误的应对上,首先是充分发现侦查错误：以情理验证证据材料,以此证据材料验证彼证据材料,以确凿事实验证证据材料;其次是合理解释侦查错误;再次是立足于证据材料的关联性和可靠性而有效排除侦查错误;最后,在侦查错误并非根本性的,而且能在被合理解释的前提下,可以适度容忍侦查错误。     

海事审判助推滨海新区功能发展的思考

随着滨海新区开发开放的不断推进,功能定位的不断拓展,对外开放的不断扩大,一些新的政策陆续推出,对海事司法提出了更高的要求和期待。为更好地服务滨海新区开发开放,文章以海事审判的价值追求和职能定位为切入点,对滨海新区涉海经济的快速发展以及面临的海事司法需求进行了分析研究,提出了司法应对措施,以促进海事司法服务滨海新区职能作用的发挥。     

我国食用油价格异常波动的成因与对策研究

一般认为，我国食用油市场价格异常波动的成因在于国际市场食用油价格的大幅波动以及食用油料非食用原料化的影响。但深层次的原因更在于长期以来重粮轻油的战略性失误，进而过度依赖国际市场食用油资源，酿成了我国食用油价格受制于国际市场食用油价格的被动局面。此外，现行食用油储备体制缺乏必要的应急应变功能，未能起到及时调控市场、稳定市场的积极作用。为确保食用油安全，应当坚定不移地立足国内，在统筹食用油生产发展的基础上，有利、有节、适度利用国际市场食用油资源平衡供求。与此同时，要深化储备油管理体制改革，切实提升宏观调控能力和水平，改善调控机制，有效稳定市场，保障民生。     

金融危机背景下“合规性”贸易壁垒对中国的影响及其应对

＂合规性＂贸易壁垒的大量应用已成为当今新贸易保护主义浪潮的最明显特征。金融危机席卷全球,各国纷纷利用＂合规性＂贸易壁垒对本国对外贸易进行保护,这对我国的国际贸易和经济带来了巨大的威胁和挑战。本文从金融危机下我国频遭＂合规性＂贸易壁垒入手,分析其产生的原因和对我国的影响,从而探寻一条适合中国国情的应对之路。     

运用项目反应理论分析不同认知特点的题目

项目反应理论和认知心理学是两个不同的研究领域 ,把它们结合起来可以得到更多的题目信息。通常人们只是利用了项目反应理论提供的项目难度、区分度等统计指标 ,本研究发现对于具有不同认知特点的题目 ,它们的项目特征曲线和差异性系数是有显著差异的。高分组和低分组在认知结构上的差异 ,也可以通过项目特征曲线反映出来     

论海运条约冲突的解决模式——以联合国货物运输法草案为中心

针对联合国货物运输法草案诞生后海运条约冲突存在的必然性,分析草案制定历程中先后公布的6份文本所呈现出的三种海运条约冲突解决模式:回避模式、优先模式和退约模式。认为回避模式太消极,应首先予以排除;优先模式和退约模式,均只能解决部分条约冲突,同时没有虑及未来新的条约。提出改进之途在于应一并考虑后法优于前法原则、善意履约原则、条约相对效力原则,同时适当运用条约优先地位条款。