Testing the power of arguments in referendums: A Bradley–Terry approach

How can we determine which arguments in a referendum are most persuasive? We show that the Bradley–Terry model has several features that make it well-suited to this task, and thus preferable to other, more conventional approaches. Using a survey experiment conducted during an electoral reform referendum in Ontario, Canada in October 2007, we demonstrate how unstructured and structured Bradley–Terry models can be straightforwardly fitted and interpreted. In doing so, we gain insight into the factors which determine support for electoral reform. We identify a status quo bias and find that power varies with mention of fairness, local control over candidate selection, and the role of political parties. We conclude by discussing the limits, extensions and further applications of such models in electoral studies and political science more broadly.     

社会治安防控体系的基本内涵与运行模式

良好的社会治安是维护社会秩序稳定的保障。为了严密防控违法犯罪活动,有效应对并解决各种社会治安问题,必须充分整合各种社会防控力量,构建一套以违法犯罪为对象的防控体系。为确保这一体系的有效运行,其运行模式必须由多元主体来开展社会治安防控,做到长远目标与现实目标的有机结合,并采用各种行之有效的防控措施。     

Using anisotropic diffusion for efficient extraction of sensor noise in camera identification

Each digital camera has an intrinsic fingerprint that is unique to each camera. This device fingerprint can be extracted from an image and can be compared with a reference device fingerprint to determine the device origin. The complexity of the filters proposed to accomplish this is increasing. In this note, we use a relatively simple algorithm to extract the sensor noise from images. It has the advantages of being easy to implement and parallelize, and working faster than the wavelet filter that is common for this application. In addition, we compare the performance with a simple median filter and assess whether a previously proposed fingerprint enhancement technique improves results. Experiments are performed on approximately 7500 images originating from 69 cameras, and the results are compared with this often used wavelet filter. Despite the simplicity of the proposed method, the performance exceeds the common wavelet filter and reduces the time needed for the extraction.     

Australia and the Baltic States, 1919–1945

Praised by international organizations, Estonia and Slovenia have long been considered among the most successful post-communist states. Estonia quickly transformed itself into one of the most liberal economies in the world, whereas Slovenia opted for a social justice-oriented market economy. Still, the roots of their success coincide in that consensus played a crucial role. We argue that the public sphere was never as repressed in Estonia and Slovenia during the communist period as it was elsewhere. Distinct national identities continued to be formed and re-formed by intellectuals during the decades of communist rule, who assumed roles as political leaders when the transition started. Consensus based on these national identities legitimized reform policies for the entire decade of the 1990s.     

LONG‐TERM CRIME DESISTANCE AND RECIDIVISM PATTERNS—EVIDENCE FROM THE ESSEX COUNTY CONVICTED FELON STUDY*

Two conflicting definitions of desistance exist in the criminology literature. The first definition is instantaneous desistance in which an offender simply chooses to end a criminal career instantaneously moving to a zero rate of offending ( Blumstein et al., 1986 ). The second definition views desistance as a process by which the offending rate declines steadily over time to zero or to a point close to zero ( Bushway et al., 2001 ; Laub and Sampson, 2001 ; Leblanc and Loeber, 1998 ). In this article, we capitalize on the underlying assumptions of several parametric survival distributions to gain a better understanding of which of these models best describes actual patterns of desistance. All models are examined using 18 years of follow‐up data on a cohort of felony convicts in Essex County, NJ. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions. First, some people have already desisted at the beginning of the follow‐up period, which is consistent with the notion of “instantaneous desistance.” Second, a three‐parameter model that allows for a turning point in the risk of recidivism followed by a long period of decline fits the data best. This conclusion suggests that for those offenders active at the start of the study period, the risk of recidivism is declining over time. However, we also find that a simpler two‐group model fits the data almost as well and gains superiority in the later years of follow‐up. This last point is particularly relevant as it suggests that the observed gradual decline in the hazard over time is a result of a compositional effect rather than of a pattern of individually declining hazards.     

完善北京城市应急决策指挥机制

应急管理的决策指挥机制分为先期处置、应急响应和应急结束三大流程加以规范。目前,北京已经建立起了独具特色的"三加二"应急管理模式,建立了较为完善的突发事件信息报送制。然而,北京目前的集中式应急指挥体系与分散化部门权责之间存在着冲突,决策指挥机构间的权限划分不够清晰;在应急信息管理中尚存在着制度导向的误区,在应急决策过程中缺乏专家参与制度。北京城市应急决策指挥机制应当强化应急决策指挥机构的权威性,建立统一的应急信息平台系统;重构应急管理中信息公开的理念、范围和方式;建立和完善应急决策指挥过程中的监督机制和专家顾问的参与机制。     

Reassessing the alcohol-violence linkage: Results from a multiethnic city

This article examines the relationship between alcohol availability and nonlethal violence at the census-tract level in Miami, a multiethnic city with high levels of disadvantage and immigration. The effects of alcohol (total outlet rate) are considered from the perspectives of social disorganization and routine activities theories. Nonlethal violence is the average annual rates of robbery, aggravated assault, and total violence (combined aggravated assault and robbery). The analyses include corrections for spatial autocorrelation. The results show that alcohol availability has strong positive effects on rates of nonlethal violence and that the percentage of recent immigrants is also a significant positive predictor.     

公司法规则的回应力——一个政策性的边缘理解

法律现实主义者十分关注法律的回应力。按照法律回应力的分析工具,最佳的公司法模式是有很强"回应性的公司法"。全球公司法的回应力模型可以区分为私人方向的回应模型和公共方向的回应模型,中国大体居于一种中间主义的状态。公司法的回应力取决于利益主体的识别、利益机制的设计以及回应成本、回应时机的考量。按照法律分工的模式,中国公司法的回应力应更集中于公司、股东以及董事、高管的利益调整,淡化其他的回应需求;要细分不同利益主体的利益层次;在回应成本和回应时机上进行改良,强化立法性、民间性、司法性回应机制,成立公司法改革检讨委员会、承认公司内部解决纠纷的能力、成立专门的公司法审判庭或者商事法院、促使裁判文书公共化。不同的公司法回应力政策会产生不同的系统性效应,导致不同的"习惯性沉淀"。要使沉淀的"法律资本"有用武之地,公司法必须持续保持其回应力。     

The Impact of Pro-Government Militias on Human Rights Violations

New data show that between 1982 and 2007, in over 60 countries governments were linked to and cooperated with informal armed groups within their own borders. Given the prevalence of these linkages, we ask how such links between governments and informal armed groups influence the risk of repression. We draw on principal-agent arguments to explore how issues of monitoring and control help understanding of the impact of militias on human rights violations. We argue that such informal agents increase accountability problems for the governments, which is likely to worsen human rights conditions for two reasons. First, it is more difficult for governments to control and to train these militias, and they may have private interests in the use of violence. Second, informal armed groups allow governments to shift responsibility and use repression for strategic benefits while evading accountability. Using a global dataset from 1982 to 2007, we show that pro-government militias increase the risk of repression and that the presence of militias also affects the type of violations that we observe.     

创新空防体系：持久留空与即时打击

来自空中的威胁,正在成为中国国家安全面临的主要军事威胁。选择具有持久留空和即时反应能力的浮空器作为主战平台,建构符合中国国情的新空防体系,可极大提高国防投入的费效比,是应对“空海一体战”、“超快打击”、“离岸封锁”等军事威胁的战略性思路。“持久留空”是指飞行器能够以天、月、年为时间单位在空中飞行或驻留,它将提供远超过目前飞机以小时为尺度的留空时间。能够持久留空的飞行器不注重飞得更高、更快的性能指标,却要求飞行器在空中尽可能长久地停留。“即时反应”是指依托驻留在空中的飞行器对陆海空天目标进行不间断地感知、侦查,在确认遭遇攻击时可对敌方空中目标和发射基地实施即发即中的打击。建构“持久留空-即时反应”的新型空防体系,可以摆脱“三代机”、“四代机”、“五代机”的线性发展思路,避免模仿“介入”、“反介入”、“反反介入”的美式军事思想,寻找到具有军事变革意义的中国空防新路径。这对保持国家间的和平,遏制拥有军事技术优势的国家发动“先发制人”打击的冲动具有重大的意义。