创新空防体系：持久留空与即时打击

来自空中的威胁,正在成为中国国家安全面临的主要军事威胁。选择具有持久留空和即时反应能力的浮空器作为主战平台,建构符合中国国情的新空防体系,可极大提高国防投入的费效比,是应对“空海一体战”、“超快打击”、“离岸封锁”等军事威胁的战略性思路。“持久留空”是指飞行器能够以天、月、年为时间单位在空中飞行或驻留,它将提供远超过目前飞机以小时为尺度的留空时间。能够持久留空的飞行器不注重飞得更高、更快的性能指标,却要求飞行器在空中尽可能长久地停留。“即时反应”是指依托驻留在空中的飞行器对陆海空天目标进行不间断地感知、侦查,在确认遭遇攻击时可对敌方空中目标和发射基地实施即发即中的打击。建构“持久留空-即时反应”的新型空防体系,可以摆脱“三代机”、“四代机”、“五代机”的线性发展思路,避免模仿“介入”、“反介入”、“反反介入”的美式军事思想,寻找到具有军事变革意义的中国空防新路径。这对保持国家间的和平,遏制拥有军事技术优势的国家发动“先发制人”打击的冲动具有重大的意义。     

表面肌电在肢体肌肉功能评估中的应用及研究进展

如何定量的评估肌肉在主动活动和姿势诱发反射下他动时的肌肉功能状态对于法医临床鉴定工作具有十分重要的意义。表面肌电图,通过从肌肉表面的电极引导,记录神经肌肉系统活动时肌电活动,可以定量的反映肌肉的功能状态,其在肢体功能评估中具有重要的使用价值。综述了表面肌电在肢体主动活动和姿势诱发反射下肢体功能评估中的应用及研究进展。     

Robust Linux memory acquisition with minimal target impact

Software based Memory acquisition on modern systems typically requires the insertion of a kernel module into the running kernel. On Linux, kernel modules must be compiled against the exact version of kernel headers and the exact kernel configuration used to build the currently executing kernel. This makes Linux memory acquisition significantly more complex in practice, than on other platforms due to the number of variations of kernel versions and configurations, especially when responding to incidents. The Linux kernel maintains a checksum of kernel version and will generally refuse to load a module which was compiled against a different kernel version. Although there are some techniques to override this check, there is an inherent danger leading to an unstable kernel and possible kernel crashes. This paper presents a novel technique to safely load a pre-compiled kernel module for acquisition on a wide range of Linux kernel versions and configuration. Our technique injects a minimal acquisition module (parasite) into another valid kernel module (host) already found on the target system. The resulting combined module is then relinked in such a way as to grant code execution and control over vital data structures to the acquisition code, whilst the host module remains dormant during runtime.     

Confidence in an election authority and satisfaction with democracy: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of a failed election in Sweden

Contemporary research on electoral integrity has focused on the functioning, evaluation, and legitimacy of electoral processes in emerging democracies. By contrast, this study investigates whether a failed election in a well-established democracy can affect individuals' evaluations of the electoral management body, the Election Authority, and whether those evaluations affect satisfaction with democracy. Using the case of a Swedish regional election in 2010 that had to be rerun due to procedural mistakes in the vote handling, we found that, in the short term, individuals’ confidence in the Election Authority was reduced after it was announced that the election had to be rerun because of the mistakes. Subsequently, this decreased confidence was strongly associated with less satisfaction with democracy at the regional and national level. As good news for the authority, after a successful rerun election, confidence rebounded to the levels prior to the failed election.     

The British general election: Synthetic forecasts

Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These models, developed out of forecasting efforts from the American 2012 presidential election, we are currently testing in a comparative European context. In this exercise, we apply the strategy to forecasting British general elections, in particular the upcoming 2015 contest. These synthetic forecasts come from hybrid models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion. We generate ongoing nowcasts, from six months prior, to one month before, Election Day itself.     

Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions

To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament.     

Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The 1992 debacle all over again?

This article introduces and reviews a set of twelve academic forecasts of the 2015 British general election. Along with the vast majority of others including journalists and betting markets, they failed by a big margin to predict that the Conservatives would emerge with an overall majority of seats. Several suffered from the 1992 scale inaccuracies of the vote-intention opinion polls. Forecasts based on other data sources typically did a bit better, but also fell short. Nonetheless, this was not 1992 all over again. The dramatic collapse of the Liberal Democrats and rise of the SNP, UKIP and Greens were successfully anticipated. Also this collection includes numerous methodological advancements, with several new methods and developments to established approaches.     

Winds of Change: Voter Blame and Storm Gudrun in the 2006 Swedish Parliamentary Election

Can a natural disaster shift long-standing party support for the long-term? Studies of political behavior indicate that, as elections approach, voters punish or credit governments based on their responses to severe weather phenomena. It may still be considered an open question, however, if poor crisis response could trigger more durable shifts in long-standing party support. I provide empirical evidence suggesting that it could. I exploit a crucial case for the study of change in party support, Storm Gudrun (Erwin), to examine long lasting punishment effects over crisis response. The estimated effect is of a magnitude that equals the largest block-transfer of voters in Swedish history and can be seen over three parliamentary elections (2006, 2010 and 2014).     

Does the economy really matter for satisfaction with democracy? Longitudinal and cross-country evidence from the European Union

Research focusing on the relationship between the economy and satisfaction with democracy often presents mixed results. This article argues that this uncertainty is mainly due to model specification, number of surveys and measurement. After discussing why the role of the economy should not be overlooked, by using an empirical strategy that applies Bayesian cross-classified mixed models to 572 national surveys in 28 European countries from 1973 to 2013 drawn from the Eurobarometer, it is shown that objective macro-economic indicators and a subjective indicator seem to substantially affect citizens’ satisfaction with democracy in Europe. The findings are robust when controlling for various institutional and political variables and using alternative model specifications.