Do parties perceive their voter potentials correctly? Reconsidering the spatial logic of electoral competition

Political parties strive for maximizing their vote shares. One way to achieve this goal is to attract voters from competitors. A precondition for strategies aiming at attracting these voters is that parties perceive their voter potentials among their rivals' electorates correctly. Yet, hardly anything is known about such perceptions. To fill this gap, we develop analogue measures of a party's perceived and its actual voter potential for each competitor in a party system. Combining elite and mass surveys conducted in Germany, we show that perceived and actual voter potentials depend on spatial considerations but also that not all parties are able to correctly evaluate their potentials. These deviations can be traced back to differences in the perceived placement of political actors between elites and citizens. This supports the spatial logic of party competition but it also points to potential pitfalls for strategic behavior of political parties.     

The 2019 General Election in Northern Ireland: the Rise of the Centre Ground?

The experience of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland took a very different course to that of the rest of the UK and, indeed, to the pattern of electoral politics typical of the region. Coming after almost three years with no functioning devolved government, combined with intense disagreement and uncertainty about Brexit, voters were ready to give a message to the two largest parties. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP suffered losses in the election, with the headline outcome being that unionism no longer holds the majority of seats for Northern Ireland in Westminster. More generally, there was a swing from both sides towards centre ground voting, which brought significant gains for the Alliance Party and the SDLP. This article summarises the reasons for this broad trend, focussing on the conditions and electoral pacts which brought it about. It also considers what it might mean for the prospects for Irish unification, noting that a referendum on unification will only be passed by attracting votes from those who tend to see themselves as neither unionist or nationalist.     

Back to the Future: The Pulling Apart of our Towns and Cities

Growing divisions between Britain’s towns and cities have created a dilemma for the Labour Party in seeking to represent very different parts of the country. There are some who argue that Labour must choose the global networked youth—who largely reside in cities—in order to maximise its electoral chances. This is an argument that defies electoral gravity and fails to address the root causes of the gulf between towns and cities. As jobs and investment have gone into cities, many towns have seen the local population age and local economies become unsustainable. In both towns and cities there is a clamour for power to move closer to home and for the renewal of democratic institutions, offering Labour the chance to win power and end the divisions that have come to characterise British politics.     

弱人工智能时代的劳动价值论与劳动制度

随着弱人工智能时代的到来,物质生产与非物质生产全面自动化。这个正在生成的社会现实意味着经典劳动价值论“一切价值均来自人类劳动”的命题必须被重新思考。笔者以为,弱人工智能应被视为介于人与物之间的特殊劳动者。这样才能解释弱人工智能时代的价值创造问题。从这个角度出发,将弱人工智能视为物或工具就是一种未经反思的意识形态,其建构方向是资本原则与弱人工智能结合的永续生产模式。因此,只有强调并确立弱人工智能的劳动者地位,才能有效破除资本原则对社会发展模式的控制,将弱人工智能强大的生产能力服务于人类自由发展的目的。     

What are we gonna be when we grow up? SYRIZA's institutionalisation and its new “governing party” role

The aim of this paper is to analyse the organizational model of one of the most successful European radical left parties, the Greek Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA). Our goal is to analyse SYRIZA's organizational transition from the electoral arena to the government (2015). Our main finding is that SYRIZA started as a socially-oriented organization led by an oligarchic dominant coalition and converted itself into a political party, characterized by a prevailing role of the party in public office/party government. Both the institutional environment and the party organization's first configuration have had an impact on this change.     

Far from Home: Conservative Leadership Selection from Heath to Cameron

The Conservative Party is the oldest of the 'mainstream' British parties, but has only elected its leader since 1965. In this article, I explain the variety of methods used by the Party to select its leader and assess the impact of 'democratisation' over time. I begin by examining the informal 'system', known as the 'magic circle', which existed until 1965, and explain how and why it came to be abandoned. I then discuss the six elections between 1965 and 1997, when the Tory leader was chosen exclusively by the Party's MPs. Finally, I assess the impact of the 'Hague rules', according to which Party members have the final say, between their adoption in 1998 and the election of David Cameron in 2005.     

对高校学生党建工作的一点思考

在新形势下,作为高校党建工作重要组成部分的学生党建工作在取得成绩的同时,也面l临着一些新的变化和情况。针对新时期高校学生党建工作中存在的问题,从开展理想信念教育、入党积极分子培养方式、严把党员入口关、加大预备期考察力度、增强党支部凝聚力、党支部书记加强学习等方面进行了深入地分析,提出完善和规范高校学生党建工作的对策。     

不订立书面劳动合同应付二倍工资之诉讼时效探讨

通过分析《劳动合同法》第82条及相关法律条文的立法原意及其基本法理，可以认定“视为已订立无固定期限劳动合同”之日即是用人单位应当订立书面劳动合同的起始时间，劳动者主张二倍工资的诉讼时效从“视为已订立无固定期限劳动合同”之日起计算，也可以认定加倍支付的“工资”即为劳动报酬，诉讼时效从劳动合同终止之日起计算。这符合我国劳动立法的目的和基本价值。     

The Electoral Cycle and Multi-Level Voting in Germany

The aim of this contribution is to analyse whether Land elections may (have) become uncoupled from the federal electoral process, and, if they have, to explore the implications for party competition in Germany. Initially, an overview is presented of the relevant theoretical models that can help unpack the relationship between different electoral arenas. Secondly, how these ideas have been applied to national and sub-national electoral competition in Germany is outlined, before an examination of the 'fit' of the data in both the pre- and post-unification periods. We conclude with reflections on two key features that have regularly surfaced in Gordon Smith's writings: party system change and political stability.     

甲午启示录——朝鲜半岛篇

1894年甲午战争爆发后,朝鲜在摆脱与清王朝之间藩属关系的同时又陷入了日本侵略势力的魔掌。随着世界反法西斯战争的胜利,朝鲜终于挣脱了日本的殖民枷锁,获得了独立自主。然而,1954年日内瓦会议关于朝鲜问题的讨论无果而终,无情地宣告朝鲜半岛又进入了南北分治时代。当新的甲午年来临之际,回顾前两个甲午年朝鲜半岛的历史,总结其经验教训,将会为我们客观认识和妥善处理当前朝鲜半岛问题,避免历史悲剧的重演,提供一些有益的启示。