论日本自民党派阀政治回归的必然性

日本自民党前任总裁小泉纯一郎在其当政期间采用了一系列标新立异的政治手法,使该党传统派阀政治一时间似乎面临消亡的境地。但是,小泉刚离任不久,曾经红极一时的"小泉政治"即迅速走向终结,派阀政治随之卷土重来。究其原因,小泉政治其实只是特定时期的特殊产物,而自民党的派阀则由于建立在日本社会、历史和文化基础之上,不可能轻易消亡。不过,对于自民党来说,不管是小泉政治还是派阀政治,从根本上说一切都是为了权力。     

日本公明党与中日邦交正常化

中日邦交正常化的政治过程,是一个显示日本对外政策与国内政治相互关系的典型事例。在这一过程中,包括公明党在内的日本各在野党发挥了非常重要的独特的“补充外交”作用。特别是公明党领导人竹入义胜等非政府人士的访华,为日本政府摸清中方意图、沟通两国领导人之间的看法、形成复交文件等发挥了极为重要的作用。当然,中国政府也充分认识到日本在野党在日本政治生活中的重要作用,并积极开展对日本在野党的工作,从而推动日本执政党转变对华政策。     

台湾地区2020年“二合一”选举结果及其对政党政治的影响

论文分析2020年台湾地区“二合一”选举结果及其对政党政治的影响。根据2016年以来三次选举中不同政党得票情况的起伏变化,观察“蓝、绿”和南北政治光谱的周期性变化规律,评估政党内部因素和外部环境对岛内选举结果的短期效应和长期影响,进而展望台湾政党政治的未来发展趋势。     

Voter perceptions of parties’ left–right positions: The role of party strategies

Left–right semantics help voters simplify the complex political reality as they reduce party views on a variety of issues to a single dimension. Less studied, however, is the question of how voters arrive at parties’ left–right positions and how parties can influence voter perceptions. In this article, I demonstrate that the party can shape the voter’s understanding of the content of its left–right ideology by using three strategies: avoidance, ambivalence, or ambiguity. Specifically, the party may avoid or de-emphasize, embrace a conflicting position, or becloud its position on the controversial issue; by so doing, it induces voters to place less weight on this issue when perceiving the party’s left–right position. The empirical analysis connects voter and party data from 21 European democracies in the period 1996–2014 and finds empirical support for the effectiveness of these strategies. In particular, the study finds robust empirical evidence that strategic avoidance, ambivalence, and ambiguity strongly moderate the association between the party’s perceived ideological brand and its underlying issue content.     

Rejecting representation? Party systems and popular support for referendums in Europe

Under what conditions do citizens favor deciding political issues by popular vote? Models of support for popular vote processes usually consider the influence of individual attitudes such as political trust and interest in politics. But much less is known about the effect of institutional variables on support for popular vote processes. This article builds on research showing that disaffection with elected officials shapes support for referendums by considering the influence of the party system. First, an analysis of multilevel data from twenty-four European democracies indicates that individuals are more supportive of referendums in countries with fewer effective political parties. Second, a mediation analysis provides evidence that the number of parties influences referendum support through individual-level political trust and external efficacy. Where there are fewer viable parties, feelings that elected officials are unresponsive tend to increase popular support for referendums. These findings suggest a trade-off between available representation by political parties and support for direct influence over public policy.     

Do parties perceive their voter potentials correctly? Reconsidering the spatial logic of electoral competition

Political parties strive for maximizing their vote shares. One way to achieve this goal is to attract voters from competitors. A precondition for strategies aiming at attracting these voters is that parties perceive their voter potentials among their rivals' electorates correctly. Yet, hardly anything is known about such perceptions. To fill this gap, we develop analogue measures of a party's perceived and its actual voter potential for each competitor in a party system. Combining elite and mass surveys conducted in Germany, we show that perceived and actual voter potentials depend on spatial considerations but also that not all parties are able to correctly evaluate their potentials. These deviations can be traced back to differences in the perceived placement of political actors between elites and citizens. This supports the spatial logic of party competition but it also points to potential pitfalls for strategic behavior of political parties.     

The 2019 General Election in Northern Ireland: the Rise of the Centre Ground?

The experience of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland took a very different course to that of the rest of the UK and, indeed, to the pattern of electoral politics typical of the region. Coming after almost three years with no functioning devolved government, combined with intense disagreement and uncertainty about Brexit, voters were ready to give a message to the two largest parties. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP suffered losses in the election, with the headline outcome being that unionism no longer holds the majority of seats for Northern Ireland in Westminster. More generally, there was a swing from both sides towards centre ground voting, which brought significant gains for the Alliance Party and the SDLP. This article summarises the reasons for this broad trend, focussing on the conditions and electoral pacts which brought it about. It also considers what it might mean for the prospects for Irish unification, noting that a referendum on unification will only be passed by attracting votes from those who tend to see themselves as neither unionist or nationalist.     

Back to the Future: The Pulling Apart of our Towns and Cities

Growing divisions between Britain’s towns and cities have created a dilemma for the Labour Party in seeking to represent very different parts of the country. There are some who argue that Labour must choose the global networked youth—who largely reside in cities—in order to maximise its electoral chances. This is an argument that defies electoral gravity and fails to address the root causes of the gulf between towns and cities. As jobs and investment have gone into cities, many towns have seen the local population age and local economies become unsustainable. In both towns and cities there is a clamour for power to move closer to home and for the renewal of democratic institutions, offering Labour the chance to win power and end the divisions that have come to characterise British politics.     

工会应急协同能力评价方法研究

工会是职工群体性事件应对的重要主体之一,而应急协同能力又是决定其应急事件处理效果的一个重要因素。因此,对应急能力的评估至关重要。研究分析了职工群体性事件的动态演化过程,找出其应急协同能力影响因素,并依据协同分析方法构建了工会应急协同能力评估指标体系。研究首次提出了工会应急协同能力及表征,即基础应急协同能力、应急处置协同能力和事后恢复协同能力,并通过实例验证了该模型的合理性。据此,在社会多主体治理框架下提出了提升工会应急协同能力的基本策略。     

《劳动合同法》主要问题的经济研究评介

《劳动合同法》是继《劳动法》之后,关于改善劳动关系的重要法律文本。随着经济增长趋于平缓,关于《劳动合同法》的修订和废止问题再次引起理论界的深入讨论。文本从经济理论研究的角度对《劳动合同法》执行中关于灵活用工问题、劳动力成本和劳动生产率三个主要经济争论进行梳理和分析。研究发现,我国劳动力成本增长低于劳动生产率的提高,《劳动合同法》的实施并不会对员工工资产生显著影响,也不会显著影响劳动生产率。