Effect of History and Context on Forensic Pathologist Interpretation of Photographs of Patterned Injury of the Skin

In a previous study, a survey‐based analysis of pathologist diagnoses of patterned injury was performed. Subjects were provided with photographs of “classic” injuries and asked to diagnose the lesion in the absence of history or context. There was a relatively low diagnostic consensus among respondents. A second survey suggested that the disparate answers were not due to a strong belief in different diagnoses, but instead reflected how the respondents dealt with ambiguity. A third survey was created that asked participants to evaluate patterned injuries of the skin, but provided history and contextual information. The addition of history and contextual information increased consensus from a median of 80% to 98% on a per‐question basis. Confidence increased from a median of 56%–92%. These results demonstrate the importance of history and context in medical diagnosis of patterned injuries of the skin.     

论被害人谅解对量刑的影响

犯罪是对被害人的直接侵害,在遭受犯罪行为侵害的过程中,被害人对犯罪行为给自己带来的伤害有着切身的体会和直观的感受。法院在审理案件过程中应该听取被害人的意见,并在量刑时加以考虑。但被害人谅解是否对于法院有必然的约束力则不能一概而论。笔者从被害人谅解影响量刑的依据、限度、条件及监督保障等方面对被害人谅解与刑罚适用的关系进行了讨论,并提出只要从制度上加以规范和保障,将被害人谅解作为量刑的酌定从轻或者减轻处罚情节,是可以促进社会的和谐与稳定的。     

我国货币供应量与通货膨胀关系实证研究

近期物价上涨已成为人们普遍关心的热点问题,通货膨胀压力在进一步加大。本文选用了2007年-2010年的月度数据,对我国货币供应量M0、M1、M2与通货膨胀的关系进行研究,验证近期货币供应量与通货膨胀之间的具体关系。综合运用协整分析、因果检验以及误差修正模型来揭示我国货币供应量与通货膨胀的长期均衡及短期波动关系,结果显示,货币供应量M1、M2变化是通货膨胀率变化的重要原因。通过调整M1、M2,能够有效控制物价水平的上涨。     

“人类发展指数”（HDI）：含义、方法及改进

在林林总总的经济社会发展指标体系中,联合国的"人类发展指数"独树一帜,影响极其广泛."人类发展指数"反映了发展观和发展尺度的进步.但是10多年来计算"人类发展指数"的方法的变化,容易使人迷惑.本文探析了"人类发展指数"计算方法的重要改进,以及对解读不同年份公布指数的影响.     

How to estimate the policy preferences of party supporters: Disaggregating data from voting advice applications versus modeling survey responses

Valid and reliable estimates of the policy preferences of political parties' supporters are essential for the study of political representation. However, such estimates are not directly available from standard surveys of public opinion, which are typically representative by design only at the national level and rarely ask questions about public support for specific policies. In this article, we explore the possibility to use data from voting advice applications (VAA) to estimate the policy preferences of party supporters. To do that, first, we identify 10 questions on preferences towards issues of public policy that were asked around the same time and with similar wording in traditional surveys of public opinion and in VAAs fielded in Germany and in the Netherlands. Then we compare the VAA data disaggregated by political affiliation of the respondents to the survey data adjusted via multilevel regression modeling with poststratification (MRP). We find strong positive correlations between the estimates derived from both methods, especially after weighting the VAA data. Yet, point estimates are not always very close, and the match is sensitive to the treatment of neutral and ‘don't know’ answers. Overall, our results bode well for the validity of using VAA data in empirical research on political representation.     

Hair analysis for cocaine: factors in laboratory contamination studies and their relevance to proficiency sample preparation and hair testing practices

Since the introduction in 2001 of a urine-based detection method for recombinant erythropoietin (rHuEPO), transfusion-doping practices have regained interest. To address this problem, an efficient antidoping test designed to obtain direct proof of allogeneic blood transfusion was developed and validated. This test, based on flow cytometry analysis of red blood cell (RBCs) phenotypes, was used to determine the absence or the presence of numerous RBCs populations in a blood sample. A such, it may constitute a direct proof of an abnormal blood population resulting from homologous transfusion. Single-blind and single-site studies were carried out to validate this method as a forensic quality standard analysis and to allow objective interpretation of real cases. The analysis of 140 blood samples containing different percentages (0-5%) of a minor RBCs population were carried on by four independent analysts. Robustness, sensitivity, specificity, precision and stability were assessed. ISO-accredited controls samples were used to demonstrate that the method was robust, stable and precise. No false positive results were observed, resulting in a 100% specificity of the method. Most samples containing a 1.5% minor RBCs population were unambiguously detected, yielding a 78.1% sensitivity. These samples mimicked blood collected from an athlete 3 months after a homologous blood transfusion event where 10% of the total RBCs present in the recipient originated in the donor. The observed false negative results could be explained by differences in antigen expression between the donor and the recipient. False negatives were more numerous with smaller minor RBCs populations. The method described here fulfils the ISO-17025 accreditation and validation requirements. The controls and the methodology are solid enough to determine with certainty whether a sample contains one or more RBCs populations. This variable is currently the best indicator for homologous blood transfusion doping.     

计量经济研究实践中的数据运用误差

计量经济学方法已被广泛地应用于经济研究的各个领域,理论、方法、数据是计量经济研究的三大基本要素。综观国内大量的计量经济研究成果,我们发现不尽严密和科学之处并不少见。本文从数据运用角度,列举了计量经济研究实践中的三类偏误现象,以呼吁人们关注计量经济学研究的客观性     

Effect of Choice of Measure on the Size of a Racial Disparity

In criminological studies of racial disparities the effect of race on outcomes is assessed after statistical controls for other variables. There is no universally accepted measure of size of disparity after controls in the most common type of disparity study: the study of binary outcomes. Some such studies use a measure that lends itself to interpretation in terms of the proportional reduction in error (PRE). Most use a non-PRE measure of association. This study investigates the effect of choice of measure on conclusions about the size of a disparity after controls. For illustrative purposes the study analyzes data on the awarding of sentence reductions to drug traffickers. After controls, blacks are found to be substantially less likely than whites to receive a reduction according to a type of non-PRE measure: an odds ratio derived from a logit model. But using the same data and model, PRE measures obtained from an ROC analysis indicate that, after controls, there is hardly any difference between the races in their likelihood of sentence reduction. Results illustrate the study's thesis: that the choice of measure can powerfully affect conclusions. The findings' implications—for policymakers and for researchers who conduct racial disparity studies—are discussed.     

Self-Rated Pubertal Development,Depressive Symptoms and Delinquency: Measurement Issues and Moderation by Gender and Maltreatment

This cross-sectional study examined relationships between pubertal development, depressive symptoms and delinquency in a sample of 241 males and 213 females aged 9–13 years. Four objectives were set forth for this study: (1) to examine relationships between pubertal stage or timing and depressive symptoms and delinquency; (2) to compare continuous and categorical measures of pubertal timing; (3) to examine gender as a moderator of these relationships, and (4) to examine maltreatment as a moderator of these relationships. Results indicated that mature pubertal stage and early (continuous) pubertal timing were both related to higher delinquency whereas only early pubertal timing was related to depressive symptoms. Categorical timing was not related to depressive symptoms or delinquency. Neither gender nor maltreatment were found to be moderators. These findings provide evidence against equating pubertal stage, continuous timing, and categorical timing, and highlight the need to identify possible moderators in research on pubertal development.