从绩效测评视角看企业战略管理

企业战略管理从狭义上说就是对企业战略的制定、实施、控制和修正进行的管理。要做好企业战略管理,首先要建立好企业绩效测评体系。企业绩效测评体系能给制定战略提供所需要的资料与数据,能对战略的实施过程进行监控,能反映战略管理的结果。绩效测评体系对战略管理来说,有着重要的意义。     

Firearm examination: Examiner judgments and computer‐based comparisons

Forensic firearm examination provides the court of law with information about the source of fired cartridge cases. We assessed the validity of source decisions of a computer‐based method and of 73 firearm examiners who compared breechface and firing pin impressions of 48 comparison sets. We also compared the computer‐based method's comparison scores with the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments and assessed the validity of the latter. The true‐positive rate (sensitivity) and true‐negative rate (specificity) of the computer‐based method (for the comparison of both the breechface and firing pin impressions) were 94.4% and at least 91.7%, respectively. For the examiners, the true‐positive rate was at least 95.3% and the true‐negative rate was at least 86.2%. The validity of the source decisions improved when the evaluations of breechface and firing pin impressions were combined and for the examiners also when the perceived difficulty of the comparison decreased. The examiners were reluctant to provide source decisions for "difficult" comparisons even though their source decisions were mostly correct. The correlation between the computer‐based method's comparison scores and the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments was low for the same‐source comparisons to negligible for the different‐source comparisons. Combining the outcomes of computer‐based methods with the judgments of examiners could increase the validity of firearm examinations. The examiners' numerical degree‐of‐support judgments for their source decisions were not well‐calibrated and showed clear signs of overconfidence. We suggest studying the merits of performance feedback to calibrate these judgments.     

Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

浅谈文稿审校中的纠谬体验

对拟刊出文稿进行严格细密的审校，是保证文稿文字水平和质量的重要环节。一般字词的错误和关键词的错用、标点符号使用的疏失，词义模糊、词义扭曲、语句的任意缩略与简称、科学与文史背景知识的差错等，是不纠不可的文字瑕疵及谬误。     

儿童贫困界定和测度研究综述

科学地界定儿童贫困和建立儿童贫困测度体系是全面把握我国儿童贫困状况,制定更加科学合理的儿童减贫政策的关键。本文对国际组织和国内外研究机构如何依据贫困理论对儿童贫困进行界定,以及采取的测量方法进行了综述,同时对现有的文献进行了评述并展望了儿童贫困测量研究未来值得重视的方向和领域。     

系列性案件侦查范围半径的具体量化测量方法——几何量化测距法

在系列性案件侦查过程中，根据对侦查范围的初步推断，在地图上利用几何作图法，可以测量计算出侦查范围的半径距离，从而对整个侦查范围的区域作出量化性实际判断，可谓之“几何量化测距法”。     

刑事侦查失误的心理机制分析

刑事侦查中的失误不仅仅损害了公安机关的声誉,更为严重的是它造成了大量的刑事悬案,为社会治安留下巨大隐患。就其心理机制而言,知觉与记忆局限、直觉错误、认知偏差及群体思维等因素是导致侦查失误的根本心理原因。刑事侦查人员,特别是领导者必须在刑事侦查过程中清醒地认识到造成刑事侦查失误的各种可能原因,并有意识地加以避免,以最大限度地减少侦查失误,提高侦查效率与破案率。     

捕后案件轻刑判决率高的原因分析及对策探讨

近年来，在适用逮捕措施的案件中，存在处轻刑率较高的现象，但这并不符合刑事诉讼法所规定的逮捕措施适用条件之要求。应当采取有效对策，充分发挥批捕、检察监督等环节的作用，以抑制捕后案件轻刑判决率高这一不良现象的发生。     

有毒有害食品犯罪实践问题探究

在食品安全令人忧心忡忡的社会现实下,"量刑反制"的思路悄然而生,具体表现为在区分生产、销售有毒有害食品罪与生产、销售伪劣产品罪区分的过程中对"明知"的主观内容进行曲解。在与生产、销售不符合卫生标准的食品罪的区分过程中,由于添加物质的标准不够明晰,也导致了罪刑关系的确定性被损害,甚至有毒有害食品犯罪的关联行为被适当地确定为以危险方法危害公共安全罪。目前我国司法实践中对生产、销售有毒、有害食品罪的基本犯罪的处罚较轻是符合实际的,但对于结果和情节加重犯应当慎用死刑。     

The wisdom of crowds design for sensitive survey questions

Survey research on sensitive questions is challenging because respondents often answer untruthfully or completely refuse to answer. Existing indirect questioning techniques address the problem of social desirability bias at the expense of decreasing estimates' efficiency. We suggest the Wisdom of Crowds survey design that does not pose a tradeoff between anonymity and efficiency as an alternative. We outline the conditions necessary for the technique to work and test them empirically. Moreover, we compare the Wisdom of Crowd estimate of a right-wing populist party's vote share to alternative indirect questioning techniques' estimates as well as to the official election result in the 2017 German federal election. Provided its conditions are met, the Wisdom of Crowds design performs best in terms of both bias and efficiency. We conclude that the Wisdom of Crowds design is an important addition to social scientists' survey methodology toolbox.