Electoral Choice

ABSTRACT

The study examines the electoral psychology of voters, focusing on voters' locus of control, perceived risk, voter decision involvement and electoral control and positive affect as determinants of political satisfaction and voting stability in elections. The results indicated that locus of control influences voters' perceived risk and feelings of electoral control in elections. Further, locus of control and perceived risk influence voter decision involvement, which in turn influences perceived electoral control. Also, voter decision involvement and positive affect influence satisfaction. These, in turn, influence the propensity to vote for the same candidate or party over time (stability of voting behavior).     

论法律的经济分析的逻辑起点

逻辑起点是理论体系构建的＂阿基米德点＂,是理论体系赖以合理存在和深入发展的基础和依据。目前,法律的经济分析的逻辑起点存在的认识误区以及选择混乱,业已松动了法律的经济分析的根基。有鉴于此,对法律的经济分析的逻辑起点的正确定位不仅十分必要,而且意义深远。为此,将主流法律的经济分析的逻辑起点正确定位于理性人假设,这不仅能夯实法律的经济分析的根基,而且也因其放松对真实性的要求进而能有力地促进法律的经济分析的＂中兴＂。     

Look to Denmark or not? An experimental study of the Social Democrats’ strategic choices

Social Democratic parties struggle to maintain their strong electoral position, as political competition has shifted from the traditional left-right dimension to the cultural dimension. This has led to a debate on what would be the most viable electoral strategy for these parties in terms of adjusting their policies. Some propose a “New Left” policy platform that combines social investment and progressive cultural policies; others an “Old Left” policy platform that combines traditional redistribution policies and social-conservative cultural policies. We conducted a survey experiment to test the effects of these two platforms on support for the Norwegian Labour party. Our results show that the New Left platform is more popular among current Labour voters and voters from competing left-wing parties, and the two policy platforms are equally popular among the total electorate.     

Can wedge strategies by mainstream parties cross-cut the anti-immigration far right vote?

Anti-immigration campaigns have helped far right parties to establish themselves in party systems around the world. We examine whether mainstream parties can employ wedge issue campaigns that divide the far right anti-immigration vote to win back electoral support. Wedge issues that cross-cut the anti-immigration vote may enhance the electoral support of mainstream parties, as long as they do not simultaneously alienate pro-immigration voters. We evaluate this expectation using a panel survey experiment conducted during the 2021 German federal election. The first wave allows us to identify wedge issues that the mainstream CDU/CSU can stress to cross-cut the anti-immigration vote. The second wave raises the salience of these issues by manipulating the perceived issue agenda of the CDU/CSU using hypothetical campaign posters. While our results show that wedge issue strategies are not effective on average, exploratory analyses reveal the potential of strategically targeted messaging in winning back support of some anti-immigration voters.     

Is the party system affected by booms and busts? Not very much

The literature on party system fragmentation emphasizes how political institutions and social cleavages shape the long-term development of the party system, but short-term swings in economic performance could change the level of electoral fragmentation by affecting the concentration of the vote in the executive. Time series data from presidential elections in 59 countries and from district-level legislative election contests in 22 countries show that a growing economy is negatively associated with the effective number of parties winning votes: a strong economy leads to a slight reduction in fragmentation as the ruling party consolidates its rule while a weak economy tends to disperse votes among alternatives to it. But the effect of economic performance relative to political institutions and the incumbency advantage is at the margins. The modest size of this effect should remind scholars of the limits of the economy as an overall driver of voter choice. Keywords: Economic Voting, Party System Fragmentation, Duverger’s Hypothesis.     

假说在现场勘查中的应用

综述了假说的特征和演化过程。通过案例论述假说作为逻辑推理方法之一在现场勘查中应用于死亡方式和伪装现场等的推断常起到事半功倍的效果。从一个侧面说明,刑事技术人员的专业技术固然重要,但严密的逻辑思维同样不可缺。     

Does Election Day weather affect voter turnout? Evidence from Swedish elections

Does rainfall during the Election Day reduce voter turnout? Previous research shows that in the US one inch of rain reduces turnout with about one percentage point. We turn to the Swedish context in order to test whether rainfall on Election Day have the same impact in a high turnout context. We move beyond previous research by testing the impact of GIS-interpolated rainfall on three different datasets that allows us to view the issue both from a wide time frame as well as with high precision as for turnout measures: (a) aggregate turnout data for Sweden's 290 municipalities, (b) individual level data from the Swedish National Election Study and (c) data from a register-based survey on voter turnout. In none of the three datasets do we find robust negative effects of rain.     

民刑法中的“一般人”观念及其判断基准

民刑法的制度设计均建立在一定的人性假设之上。尽管在此问题上既有共同点也有差异,但核心之点在于,都是以"一般人"为基准进行的。因此,"一般人"之界定在民刑法中居于隐而不彰的基础地位。"一般人"标准是民刑法中人性假设理论亟待打通的"最后一公里",其本质是一般人应有的"知识与态度",也是一种方法论。该标准具有鲜明的价值取向和公共政策属性,应当根据法律责任的不同性质,确定民刑法中"一般人"的判断标准,尤其应当区分刑罚适用者、犯罪嫌疑人及被侵害者的不同视角,对刑法中的"一般人"标准进行具体判断。     

MNCV与正中神经损伤后肢体肌力变化的关系

目的初步研究运动神经传导速度(motornerveconductionvelocity,MNCV)检查相关指标与肌力(musclepower,MP)的关系,评测MNCV检查在神经损伤的法医学鉴定中的价值。方法以22例正中神经损伤病例为对象,进行MNCV和MP检查;另将22例健康受试者作为对照组,在同条件下进行检查。MNCV测定指标包括:远、近端潜伏期,远、近端波幅,MNCV值。测定前,由同一操作医师测定患者相应的MP(拇短展肌、拇短屈肌、拇指对掌肌)。结果患病组内,MP与MNCV和远近端波幅值存在显著相关性,而对照组内MP与其他指标无任何相关性;两组间对比,各项指标均存在明显差异。结论正中神经损伤后,手部相应肌肉的MP丧失程度与MNCV改变相关,并且MNCV各项指标发生显著改变。结果表明,MNCV检验可为神经损伤后MP丧失程度的法医学检查及其鉴定提供客观证据。     

Can hybrid regimes foster constituencies? Ethnic minorities in Georgian elections, 1992–2012

Do ethnic minorities in postcommunist regimes vote in systematic ways? This paper examines ethnic minority voting in Georgian elections from 1992 to 2012, examining the causes for ethnic minorities' high electoral turnout and ruling party support. Although some argue that electoral fraud is the explanatory cause, other interests, such as experience of poverty and party electoral strategy, help explain minority electoral behaviour. This paper uses statistical methods to examine electoral fraud, as well as OLS regression to investigate the role of socio-economic factors such as urban density or poverty on ethnic minority voting behaviour. The paper also draws from in-country field research to investigate the party strategies and programs in ethnic minority areas during the 2008 parliamentary election.