演化范式下中国地方政府创新可持续性研究

地方政府创新不仅是世界范围内政治经济发展的一种普遍现象和趋势,也是推动我国政治-行政改革的主要手段。本文在梳理地方政府创新相关文献、分析中国地方政府创新案例的基础上,基于演化范式对中国地方政府创新可持续性进行了理论探讨。首先,本文重新界定了地方政府创新可持续性的内涵;其次,研究了其演化路径与内容,指出了地方政府创新可持续性的四条演化路径和三个方面的内容;然后,分析了其内外部决定因素,总结出地方政府的适应性学习、"政治企业家"精神、知识累积、创新的路径依赖、多样性选择主体的内生需求、知识外溢与竞合、创新嵌套的行政文化和技术创新等八个决定因素;最后,构建了地方政府创新可持续性的分析模型。     

兵团模式：新疆兵团增进民族团结职能作用机制

兵团是增进民族团结中流砥柱。基于屯垦戍边的特殊性,兵团形成了边疆区域性、非政府特殊组织实体的增进民族团结职能作用机制,即兵团模式。兵团认同是兵团模式的核心,是实现民族国家认同、社会主义认同的中介。兵团内形成和谐的民族关系,同时推进新疆平等、团结、互助、和谐的社会主义新型民族关系的形成与完善均是兵团模式的实践结果。     

公安民警预防艾滋病职业暴露的同伴教育模式探索

公安民警是艾滋病职业暴露风险最大的一类人群,如何对其开展有效的预防艾滋病职业暴露教育是一项迫切、必要的工作。从新的视角,对公安民警预防艾滋病职业暴露同伴教育的涵义、特征、目的和优势等进行了理论研究;基于云南公安工作实际,开展了该同伴教育模式的实践探索;初步建立了公安民警预防艾滋病职业暴露同伴教育的云南模式“政工部门为主导,同伴教育者为关键,民警需求为基础,专家学者为支持,督导检查为动力”。     

Still three Wales? Social location and electoral behaviour in contemporary Wales

Wales provides a notable exception to the contemporary academic consensus that electoral behaviour is best studied via choice-based approaches. In Wales, the orthodoxy remains that of the Three-Wales Model, an approach formulated in the 1980s which saw voting behaviour as defined by class, language and national identity. This article submits the Three-Wales Model to detailed scrutiny for the first time. The model is argued to have been constructed on a very narrow theoretical basis, and on flawed measurements. Most importantly, however, the Three-Wales Model is shown to have little empirical leverage on voting behaviour in Wales – either for the period when it was formulated or for more recent elections. Factors associated with ‘valence politics’ theories are shown to provide far greater insight into voting behaviour in contemporary Wales.     

《校车安全条例(草案)》的政策议程分析——基于多源流模型的视角

校车安全问题何以进入决策者的视野是理解《校车安全条例(草案征求意见稿)》得以快速发布的关键。采用案例分析法,从多源流理论视角对校车安全的源流发展、焦点事件和政策行动者等方面进行整体分析,研究表明:校车安全政策议程是政策企业家在政策窗口开启之时推动问题、政策和政治三大源流汇合的结果。相比垃圾桶模型、触发机制模型和议程设置理论,多源流模型在本案例中更具解释力。同时,多源流模型面临中国情境,源流之间存在相关性,而非完全独立。拥有双重身份的政策企业家具有从政府机构中打开"政治窗口"的可能性,这为多源流模型的本土化应用与后续研究提供了一个可供考察的角度。最后,指出阻碍校车安全政策议程设置的主要因素包括,制度性利益表达通道不通畅、政府部门对焦点事件处理能力和水平不高、管理权限划分模糊。为此,应创建有效的制度性利益表达通道、积极关注媒体舆情,扩大问题来源、科学合理划分管理权限。这些问题及对策对于其他政策领域也具备一定的借鉴意义,这也是本研究对政策制定者的启迪所在。     

公共治理模式与经济发展——基于中国历史的经验研究

以往公共治理模式的研究,基本是在政治学与社会学的视角下,对于国家、社会与公民之间的关系研究。治理模式不仅仅是一个政治学与社会学的研究课题,更加是一个经济学与历史学的研究范畴。通过经济学与历史学的研究发现,中国历史上独特的经济特别是土地及其相关制度是影响基层治理模式的重要因素,经济发展模式与政治、社会的互动决定了中国社会公共治理模式的历史基因并对之后的治理模式持续产生影响。     

An accuracy assessment of forensic computerized facial reconstruction employing cone-beam computed tomography from live subjects

The utilization of 3D computerized systems has allowed more effective procedures for forensic facial reconstruction. Three 3D computerized facial reconstructions were produced using skull models from live adult Korean subjects to assess facial morphology prediction accuracy. The 3D skeletal and facial data were recorded from the subjects in an upright position using a cone-beam CT scanner. Shell-to-shell deviation maps were created using 3D surface comparison software, and the deviation errors between the reconstructed and target faces were measured. Results showed that 54%, 65%, and 77% of the three facial reconstruction surfaces had <2.5 mm of error when compared to the relevant target face. The average error for each reconstruction was -0.46 mm (SD = 2.81) for A, -0.31 mm (SD = 2.40) for B, and -0.49 mm (SD = 2.16) for C. The facial features of the reconstructions demonstrated good levels of accuracy compared to the target faces.     

Accuracy of Three Age Estimation Methods in Children by Measurements of Developing Teeth and Carpals and Epiphyses of the Ulna and Radius

Abstract: The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of three methods for age estimation in children: the measurements of open apices in tooth roots (T), the ratio between the total area of carpal bones and epiphyses of the ulna and radius (HW), and the combined method (THW). The sample consisted of 288 Caucasian Italian children (152 boys and 136 girls) aged between 5 and 15 years. Accuracy was determined as the difference between estimated age and chronological age, and accuracy was assessed by analyzing individuals’ orthopantomograms and hand‐wrist radiographs. Accuracies were 0.41 years for girls and 0.54 years for boys with the THW method; for the HW method, 1.00 years for girls and 0.92 years for boys; and for the T method, 0.62 years for girls and 0.71 years for boys. THW is the most accurate technique for age estimation in these children.     

日本FTA战略的困惑

随着国内外环境的变化,日本开始逐渐放弃一贯坚持的多边自由贸易立场,转向FTA战略。但日本FTA战略的起步带有明显的被动性,这一点也反映在其FTA战略的具体动机上。日本推行的EPA模式也为其战略的实施带来了诸多困难。日本的FTA战略的走向不仅会对自身今后的发展产生重要影响,而且还将显著影响东亚区域合作的进程和走向。     

关于Simons Model实际操作的思考

本文针对Simons Model的实际操作提出几点注意事项,主要表现在人员培训、调查方式和场所选定、敏感性问题所占比例以及样本容量的确定等方面,对实际操作的开展有一定的借鉴意义。