The effects of base rate and cutoff point choice on commonly used measures of association and accuracy in recidivism research

Several measures of association and accuracy commonly used in the recidivism literature are examined for their sensitivity to variations in the proportion observed to recidivate (the base rate) and in the proportion selected for classification as recidivists (selection ratio). Logistic regression models are employed on a sample of 11,749 convicted offenders to generate predicted probabilities of four recidivism criteria varying in base rates from 0.06 to 0.48. Cutoff point selections from 0.1 to 0.9 show the effects of cutoff point changes on the following commonly used measures of association and accuracy: RIOC (relative improvement over chance), MCR (mean cost rating), Φ, γ, PRE (proportion reduction in error), and percentage correct. While all these statistics vary across base rate and cutoff points, some vary more than others: RIOC varies across cutoff points more than MCR, MCR more than Φ, and Φ more than γ. Researchers comparing such statistics across studies need be wary of the dangers of ignoring such variation.     

Liberal family law in the making: Nordic and European harmonisation

This paper discusses the past and contemporary legal harmonisation exercises of family law in the Nordic countries and Europe. The critique is that the harmonised ‹European family law’ only entrenches the status quo and reiterates traditional family patterns, the male norm, heteronormativity, and a public/private divide represented in the neutral guise of a liberal rights discourse. Furthermore, the critics point out that the political economy of legal harmonisation is, to a large extent, ignored. In the Nordic countries, egalitarianism and broad political deliberation characterised much of the previous legal harmonisation, whereas rights discourse in its liberal sense is a novelty, more or less triggered by the European integration. This paper discusses the gendered implications of the emerging rights discourse in the Nordic countries and the linkages between family law, the labour market and social welfare. The paper argues that the harmonisation exercise cannot be regarded as one consisting only of legal norms and reasoning, but rather it should be discussed from the perspective of a political and epistemological challenge to the prevailing ‹truths’ about marriage, family and sexuality.     

论法律文书语言的准确性

法律文书要求语言准确,是由写作本质和其作为执法工具所决定的。探讨和追求法律文书语言的准确性应从语言运用符合实际,用语符合语法逻辑,用语不产生歧义等方面加强研究和学习。要正确理解法律文书的语言准确,还要处理好语言准确和模糊语言的关系,法律文书语言准确和文学语言准确的差异性。     

美国模范刑法典导论

美国法学会1962年通过的《模范刑法典》在美国刑法法典化的历史中发挥了最重要的作用。自颁布至今,该法典一直是美国刑法典改革的主导力量,也是美国刑法学研究的催化剂。该法典内容上包括总则、具体犯罪的规定、处遇和矫正、矫正组织四编,总体上采用了“原则性实用主义”的进路。该法典的创新之处体现在:全面的总则、分析性的结构、充分界定犯罪、使用限定的术语、法典条款的解释体系、犯罪体系,以及某些具体规则的创新,如犯罪要件、不完整犯罪和同谋犯、正当事由、免责事由等。     

探索和建立交通管理"责任区"勤务模式

随着上海社会经济的快速发展和交通流量的迅猛增长,原有的交通勤务管理模式已显得较为滞后,建立新的勤务模式已非常迫切。为了实现道路交通“安全、畅通、有序”这一总体目标,上海公安交通管理部门探索出一种行之有效的“责任区”勤务管理模式。     

Validation of an Abbreviated Version of the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms in Outpatient Psychiatric and Community Settings

This study examined the effectiveness of an abbreviated version of the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms (SIRS-A) in identifying malingered mental illness. The SIRS-A is comprised of 69 items drawn from the SIRS (R. Rogers et al. 1992, SIRS: Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms: Professional Manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources, Inc.), substantially reducing the administration time. A simulation design was used with three samples; 87 psychiatric outpatients who responded honestly were compared to 29 community-dwelling adults and 24 psychiatric patients instructed to malinger psychopathology. The SIRS-A generated sensitivity comparable to or exceeding that of the SIRS normative data, but specificity was poorer; many genuinely impaired patients were misclassified as malingering. Although these findings suggest the SIRS-A may be an effective means to assess malingering in psychiatric populations, further research assessing the reasons for the elevated false positive rates is necessary.     

论量刑精确制导

我国《刑法》第5条既是刑法的基本原则,也是量刑公正的一般标准,它要求量刑精确制导,最大限度地避免刑罚误差。实现量刑精确制导的根本出路是理论创新和方法创新,这主要表现在三个方面:(1)依法构建量刑标尺,将法定刑空间划分为200个刻度,把其中各种刑罚折算或者虚拟为有期徒刑的月数,明确1个刻度所体现的不同性质刑罚的度量,用以计算刑罚的轻重程度;(2)在正确定罪并找准法定刑的前提下,理性评价犯罪人具有的量刑情节,将其所反映的社会危害程度和人身危险程度用一定数值(积分)表示,借以计算行为人罪责的大小程度;(3)将量刑情节的轻重积分与量刑空间的轻重刻度按"1∶1"的标准相对应,前者在相应量刑空间中的读数,便是量刑公正的最佳适度。     

“包容性增长”刍议

从历史发展、现实环境、未来要求、国际背景上看，倡导包容性增长具有客观必然性和现实紧迫性。公正性增长、和谐共生增长、共享式增长是理解包容性增长的重要要素。践行包容性增长核心在于转变经济发展方式，重点在于深化收入分配体制改革，难点在于经济社会协调可持续发展，根本在于开发人力资本和实施充分就业，国际责任在于实施投资和贸易自由化。     

基于地区形势认识模式，东北亚地区合作应对核灾难

具有地缘政治学上特殊关系的韩中日三国，在核安全及应对核灾难时，不该仅仅从本国利益出发，而应该从区域公共财产的层面考虑问题。福岛核辐射事件呼吁三国加强区域合作的紧急需要。应对核灾难的东北亚地区合作，不是仅从简单的多变合作关系框架出发，而是为了保证作为地区公共财产安全的核安全，作为地区形势认识模式，提出了系统而具体的核灾难应对模式，提出了将制度性框架和具体合作方案进行系统联结的理论模式。基于Endsely的地区形势认识模式，地区形势认识模式由认识-理解-预测这三个阶段组成。在实践层面，地区形势认识模式可以被应用为建设系统而具体的东北亚应对核灾难的合作机制。为了构筑基于地区形势认识的东北亚合作体系，首先要在保证三国合作连续性的政治意志，其实要设定围绕地区合作方向性的竞争结构及与其他地区的关系，最后，为确保三国合作的有效性，有必要设立更加具体而有约束力的制度措施。     

论香港与内地移交逃犯的先例模式

香港与内地在逃犯移交问题上长期处于无法可依且不对等的状态。先例模式从两地移交逃犯的现状出发,将遵循先例原则引入移交逃犯模式的构建中,以个案协商为基础,并赋予协商结果以先例效力。先例模式利用现有法律,实现事实移交。它是一个过渡的模式,为两地最终签订双边协议创造条件。先例模式的内容主要包括三个方面:先例的确立机制、先例的适用机制和谈判主体的构建。