Probabilistic expert systems for handling artifacts in complex DNA mixtures

This paper presents a coherent probabilistic framework for taking account of allelic dropout, stutter bands and silent alleles when interpreting STR DNA profiles from a mixture sample using peak size information arising from a PCR analysis. This information can be exploited for evaluating the evidential strength for a hypothesis that DNA from a particular person is present in the mixture. It extends an earlier Bayesian network approach that ignored such artifacts. We illustrate the use of the extended network on a published casework example.     

The continued salience of religious voting in the United States, Germany, and Great Britain

Conventional wisdom on party systems in advanced industrial democracies holds that modern electorates are dealigned and that social cleavages no longer structure party politics. Recent work on class cleavages has challenged this stylized fact. The analysis performed here extends this criticism to the religious-secular cleavage. Using path analysis and comparing the current electorates of the United States, Germany, and Great Britain with the early 1960s, this paper demonstrates that the religious-secular cleavage remains or has become a significant predictor of conservative vote choice. While the effects of the religious-secular cleavage on vote choice have become largely indirect, the total of the direct and indirect effects is substantial and equivalent to the effects of class and status.     

Advising Ministers – The Special Problem of Defence

Successive Australian Defence Ministers have been frustrated and occasionally embarrassed by the quality of advice and information provided to them by the Defence organisation. Decades of reviews and reorganisations have failed to find solutions to the special difficulties that Defence faces in providing accurate, timely information and advice to ministers across the broad spectrum of their responsibilities. This article argues that there are multiple explanations for the concerns that are frequently expressed about its policy advisory capacity – most of which are inherent to Defence organisations around the world. While the Defence culture of secrecy is partly responsible, other factors such as the scale of Defence's operations, the multiple cultures that exist within it (military, civilian, and intelligence) that make coherence harder than in more homogenous departments, the long‐time horizons of defence planning as well as the high costs of procurement, must also be considered. The erosion of trust between the organisation and minister has been exacerbated by the intense scrutiny of the media that overburdens ministers and adds another layer of complexity to their role. As history shows, there are push and pull factors that continue to embroil ministers in the minutiae of defence difficulties, while the complexity and scale of operations will undoubtedly continue to impact on the timeliness of advice.     

Coalition formation and polarisation

Party ideology plays an important role in determining which government coalitions form. Research on coalition formation tends to focus on the ideological distance between coalition parties. However, the distribution of preferences within the coalition, and the legislature, also has implications for which government coalition forms – that is, a party's willingness to join a coalition depends not only on its prospective coalition partners, but also on the alternative coalitions it could form. Several hypotheses about the effects of legislative polarisation are offered and tested using data on coalition formation in 17 parliamentary democracies in the postwar period. This article also demonstrates how the traditional measure of ideological divisions within coalitions fails to capture certain aspects of ideological heterogeneity within the cabinet (and the opposition) and how Esteban and Ray's polarisation index helps in addressing these deficiencies.     

揭开中国土地私有化论的面纱

当前土地私有化的论调声势浩大,其中大部分来自经济学和社会学领域。土地制度是一个国家社会制度和法律制度的基础,作为法学尤其是民法学者应当作出自己独立的判断。土地私有化论者从未对现行土地制度作过理性的研究,所谓中国土地私有化的好处全部来自于想象和虚构,中国土地私有化是一个对中华民族极不负责的闹剧。     

Web Content Management Systems: An Analysis of Forensic Investigatory Challenges

With an increase in the creation and maintenance of personal websites, web content management systems are now frequently utilized. Such systems offer a low cost and simple solution for those seeking to develop an online presence, and subsequently, a platform from which reported defamatory content, abuse, and copyright infringement has been witnessed. This article provides an introductory forensic analysis of the three current most popular web content management systems available, WordPress, Drupal, and Joomla! Test platforms have been created, and their site structures have been examined to provide guidance for forensic practitioners facing investigations of this type. Result's document available metadata for establishing site ownership, user interactions, and stored content following analysis of artifacts including Wordpress's wp_users, and wp_comments tables, Drupal's “watchdog” records, and Joomla!'s _users, and _content tables. Finally, investigatory limitations documenting the difficulties of investigating WCMS usage are noted, and analysis recommendations are offered.     

Views on workplace culture and climate: through the lens of retention and Title IV-E participation

ABSTRACT

Retention of public child welfare (PCW) workers is the focus of much scholarly research. Examinations of the topic have ranged from assessments of workers’ background to job factors and attitudinal components about the workplace. Unlike most studies, the present study uses agency administrative data on retention. In it, 502 PCW workers responded to a point-in-time survey covering a wide range of topics including job satisfaction, commitment to child welfare, perceptions of culture and climate, Title IV-E status, and demographic variables. While Title IV-Es were more likely to leave the agency, several significant interactions between Title IV-E and retention status showed that Title IV-Es who left the agency had significantly lower supervisor satisfaction and influence than Title IV-Es who stayed; and lower efficacy scores than non-Title IV-Es who left. No such differences were found for non-Title IV-E stayers and leavers. Implications for these differences for county agencies and universities are discussed.     

Building sustainable free legal advisory systems: Experiences from the history of AI & law

The enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) as a source of solutions to problems is not new. In law, from the early 1980s until at least the early 2000s, considerable work was done on developing ‘legal expert systems.’ As the DataLex project, we participated in those developments, through research and publications, commercial and non-commercial systems, and teaching students application development. This paper commences with a brief account of that work to situate our perspective.The main aim of this paper is an assessment of what might be of value from the experience of the DataLex Project to contemporary use of ‘AI and law’ by free legal advice services, who must necessarily work within funding and other constraints in developing and sustaining such systems. We draw fifteen conclusions from this experience, which we consider are relevant to development of systems for free legal advice services. The desired result, we argue, is the development of integrated legal decision-support systems, not ‘expert systems’ or ‘robot lawyers’. We compare our insights with the approach of the leading recent text in the field, and with a critical review of the field over twenty-five years. We conclude that the approach taken by the DataLex Project, and now applied to free legal advice services, remains consistent with leading work in field of AI and law.The paper concludes with brief suggestions of what are the most desirable improvements to tools and platforms to enable development of free legal advice systems. The objectives of free access to legal information services have much in common with those of free legal advice services. The information resources that free access to law providers (including LIIs) can provide will often be those that free legal advice services will need to use to develop and sustain free legal advisory systems. There is therefore strong potential for valuable collaborations between these two types of services providers.     

大力推进惩防腐败体系建设——基于山西省晋城市的实践

坚决惩治和有效预防腐败,关系人心向背和党的生死存亡。晋城市近年来惩防体系建设取得了一定的成效,教育防范重点突出,制度建设不断创新,监督制约形成机制,改革推动坚定有力,纠风矫正成效明显,惩治追究形成合力,科技防腐积极探索。但惩防体系建设目前还面临许多制约因素,反腐倡廉教育形式单一,失之于“弱”,制度落实执行难度大,失之于“虚”,监督渠道不畅缺乏手段,失之于“软”,领导干部作风建设问题突出,失之于“律”。为进一步加强惩防体系建设,必须强化反腐倡廉教育,增强教育效果;加强制度执行力,注重制度创新;改革和完善监督体制,拓宽监督渠道;继续利用科技手段,加强网络反腐。     

阳虚质和阴虚质特征比较研究

阳虚质、阴虚质是相互联系又相互对立的两种基本体质类型,两者在形态结构、生理功能、心理特点和反应状态4个方面具有差异性。这两种体质类型以"虚"为共同特点,表现为生理功能的低下、适应能力的减弱等,在此基础上,又表现出寒与热、静与动的对立特征。