Washington's perceptions and misperceptions of Beijing's anti-access area-denial (A2-AD) ‘strategy’: implications for military escalation control and strategic stability

Washington has become increasingly concerned that Beijing's anti-access area-denial (A2-AD) capabilities will put at risk US military assets and forward forces operating in the Western Pacific region, enabling China to deter, delay and deny US intervention in future regional conflict and crisis. US defence analysts in their assessments have frequently, and often erroneously, conflated a Chinese operational capability with an underlying strategic intention that conceptualises the United States as its primary (if not sole) target. The central argument this article proffers is that US perceptions of A2-AD have been framed by specific analytical baselines that have overlooked the evolution of Chinese operational and doctrinal preferences, and over-reliant upon military material-based assessments to determine Beijing's strategic intentions, and formulate US military countervails. The article concludes that the strategic ambiguities and opacity associated with Chinese A2-AD capabilities and its ‘active defence’ concept reinforced Washington's reliance upon capacity-based assessments that in turn, exacerbated misperceptions confounded by cognitive bias of Chinese strategic intentions. The critical framing assumptions of this article draw heavily upon the ideas and rationale associated with the international relations ‘Security Dilemma’ concept.     

The Progressive Dilemma Revisited

In his book of the same title, David Marquand identified the progressive dilemma faced by many intellectuals since the beginning of the twentieth century as a question of whether it was better to work through a political party or through civil society to achieve reform. This dilemma was sharpened by the emergence of the Labour party as the main challenger to the Conservatives, because the party was so closely identified with the defence of a particular interest. This hindered the creation of the kind of broad electoral coalition that could win general elections. Throughout most of its history, Labour has failed to realise its promise and sustain reforming governments. In this article, the history of the Labour party over the past hundred years is outlined, in particular the three cycles 1931–51, 1951–79 and 1979–2010 and the divisions and recriminations that have followed each period in government. The current predicament of the party is then briefly assessed.     

刑事司法视角下的国民预测可能性

作为刑法的精神内核,罪刑法定内含预测可能性原理,意图通过明文规定的犯罪与刑罚,克己守法的法官运用形式思维严格适用法律,使民众事先能够预测自己的行为性质,保障行动的自由.然而预测可能性原理实现前提的假设被证伪,刑法规范的模糊性与法律概念的类型化,使得法官适用法律时必然适当能动.同时,法官的法律思维与民众的日常思维存在较大...     

浅谈治安调解的策略与艺术

治安案件调解是公安机关贯彻治安管理处罚法确立的“教育与处罚相结合”原则的具体体现。对于缩小治安管理处罚的处罚面,以平和的方式解决人民内部矛盾,避免矛盾激化,促成人际关系的和谐,维护社会治安秩序的稳定,构建和谐社会,具有独特的功能和作用。本文从剖析当前治安调解的困境及存在的突出问题入手,对治安调解的策略与艺术进行深入探讨,对于公安机关更为有效地开展治安调解,缓解纠纷,消除矛盾,促进警民关系,维护公安机关的执法形象具有一定的启迪作用。     

高等师范教育发展中的学科教学论

高等师范教育在师范教育重组重构,综合大学试办教育学院的新形势下,遇到了严峻的困境和发展机遇,它必须寻求新的生长点。如何能把握自身优势积极发展教育硕士专业学位教育,如何能理智地明确学科归属,实现资源共享,提升学科实力,如何能重视建构学科体系,锻造学术队伍,开辟实践基地,学科教学论必将获得自身的突破性发展,并对高师教育发展做出重大贡献。     

农村私有房屋交易法律困境及其解决思路

农村私有房屋买卖的法律困境突出表现是买卖合同效力认定问题和买卖合同登记问题。从农村现实出发考虑“三农”问题,应当尽快确立农村私有房产交易的制度安排;从宪法与人权角度来看,财产权是人类谋求生存与发展的基本权利,应当尽快建立并完善农村私有房产交易的立法安排;对宅基地上住房的出售采取放开政策,应当尽快设计出农村私有房产交易的法定办法及程序。     

启蒙精神的高度与限度--试论理性悲剧《浮士德》的启示意义

作为一部人类灵魂与时代精神的发展史,《浮士德》既是对"浮士德精神"的颂歌,也是对浮士德式追求的反思;既是对人的自信,也是对人的怀疑;既是对现实生活的肯定,更是对理想生活的呼唤。     

行政管理专业案例教学的困境与突破

案例教学符合加强实践教学、实施素质教育的指导思想,符合行政管理专业由学术型向应用型转变的发展趋势,对于激发学生学习的积极性和自主性、培养学生的认知能力和实践能力具有重要作用。但在教学实践中,认识上的误区和本土案例的匮乏成为行政管理专业案例教学的两大制约因素,全面认识案例教学的性质与特点、强化本土案例的搜集和编写是突破困境的必然选择。     

服务型政府视阈下行政文化的困境与破解

我国传统与现行行政文化中的消极因素影响和阻滞着服务型政府目标的实现。分析传统与现行的行政文化弊端及其困境，并且进行破解与超越，从而培育和发展积极的行政文化。     

社区矫正刑本土化合理性探讨

20世纪以来，世界各国都在不断地进行刑罚制度的改革和创新，社区娇正就是在这样的背景下诞生的一种全新的行刑方式。社区矫正之所以能在现代社会被西方国家普遍接受和采纳，是因为其背后包含了若干深层合理的基础理论，蕴涵着人道和效益的价值理念。社区矫正制度在减少监禁刑适用、促进罪犯社会化和降低行刑成本等方面发挥着异乎寻常的作用。它对进一步健全和完善我国的刑罚制度和罪犯处遏制度，对完善我国刑事制度将是大有裨益的。