假日旅游效应分析

假日旅游具有拉动国内消费、提高旅游业总体管理水平、带动相关行业发展等正面效应，同时也存在着破坏自然资源、旅游资源等负面效应。因此，旅游管理部门应遵循自然规律，控制环境容量；利用市场机制，调节客流量，从而把假日旅游变成一种长效机制，推动国民经济的发展。     

Vota por tu Futuro: Partisan Mobilization of Latino Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election

Over the past two presidential elections, the major parties have been making a push at appealing to Latinos, airing over 3000 political advertisements in Spanish in the 2000 presidential election. In this paper, we ask whether the political ads used in the 2000 election had any effect on Latino turnout. We argue that the effectiveness of ads on the likelihood of turnout depends on how targeted the ad is to Latinos and the individual’s process of acculturation. We test our hypotheses using data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group, merged with data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey. We find that the effectiveness of the ads on the likelihood of turnout was mediated by the individual’s dominant language, which is taken as a proxy for the process of acculturation.

Interoperator test for anatomical annotation of earprints

As part of the Forensic Ear Identification (FearID) research project, which aims to obtain estimators for the strength of evidence of earmarks found on crime scenes, a large database of earprints (over 1200 donors) has been collected. Starting from a knowledge-based approach where experts add anatomical annotations of minutiae and landmarks present in prints, comparison of pairs of prints is done using the method of Vector Template Matching (VTM). As the annotation process is subjective, a validation experiment was performed to study its stability. Comparing prints on the basis of VTM, it appears that there are interoperator effects, individual operators yielding significantly more consistent results when annotating prints than different operators. The operators being well trained and educated, the observed variation on both clicking frequency and choice of annotation points suggests that implementation of the above is not the best way to go about objectifying earprint comparison. Processes like the above are relevant for any forensic science dealing with identification (e.g., of glass, tool marks, fibers, faces, fingers, handwriting, speakers) where manual (nonautomated) processes play a role. In these cases, results may be operator dependent and the dependencies need to be studied.     

Improving impact evaluations through randomised experiments: The challenge of the National Research Council report for European criminology

The National Research Council (NRC) report on Improving Evaluation of Anticrime Programs presents and discusses a wide array of techniques of evaluation. Although recognising the very high internal validity of randomised experiments, it considers, under certain conditions, quasi-experiments and observational studies as equally valid approaches. This conclusion is critically reviewed from a European perspective, where only a few randomised trials have been realised so far. It is argued that many critiques routinely addressed to randomised experiments, such as ethical concerns or low acceptance among practitioners, are either unfounded or can be adequately dealt with through imaginative adjustments. On the other hand, randomised controlled trials need to take the challenge of broadening the perspective, especially by looking at long-term effects that no other method can consider with comparable internal validity. Other recommendations include using innovative measures of re-offending, considering dynamic rather than static criteria of re-offending, and looking, beyond re-offending, at rehabilitation in other areas of life. Particular challenges are the possible placebo effects that evaluators in criminal justice have not yet found appropriate ways to deal with.

Registrants,Voters, and Turnout Variability Across Neighborhoods

Although political participation has received wide-ranging scholarly attention, little is known for certain about the effects of social and political context on turnout. A scattered set of analyses—well-known by both political scientists and campaign consultants—suggests that ones neighborhood has a relatively minor impact on the decision to vote. These analyses, however, typically rely upon data from a single location. Drawing on official lists of registered voters from sixteen major counties across seven states (including Florida) from the 2000 presidential election, we use geographic/mapping information and hierarchical models to obtain a more accurate picture of how neighborhood characteristics affect participation, especially among partisans. Our research shows that neighborhoods influence voting by interacting with partisan affiliation to dampen turnout among voters we might otherwise expect to participate. Most notably, we find Republican partisans in enemy territory tend to vote less than expected, even after accounting for socioeconomic status. Our findings have implications for campaign strategy, and lead us to suggest that campaign targeting efforts could be improved by an integration of aggregate- and individual-level information about voters.     

台商大陆投资对两岸关系发展的推动效应

台商大陆投资在两岸关系发展中扮演着特殊的角色,它在客观上提升了两岸贸易的依存度,推动了两岸人员往来与两岸航运的发展,以及两岸其他方面的交流。台商大陆投资创造了两岸关系稳定发展和交往沟通的有利条件,造就了两岸经济互补互利、共同繁荣的双赢局面。     

公安院校教师人格魅力及其影响

素质教育关键在教师,教师的综合素质集中表现在教师的人格魅力上。公安院校教师人格魅力主要体现在政治上的坚定性,忠诚公安教育事业,渊博的知识,关爱学生等几个方面。教师要加强政治理论和道德修养,与时俱进,不断拓宽自己的知识面,当学生的良师益友,与学生平等交流,从而以人格魅力去影响和教育学生。     

Long-Term Effects of Witnessing Marital Violence for Women: The Contribution of Childhood Physical and Sexual Abuse

A sample of 313 college women completed a questionnaire about experiences with violence in childhood and adulthood and adult adjustment and relationship functioning. Nine percent of the women reported having witnessed some type of physical conflict between their parents. Witnessing marital violence was associated with other family mental health risks, childhood physical and sexual abuse, and adult physical assaults by strangers. Women who witnessed marital violence reported more symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder than other women, after family background and abuse variables were accounted for. Significant interactions between witnessing marital violence and childhood physical abuse were observed for measures of social avoidance and predictability in partner relationships, indicating that the effects of witnessing marital violence depended on the presence of childhood abuse. Implications of these results for research and interventions are discussed.     

误证中的记忆错误现象

证人的证言是证据的一个重要成分,在审判中起着重要作用。证人证言中的一个重要问题是证言的可靠性问题,即证人的证言是否属实,是否是对案件的真实描述。造成误证的原因很多,除了证人作证的各种动机等主观原因外,还有许多是由记忆机制这一客观原因造成的,这一情况是不容忽视的。本文将对由记忆机制导致的记忆错误做一些初步概述,并对如何避免记忆错误出现和如何唤起证人的真实记忆做一些初步探讨。     

从四个效应看正规化建设的地位和作用

保定市公安局开展正规化建设所产生的“四个效应”有机联系,相互作用,充分体现了正规化建设在公安工作中的领航地位和主导功能。