Any Publicity or Good Publicity? A Competitive Test of Visibility- and Tonality-Based Media Effects on Voting Behavior

When examining media effects on voting intentions, scholars of political communication have either focused on visibility- or tonality-based effects. Our study compares these effect models, asking whether the explanations are complementary or competitive; it goes beyond previous studies by considering interactions between media cues and voters’ attitudes. We draw on panel survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) that is combined with content analysis data of the main evening news broadcast in Germany. Findings show that visibility- and tonality-based effects are similar in potency, but tone-based effects are more contingent on attitudes toward parties and candidates. Both types of cues can backfire: higher visibility and more positive tonality can have negative effects on some attitude groups, which is in part moderated by the expectations about government coalitions. We find that visibility and tonality are rather complementary cues that both influence voting behavior. Implications are discussed.     

News Media Use and Political Engagement Among Adolescents: An Analysis of Virtuous Circles Using Panel Data

This study analyzes reinforcing spirals between news media use and two manifestations of political engagement: political interest and participation intention. Drawing on a three-wave panel study among adolescents, we test the Virtuous Circle Thesis (VCT) in both an online and an offline setting, by distinguishing between selection effects and media effects as key ingredients of the VCT. Overall, the findings lend mixed support to the general argument. While the relationship between specific forms of news media use and political interest appears to be driven primarily by selection effects, reciprocal relations were found mainly between television news and participation intention. The VCT assumption of reciprocal influences was supported most clearly when adolescents’ total news media use was considered. Taken together, virtuous circles appeared to operate rather similarly online and offline.     

从四个效应看正规化建设的地位和作用

保定市公安局开展正规化建设所产生的“四个效应”有机联系,相互作用,充分体现了正规化建设在公安工作中的领航地位和主导功能。     

Locking up my generation: Cohort differences in prison spells over the life course

Crime rates have dropped substantially in the United States, but incarceration rates have remained high. The standard explanation for the lasting trend in incarceration is that the policy choices from the 1980s and 1990s were part of a secular increase in punitiveness that has kept rates of incarceration high. Our study highlights a heretofore overlooked perspective: that the crime–punishment wave in the 1980s and 1990s created cohort differences in incarceration over the life course that changed the level of incarceration even decades after the wave. With individual-level longitudinal sentencing data from 1972 to 2016 in North Carolina, we show that cohort effects—the lingering impacts of having reached young adulthood at particular times in the history of crime and punishment—are at least as large (and likely much larger) than annual variation in incarceration rates attributable to period-specific events and proclivities. The birth cohorts that reach prime age of crime during the 1980s and 1990s crime–punishment wave have elevated rates of incarceration throughout their observed life course. The key mechanism for their elevated incarceration rates decades after the crime–punishment wave is the accumulation of extended criminal history under a sentencing structure that systematically escalates punishment for those with priors.     

The death of conservative Ireland? The 2018 abortion referendum

The outcomes of two recent Irish referendums - on marriage equality in 2015 and abortion in 2018 - have placed contemporary Irish voters in sharp contrast with their long-standing conservative Catholic reputation. These referendums also stand out internationally because of an associated deliberative innovation. This paper aims to explain the watershed abortion vote drawing on theories of generational change, issue-voting, cue-taking and deliberative democracy, using data from an exit poll at the 2018 abortion referendum. We show that cleavage and age effects are key to understanding the referendum outcome. These results offer insight into how societal processes such as rapid secularisation, generational replacement and democratic innovations shape politics. Moreover, voters who were aware of the deliberative innovation were more likely to support the liberal referendum option. To increase willingness to deviate from the status quo, engaging citizens actively in the debate is a fruitful approach.     

ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR AND YOUTH GANG MEMBERSHIP: SELECTION AND SOCIALIZATION

We examine whether gang membership is associated with higher levels of delinquency because boys predisposed to delinquent activity are more likely than others to join. We use 10 years of longitudinal data from 858 participants of the Pittsburgh Youth Study to identify periods before, during and after gang membership. We build on prior research by controlling for ages and calendar time, by better accounting for gang memberships that occurred before the study began, and by using fixed effects statistical models. We find more evidence than has been found in prior studies that boys who join gangs are more delinquent before entering the gang than those who do not join. Even with such selective differences, however, we replicate research showing that drug selling, drug use, violent behaviors and vandalism of property increase significantly when a youth joins a gang. The delinquency of peers appears to be one mechanism of socialization. These findings are clearest in youth self-reports, but are also evident in reports from parents and teachers on boys' behavior and delinquency. Once we adjust for time trends, we find that the increase in delinquency is temporary, that delinquency falls to pre-gang levels when boys leave gangs.     

Race and the probability of pleading guilty

The legal ramifications of pleading guilty and findings of an interdependence between pleading guilty and sentence severity suggest that the guilty plea decision is a significent turning point in case processing. The present research examines the variables affecting the probability of pleading guilty. The first analysis involves estimating a single probit equation of main effects of variables previously found to be related to pleading guilty. A second analysis is conducted estimating the same equation separately for black defendants and white defendants. Findings from the first part of the analysis indicate that physical evidence, number of charges, and confessing to the crime during police/prosecutor interrogation increase the probability of pleading guilty, whereas the number of witnesses, use of a weapon, and offenses carrying a minimum penalty of 5 years in custody with no maximum prison term decrease the probability of pleading guilty. Findings from the second analysis indicate that the effect of marital status, prior record of felony convictions, type of counsel, number of charges, and use of a weapon on the probability of pleading guilty varies by defendant's race. The research concludes by offering several competing explanations of these findings in hope of stimulating further research on the variables affecting the route of case disposition in felony processing.     

实践意识·制度结构·权力资源--从结构化理论看思想政治工作有效性问题

结构化理论是社会学中揭示个人行为与社会系统互动关系的重要理论之一.其中实践意识、结构性制约和权力资源配置的论述,对于我们进一步探寻教育者、受教育者、制度等思想政治工作变量间的内在联系,深入探讨如何增强思想政治工作有效性有着重要的启示作用.这表现在整合官兵的实践意识,为增强军队思想政治工作有效性提供坚实的思想基础;优化制度结构,为增强有效性提供科学的制度保障;合理运用权力资源,为增强有效性提供有力的权威支持.     

略论产业集群的集聚效应对民营经济发展的推动——以福建部分产业集群为例

企业在集群区域所产生的集聚效应,有利于提升以产业集群为支撑的民营经济的整体竞争力,其表现出来的是一种比所有单个企业竞争力简单叠加起来更具优势的全新的集群竞争力。集聚效应对民营经济的发展起到了至关重要的推动作用。     

Trade and the environment in North America

Environmental assessments of trade agreements remain in its infancy, and demonstrate that trade in itself will not green our economies. By examining various aspects of the environmental effects of trade in North America, this special issue not only contributes to deepening our understanding of the key issues in the trade and environment debate, but also helps to formulate mutually supportive trade and environmental policies.