The Arab Spring and the European Response

Europeans enthusiastically embraced the Arab Spring. However, the EU and its member states have lacked significant influence in a neighbouring region in turmoil. The EU has not devised new and more appropriate approaches towards the region, but rather relied on its traditional tools and frameworks. The Eurozone’s financial crisis and threat perceptions have quickly underminded the readiness of EU member states to contribute meaningfully to Arab transformations with money, market access and mobility. In addition, European support has not been equally welcomed across the region, and delays in terms of building empowered governments have prevented a quick impact. Moreover, the violent power struggles triggered by the Arab Spring have revealed the EU’s weakness with regard to effective conflict prevention and timely crisis management – and thus created an environment averse to democratic transformation and regional stabilisation.     

高校辅导员自我效能感调节与职业倦怠关系研究

自我效能感的原理是借助个体自我调节,能够积极地转变现状的理论.提升辅导员自我效能感,是清除和缓解辅导员职业倦怠的有效策略.文章通过对高校辅导员自我效能感同职业倦怠相互关系的探讨,由自我效能的角度阐述了高校辅导员职业倦怠现象的成因,同时提出了克服职业倦怠的相应对策.     

Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections?

When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought.     

Do mayors matter? Reverse coattails on congressional elections in Brazil

In federal democracies, parties often invest in local politics as a strategy to improve their performance on upcoming national elections. In this study, I use the concept of reverse coattails to investigate how winning local elections affect upper-level electoral dynamics in Brazil. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), I show that parties in Brazil boost their national performance, earning more votes on House elections in districts where their members control local offices. I discuss how access to ‘‘pork” controlled by co-partisan House members and mechanical information gains explain these effects. Additionally, I use a Bayesian LASSO algorithm to address data sparsity in RDD designs, and to demonstrate the existence of pro-large party bias on the coattail effects. By disentangling the various effects of winning local elections, this paper contributes to a greater understanding of how parties build electoral strength in fragmented democracies.     

论优惠性货物原产地规则的双刃剑效应——兼及中国的实践

优惠性货物原产地规则可分为两大类,一为具体产品的原产地规则,另一为制度型原产地规则,前者主要包括CTC、VC及TP三种标准,后者主要包括微小含量规则、吸收规则、累积规则.其对区域经济发展具有双刃剑效应.中国已实施的七个优惠性原产地规则经历了由简单到复杂,由不完善到逐步完善的演变过程,在发挥应有的保护作用的同时,也在一定程度上限制了优惠待遇的利用.因此,在今后原产地规则的制订中宏观上要充分考虑原产地规则的双重效应;在微观标准设计上要充分发挥原产地规则的正面作用.     

The effect of EU structural funds on regional growth: assessing the evidence from Greece, 1990–2005

This paper brings empirical evidence on the impact of EU structural policy on regional income growth. The case of Greece over the period 1990–2005 is taken as an example. This period is characterized by the acceleration of the European integration process, with a central role assigned to the EU structural support to less prosperous regions. Regional growth is approached through the estimation of β-convergence equations using panel methods of estimation. The empirical results reveal a positive impact of structural funds support on regional growth while income convergence is enhanced. In addition, a significant influence of spatial income and unemployment spillovers on regional income growth is evidenced, illustrating the recent growth performance in Greece. Our results leave ample room for European regional policy to operate for the promotion of growth and the reduction of regional disparities.

无条件“调解优先”倾向应当刹车

随着民商审判中"调解热"的不断升温,无条件"调解优先"之风冲击着我国民商审判方式改革取得的成果,冲击着人们要求公开、公正、公平、透明的诉讼理念。本文对当前司法实务中出现的无条件调解优先倾向的态势和造成的负面影响进行了分析和批判,主张民商审判中调、判关系的定位,应当回归到最高人民法院提出的"能调则调,当判则判,调判结合,案结事了"的十六字指导原则上来。     

Identifying Unit-Dependency and Time-Specificity in Longitudinal Analysis: A Graphical Methodology

Longitudinal analysis in criminology and other social sciences has become an important research tool because it allows us to draw conclusions from observing how multiple units change over time. Unfortunately, its results are more vulnerable to potential influences of unusual observational units or periods of time. Current leverage diagnostics are designed for cross-sectional analysis and are fallible when applied to longitudinal models. This article introduces a graphical diagnostic methodology to systematically examine the sensitivity of longitudinal results to extreme observational units and periods of time—unit-dependency and time-specificity. Further the article illustrates its use with an example testing policy effects on black and white female victimization of intimate partner homicide. Results are displayed in an easily understood graph that provides a snapshot of the results' time-specific patterns and robustness to unit-dependency. Currently, comparable tests for panel analysis are tedious and cumbersome. With this new illuminating methodology, researchers and policy-makers can easily decide whether a time-specific or unit-dependent pattern is consequential.     

试论高校团员民主评议活动的效果

加强和改进团员民主教育评议工作的实效性,强化团员青年的模范意识和先进意识,促进团员的先进性教育,并以此引导青年学生树立崇高的理想,全面提高青年学生素质,对协助高校党组织做好学生思想政治工作具有非常深远而又积极的意义.     

误证中的记忆错误现象

证人的证言是证据的一个重要成分,在审判中起着重要作用。证人证言中的一个重要问题是证言的可靠性问题,即证人的证言是否属实,是否是对案件的真实描述。造成误证的原因很多,除了证人作证的各种动机等主观原因外,还有许多是由记忆机制这一客观原因造成的,这一情况是不容忽视的。本文将对由记忆机制导致的记忆错误做一些初步概述,并对如何避免记忆错误出现和如何唤起证人的真实记忆做一些初步探讨。