高校线上教学现状分析及对策研究

后疫情时代，线上教学已经成为高校教学手段的主要组成部分，将继续发挥重要作用，与此同时, 也暴露出诸多问题，有待改进。本研究从学生、授课教师、平台技术和管理制度四个方面对高校线上教学的现 状进行分析，并提出优化高校线上教学的建议。研究认为，线上教学虽然符合教学发展的要求，有利于传统学 习模式的变革，但也带来了缺少师生互动、教学管理缺少标准和规范等问题。研究建议，应釆取线上线下教学 相结合、提高教师线上教学能力、改进平台服务技术水平、改革教学管理制度、做好基础服务等措施，进一步 优化高校线上教学效果。     

A novel multiplex assay system based on 10 methylation markers for forensic identification of body fluids

Identifying the source of body fluids found at a crime scene is an essential forensic step. Some methods based on DNA methylation played significant role in body fluids identification. Since DNA methylation is related to multiple factors, such as race, age, and diseases, it is necessary to know the methylation profile of a given population. In this study, we tested 19 body fluid-specific methylation markers in a Chinese Han population. A novel multiplex assay system based on the selected markers with smaller variation in methylation and stronger tissue-specific methylation were developed for the identification of body fluids. The multiplex assay were tested in 265 body fluid samples. A random forest model was established to predict the tissue source based on the methylation data of the 10 markers. The multiplex assay was evaluated by testing the sensitivity, the mixtures, and old samples. For the result, the novel multiplex assay based on 10 selected methylation markers presented good methylation profiles in all tested samples. The random forest model worked extremely well in predicting the source of body fluids, with an accuracy of 100% and 97.5% in training data and test data, respectively. The multiplex assay could accurately predict the tissue source from 0.5 ng genomic DNA, six-months-old samples and distinguish the minor component from a mixture of two components. Our results indicated that the methylation multiplex assay and the random forest model could provide a convenient tool for forensic practitioners in body fluid identification.     

“美国模式”公共住房制度及其对我国的启示

公共住房建设及其管理政策作为美国政府公共事务管理方面的重要内容之一,已经走过了80多年的漫长发展历程.历经最初尝试、持续调整、发展完善三个重要阶段,美国的公共住房建设及其政策体系越来越成熟和完备.由此形成了所谓的“美国模式”.“美国模式”公共住房建设及其制度体系,主要得力于相关法案、财政政策、税收政策和管理政策等多方面的支持与保障,其在法律体系、制度建设、管理政策、市场运作、社会参与等方面的一些做法和成熟经验,对现阶段我国建立健全公共住房制度体系都有着重要的借鉴意义.     

Biased Budgeting in the Public Sector: Evidence from Italian Local Governments

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse, in terms of presence, determinants and purposes, the misrepresentation of expected revenues during budget formulation and the misrepresentation of actual revenues during budget execution. To this end, we use six-year panel data from Italian municipalities with populations above 15,000. Our results suggest that overestimations of current revenues are more frequent than underestimations, during both budget formulation and budget execution. In terms of determinants, our results highlight the impact on revenue misrepresentation of both political orientation and fiscal stress. Finally, in terms of purposes, we show that revenue underestimation during budget formulation and revenue overestimation during budget execution may contribute to the formation of surpluses. The former, in particular, may allow mayors to create a ‘war chest’ in non-election years, which can then be used to increase net borrowing on the eve of elections.     

Statistical Challenges in the Quantification of Gunshot Residue Evidence

The discharging of a gun results in the formation of extremely small particles known as gunshot residues (GSR). These may be deposited on the skin and clothing of the shooter, on other persons present, and on nearby items or surfaces. Several factors and their complex interactions affect the number of detectable GSR particles, which can deeply influence the conclusions drawn from likelihood ratios or posterior probabilities for prosecution hypotheses of interest. We present Bayesian network models for casework examples and demonstrate that probabilistic quantification of GSR evidence can be very sensitive to the assumptions concerning the model structure, prior probabilities, and the likelihood components. This finding has considerable implications for the use of statistical quantification of GSR evidence in the legal process.     

Urban Irregular Warfare and Violence Against Civilians: Evidence From a Colombian City

Defining terrorism and explaining how it occurs remains a contentious issue. This article attempts to generate new understandings on these topics by applying the work of Ehud Sprinzak's delegitimatization model to the Sea Shepherds. Evidence presented in the article suggests that the Sea Shepherd's present level of political violence passed through gradual phases. In this respect, it is possible to suggest that Sprinzak's model has applicability for maritime organizations, as well as terrestrial based groups. However, we also note that on the one hand, it may be possible to argue that in some respects the Sea Shepherds may constitute either a “blind spot” in the literature on terrorism and political violence, because its actions could in some circumstances be considered activism, militant direct action, piracy, vigilantism, terrorism, or eco-defense, which makes it very difficult to classify. On the other hand, that both the Sea Shepherds and the whalers may both engage in illegal activities, but are not prosecuted, may indicate that states and the international community may have neither the will nor the means to enforce laws against them. Therefore, they may be turning a blind eye to their actions. Throughout the article we maintain that the Sea Shepherds constitute an example of a gray area phenomenon. Despite the ambiguity surrounding their legal status and academic interpretations of their actions, the results of nearly three decades of the organization's activities, including its 2007 campaign to disrupt Japanese Antarctic Whaling, suggest that the Sea Shepherds may be best categorized as a vigilante group, because they claim they are seeking to enforce a legal status quo because of states' and the international community's inabilities or unwillingness to do so.     

次区域合作背景下国际河流通航利用的冲突模式——澜沧江—湄公河与图们江的实践比较

探索国际河流合作通航中的经验及模式,对于化解矛盾和早日实现图们江合作通航有着重要意义。以次区域合作为背景,运用地缘政治与地缘经济理论与方法,对澜沧江—湄公河与图们江通航实践进行比较分析,基于正反经验提出了合作通航的冲突模式。研究表明,在国际河流的合作通航中,地缘政治向地缘经济的转移是前提条件,次区域合作是主要推动力,多维利益的平衡是核心问题,签署和规范国际河流法是根本保障。针对图们江合作通航中的矛盾冲突,指出了化解途径。     

人民币汇率与中俄主要产品贸易分析

基于ARDL模型研究人民币汇率对中俄主要贸易品的影响,中对俄出口以"纺织品和机械制品"为样本,中从俄进口以"矿产品和木及木制品"为样本。研究结果显示:汇率升值不利于纺织品出口和木及木制品进口,但对机械制品出口和矿产品进口没有影响。俄罗斯国民产出增加对纺织品、机械制品出口有促进作用;中国国民产出增加对木及木制品进口影响较弱;矿产品进口主要受非经济因素影响。对此,应"扩大货币互换协议规模以规避纺织品、矿产品贸易的汇率风险;保持政治互信以稳定矿产品进口;积极发展产业内贸易以协调和促进未来中俄贸易发展"。     

Microstate Democracy: Majority or Consensus; Diffusion or Problem-Solving?

While several studies suggest that small country size is conducive to democracy, the understanding of this link between smallness and democracy is still less than complete. By examining the nature and profile of microstate democracy in the year 2005, this article aims at promoting a better understanding. Two research tasks are pursued. First, the article investigates if microstate democracy is predominantly about majority democracy, or alternatively consensus democracy, or a blend of majority and consensus. Second, while testing the validity of diffusion and rationality assumptions for explaining country choices of democratic form, the article aims at drawing forth a better appreciation of the foundations of microstate democracy. The findings indicate that smallness is particularly conducive to majority democracy, and that diffusion goes a long way to explain this small state preference for majority rule. However, the microstates within the majoritarian framework are often inclined to resort to non-majoritarian choices, and elements of rationality are therefore in the picture as well. Small size does not appear to associate systematically with culture to the exclusion of rationality or with rationality to the exclusion of culture.     

空间效应视角下中国省域碳排放总量的驱动因素分析

运用空间计量经济学模型实证分析中国省域碳排放的空间效应及驱动因素的结果显示,中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间自相关性和集群趋势,并主要集中在经济发达、人口密集和能源消费强度大的地区;能源消费强度、人口规模和人均GDP对碳排放总量影响显著,其中能源消费的影响最大;城市化、产业结构和技术创新对碳排放的影响不显著。该研究结论为我国城市化和产业结构升级进程中控制碳排放增量、国家和地方政府建立相应的碳减排鼓励政策和技术研发支持机制,以及各省域构建各具区域特色的低碳经济发展模式具有决策参考意义。